Cocoa futures

[schizo]

Could be at a top, at least a short term one, in 3 trading days or so. TD Sell Setup9 was at day 6 on Friday. It would recycle a Sell Sequential13 but basically same deal either way. I'd look for a correction of some sort if a key low is broken
at that point.

View attachment 332130

Nice move back in Sept'23 when a prior Sell Sequential (far left) triggered.

This is what I'm seeing. The target has been met exactly to the T as of yesterday. Still need to monitor whether there's a follow-through come next week, but if there's a pullback, we should see 4300 (should be free money).

 

[SunTrader]

This is what I'm seeing. The target has been met exactly to the T as of yesterday. Still need to monitor whether there's a follow-through come next week, but if there's a pullback, we should see 4300 (should be free money).

View attachment 332132

Took another look and these are the zones I see for a potential top (know how you are a big "fan" of fibs lol):

4505-4544 already beyond
4656-4663 a bit tighter than 1st
4820-4807 if it reaches really overextended but commodities are known for blow-off tops!

 

[CannonTrading_Ilan]

I will be more eager to attack short side on break below 40 at this point if tyou are a longer term trader. Monthly chart below:

 

[schizo]

Man, that's a long wick. Looking pretty scary to me. This might be the cue that's it's finally reversing course. We'll find out shortly.

 

[schizo]

I will be more eager to attack short side on break below 40 at this point

I wouldn't mind catching a ride down short now and getting out at 40.

 

[maxinger]

extremely late thread.


The uptrend started very very long ago (14 months ago).

Those who bought it a few months ago should be laughing all the way to the bank.

Those who bought it recently should be having nightmares as the price
has already gone up so much.

Those who shorted it recently should be having nightmares as Cocoa is still
on the uptrend.

 

[TraDaToR]

if interested in spreads, a nice seasonal trade is setting up. Short Sept Cocoa and Long Dec Cocoa
View attachment 332072

Not that bad of an idea but we need a catalyst for the curve to plunge : ICE certified stocks increase, cocoa grindings down, good news from Ivory coast or Ghana...Never trade on seasonals only

 

[schizo]

extremely late thread.


The uptrend started very very long ago (14 months ago).

Those who bought it a few months ago should be laughing all the way to the bank.

Those who bought it recently should be having nightmares as the price
has already gone up so much.

Those who shorted it recently should be having nightmares as Cocoa is still
on the uptrend.

This ain't about buying, it's about shorting! Just look at that beauty! Today's the biggest selloff in months.

 

[TrailerParkTed]

This ain't about buying, it's about shorting! Just look at that beauty! Today's the biggest selloff in months.

View attachment 332503

How do I get in on the action without using Futures?

 

[maxinger]

This ain't about buying, it's about shorting! Just look at that beauty! Today's the biggest selloff in months.

View attachment 332503

Biggest selloff?

What is the reward : risk ratio?
Is it > 3:1?

If it is not, then it is a lousy trade.