Cocoa near all time high
- Thread starter Sekiyo
- Start date
Sorry no. I wouldn't short ag based on historical top like that; in fact, I don't trade ags at all because it's so weather dependent. We're living in times where the planet is going to hell thanks to fossil fueled warming. E.g. African countries that produce cocoa sit in the already warmest part of the world. So expect historical patterns to be at risk of breaking.
I mean it's certainly tradable but you really need to research the fundamental situation causing the up trend to make a sane bet with or against it.
I mean it's certainly tradable but you really need to research the fundamental situation causing the up trend to make a sane bet with or against it.
I don't mind fundamentals.
The chart is going to tell when to go short.
Looks like a nice spot but it's too early (currently)
I'd rather buy strength on a short term basis.
Markets like cacao and oranges etc for example are entirely different from indexes like ES or commodities like oil.
You can't just trade them based on the chart, you have to know what's going on in those markets, weather, crop expectations etc, otherwise you are going to burn your fingers on them.
1 serious weather disaster could have a serious impact on these markets for a long, long time. Chart patterns aren't going to change anything about that.
That's bullshit
I talked about shorting Corn back in Oct 2022
The price was around 686$ then. It's 493$ right now.
Everyone said the exact same nonsense. No don't. Look at Fundamentals.
Ok got lucky once.
Let's see in 3 or 4 months where the price of Cocoa stands out.
You guys forgot the green lumber fallacy.
Paul Tudor Jones made a bunch of money trading them.
The guy went so deep into fundamentals that he thought the lumber was green.
When Cocoa starts to crack down on the weekly,
I'll be there shorting it. Don't worry.
Not saying the price can't make a new ATH
Maybe 4800 but we sure gonna revisit 2800 or even 1800
Now I am looking for a low risk entry which we do not have yet.
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I'd suggest you read my comment again and this time actually make sure you actually understand what it means before you make yourself look like a fool, again.
Oh yeah ... Whomever doesn't fit your model is a fool.
Thank you but I've read your post correctly,
Upon a 2nd and unnecessary reading.
Stop wasting my time.
Cocoa yields have not met expectations, apparently, so demand is exceeding supply.
Main reason seems to be a heavy rain season in other parts of the planet, which caused dryer conditions at cocoa plantations.
https://time.com/6291600/cocoa-chocolate-high-price-russia/
This market might be a real good candidate for a proper fundamental analysis.
Main reason seems to be a heavy rain season in other parts of the planet, which caused dryer conditions at cocoa plantations.
https://time.com/6291600/cocoa-chocolate-high-price-russia/
This market might be a real good candidate for a proper fundamental analysis.
Well, let me explain it to you, again ...
I never said it is impossible to trade agricultures based on chart patterns only, i said you will burn your fingers if you do, sooner or later.
Let me give you an example, lets say a disastrous weather event happens, such as a flooding or a hurricane or whatever and destroys a massive part of the crop, what do you think will happen to the futures price?
Or do you think that hurricane is going to wait for your fancy chart pattern to complete?
Not to mention like Snuskpelle said, climat change will impact crops as well, it is getting harder (due to extreme drought or extreme rainfall) to grow certain crops, which will result in less yield and higher prices.
The droughts or heavy rainfall aren't going to wait for your fancy chart pattern either.
Friendly advice, stop calling what everyone else says bullshit and you might learn a thing or two. You don't need to act like you know it all.
If there is one market in which fundamentals are important, and it's not even only weather related, it's agriculture and if you don't keep up to date on those, sooner or later you will burn your fingers on them ...
https://www.cmegroup.com/education/...es/fundamentals-and-agricultural-futures.html