Coffee and Orange juice - long term outlook
- Thread starter jbtrader23
- Start date
Well, here we are a year later.
Wow, how things have changed. Atkins is bankrupt. Low Carb is dead. I wish I had shorted something low carb related. Errr...there will be more fads in the future.
Here's my checklist for future plays based on fear/panic:
-Long downward trend already in place.
-Major news stories about it (like the LA Times article)
-Evidence to the contrary right in front of your face. Like the supply/demand numbers. It seems logical to follow them. But they point backwards, not forwards. They didn't account for the low carb bust or the hurricanes.
-Someone else has to be wrong for you to be right. Not everyone can outperform the market. This is something I don't hear much from the talking heads.
-Must have patience
OJ recently went over $1.00. I'd expect a pull back or consolidation (at least to 85 cents). Maybe there could be a double bottom that would shake some of the bulls out.
Any other comments or ideas?
Wow, how things have changed. Atkins is bankrupt. Low Carb is dead. I wish I had shorted something low carb related. Errr...there will be more fads in the future.
Here's my checklist for future plays based on fear/panic:
-Long downward trend already in place.
-Major news stories about it (like the LA Times article)
-Evidence to the contrary right in front of your face. Like the supply/demand numbers. It seems logical to follow them. But they point backwards, not forwards. They didn't account for the low carb bust or the hurricanes.
-Someone else has to be wrong for you to be right. Not everyone can outperform the market. This is something I don't hear much from the talking heads.
-Must have patience
OJ recently went over $1.00. I'd expect a pull back or consolidation (at least to 85 cents). Maybe there could be a double bottom that would shake some of the bulls out.
Any other comments or ideas?
On the Fox News Channel last week, Jim mentioned that he's bullish on cotton.
http://www.mrci.com/pdf/ct.pdf
It had a huge rally in early '02 from 35 cents to almost 80 cents. This downleg looks like it could be a double bottom. I'll investigate the market further and see where things could go.
He's also very bullish on sugar.
http://www.mrci.com/pdf/ct.pdf
It had a huge rally in early '02 from 35 cents to almost 80 cents. This downleg looks like it could be a double bottom. I'll investigate the market further and see where things could go.
He's also very bullish on sugar.
jim is soros' pet dog.
I really like Jim but what most people don't realize is that he's been bullish on commodities (ex equities) since the early to mid 90s. He stayed with the call even when it went against him HUGE in the late 90s and early 00's:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?symb...art=1990-01-01&end=2005-08-12&id=p63238654558
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?symb...art=1990-01-01&end=2005-08-12&id=p63238654558
Now we're getting close to the mirror opposite of the spring of 2004. It has gone full circle.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060102/ap_on_bi_ge/florida_agriculture
"Nobody has seen this level of devastation for about 16 years,"
Time to start taking money off the table if you're still in some positions.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060102/ap_on_bi_ge/florida_agriculture
"Nobody has seen this level of devastation for about 16 years,"
Time to start taking money off the table if you're still in some positions.
It fascinates me how the OJ market has gone full circle since I first started this thread more than 2 years ago.
Suffice to say, I would be massively selling OJ right here at $1.90 if for some reason you're still holding on. It's bumping up against long term highs (back in the late 80's near $2.00). Sell, sell, sell!!
It's funny, I read awhile ago in the LA Times a story that pointed out all the reasons why OJ is high. Bad weather, real estate prices are sky high (why grow something boring like orange juice when Florida real estate is going through the roof).
I think the move in commodities for the most part is over. The CRB has doubled in 5 years.
http://www.mrci.com/pdf/cr.pdf
Lumber is looking interesting. Sugar could come down a little more. I would wait though for commodities in general to start losing their luster.
Suffice to say, I would be massively selling OJ right here at $1.90 if for some reason you're still holding on. It's bumping up against long term highs (back in the late 80's near $2.00). Sell, sell, sell!!
It's funny, I read awhile ago in the LA Times a story that pointed out all the reasons why OJ is high. Bad weather, real estate prices are sky high (why grow something boring like orange juice when Florida real estate is going through the roof).
I think the move in commodities for the most part is over. The CRB has doubled in 5 years.
http://www.mrci.com/pdf/cr.pdf
Lumber is looking interesting. Sugar could come down a little more. I would wait though for commodities in general to start losing their luster.
You are very good......great trade.
I suspect that we will have to bump around here at 1.30 for a bit, and perhaps there will be significant correction. No matter--I have to stay long based upon what I perceive in the weekly chart to be upside potential. I am ahead right now about 22 cents per trading unit. ($8,250)--let's see how it plays out. I don't have a clue about fundamentals on coffee except to know that it is a commodity like OJ that can have a multi year bull market--not like the row crops that renew each year and correct their prices back to "normal".