Cocoa near all time high

[Drawdown Addict]

Well, let me explain it to you, again ...

I never said it is impossible to trade agricultures based on chart patterns only, i said you will burn your fingers if you do, sooner or later.

Let me give you an example, lets say a disastrous weather event happens, such as a flooding or a hurricane or whatever and destroys a massive part of the crop, what do you think will happen to the futures price?

Or do you think that hurricane is going to wait for your fancy chart pattern to complete?

Not to mention like Snuskpelle said, climat change will impact crops as well, it is getting harder (due to extreme drought or extreme rainfall) to grow certain crops, which will result in less yield and higher prices.

The droughts or heavy rainfall aren't going to wait for your fancy chart pattern either.

Friendly advice, stop calling what everyone else says bullshit and you might learn a thing or two. You don't need to act like you know it all.

If there is one market in which fundamentals are important, and it's not even only weather related, it's agriculture and if you don't keep up to date on those, sooner or later you will burn your fingers on them ...

https://www.cmegroup.com/education/...es/fundamentals-and-agricultural-futures.html

I actually like that a weather analysis would help you to trade these markets. Obviously hoping that these heat waves are just part of a cycle and we won't be facing extinction.

Looking at other futures where a fundamental analysis is so disconnected from the actual market, seeing markets that can be analysed within a range is kind of a relief. We might even be able to call ourselves traders!

 

[Money Trust]

From a purely technical standpoint, I'd be eyeing the 3600-3800 area. If price does turn around, it's likely to be from that area. But, I don't see anything bearish yet.

 

[murray t turtle]

Markets like cacao and oranges etc for example are entirely different from indexes like ES or commodities like oil.

You can't just trade them based on the chart, you have to know what's going on in those markets, weather, crop expectations etc, otherwise you are going to burn your fingers on them.

1 serious weather disaster could have a serious impact on these markets for a long, long time. Chart patterns aren't going to change anything about that.

%%
US Apples main harvest , generally,is SEPT season \ that's why we see so many price downtrends then.
But in mid south\ JULy + Aug is Macintosh red ripe apple drop.
barchart.com has it a 100% buy[all time frames] ;
but its also showing a monthly + weekly top.[little umbrella on weekly + monthly means top]
NOT in that, but i would not want to short any super uptrend like that, based on technicals.
Strange, stocks [SPY,S&P 5oo] tend to drop in SEPT also.Some apples drop in JUN\JUL.
Thanks .

 

[Sekiyo]

barchart.com has it a 100% buy[all time frames]

Tops happen when everything’s rosy
Gotta wait for the market to shrug good news.

 

[Sekiyo]

Crowded market on the long side
Jason Shapiro. Where are you ?

 

[murray t turtle]

Tops happen when everything’s rosy
Gotta wait for the market to shrug good news.

%%
EVEN with a barchart.com ''top'' signal on monthly, weekly + daily charts\
intraday 60 minutes, not going down much. Its still a 100% buy on all time frames even with the top signal .
I all ways weight technicals more , myself;
but the cash metals dealer cares NOT about my don channels or ma.LOL. Funds + fundamentals win in the end.
MY JUN+ JulY mac red apple drop illustration can apply;
but some commercials put them in refrigerator / + sell so as not to disturb price uptrend.
For downtrends i like XOM sector which is actually a bit down JAN-JUL

 

[Sekiyo]

What worse could happen ?

 

[murray t turtle]

What worse could happen ?

View attachment 318470

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WORST?? The worst for me would be try try to make consistant profits off smaller counter-trends ;
like a good[edit maintrend] trend myself.
Congrats on your doWntics call;
barchart.com still has it a 96% buy/100% buy medium /100%buy long term.
{Maybe should not note this, even though i'm fairly sure its true. Larry ''mint'' Hite said,i noticed he had almost every book on power in his library. One of the biggest coffee traders took me to a dinner/ feast, and 5 times asked me Larry, how do you trade coffee, I know where all the boats are, I know all the ministers....??
Larry told him, I dont even drink coffee,LOL I trade risk. Wow that whale trader lost $100 million, Larry said ,looks like he did not get the risk message. Jack Schwager book}

 

[Sekiyo]

%%
WORST?? The worst for me would be try try to make consistant profits off smaller counter-trends ;
like a good[edit maintrend] trend myself.
Congrats on your doWntics call;
barchart.com still has it a 96% buy/100% buy medium /100%buy long term.
{Maybe should not note this, even though i'm fairly sure its true. Larry ''mint'' Hite said,i noticed he had almost every book on power in his library. One of the biggest coffee traders took me to a dinner/ feast, and 5 times asked me Larry, how do you trade coffee, I know where all the boats are, I know all the ministers....??
Larry told him, I dont even drink coffee,LOL I trade risk. Wow that whale trader lost $100 million, Larry said ,looks like he did not get the risk message. Jack Schwager book}

Not calling a top here.
Just looking for a decent short signal on a commodity near its ATH.

Some would say the less they know about something. The better it is. Trading risk without bias is being focused on what matters. Without conviction nor predefined expectations.

Knowing deeply about something doesn’t always provide an edge. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

I’ll be forever trading the tape.
Each one his own approach.

Anyway …

If some of you guys want to trade fundamentals,
Then go for it but don’t forget: Only Price Pays.

News failure would be my fundamental catalyst.
Market going up / down on bad / good news

 

[murray t turtle]

Not calling a top here.
Just looking for a decent short signal on a commodity near its ATH.

Some would say the less they know about something. The better it is. Trading risk without bias is being focused on what matters. Without conviction nor predefined expectations.

Knowing deeply about something doesn’t always provide an edge. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

I’ll be forever trading the tape.
Each one his own approach.

Anyway …

If some of you guys want to trade fundamentals,
Then go for it but don’t forget: Only Price Pays.

News failure would be my fundamental catalyst.
Market going up / down on bad / good news

%%
Looks like you made a good [small] counter-trend call;
actually the barchart.com little umbrella signal on a temporary top[chart] can help, but its still rated 100% buy, long + medium term.[80% buy short term]
Funds + fundamentals win in the end.
[But here is one of the main ways i liked to read charts;
that whole super trend/ is full of many weekly temporary tops[countertrends] LOL
Good points on price pays