I've put on a moderate coffee position now - some around 78-79, the rest around 76. I am not going to get faked out with a stop loss, but if it makes a sustained move below 68-69 for more than a week or so, I'll reassess my position.
OJ finally has become interesting. After some steady accumulation around the 57 level (Sep 04 future), which provided a serious floor under the market, it has now started rallying and has broken above 60. I have started buying a small position in response to this sign of underlying demand. However, I anticipate we will get pullbacks, so I will be looking to add on those, rather than chase the market up. It is rare at the very beginning of a bull market for prices to just ramp up with no opportunity to get on board. Usually you get plenty of backing and filling.
However, with us still only $5 above the lows, and well below the average historical price, this is IMO a great long-term buying opportunity. The bearish sentiment just adds to the picture.
Sugar has also been interesting of late. Whilst volatile, the market has shrugged off reversal days such as 2nd and 18th June, and is only just below 12 month highs. I think this market remains interesting, but it is a real tug of war at the moment, so I would be a bit more careful than in coffee or OJ.
Overall, I think a basket of these 3 commodities will be worth considerably more in the next 1-2 years.
