CNBC Guest alleges: NFLX Cooking the Books

Quote from jedwards:

I personally know some people associated with accounting at Netflix. I highly doubt they would sit by idly and let shenanigans go on, especially if it would damage their reputations. They would either whistleblow or quit outright.

Sure, but this stuff is typically hatched by the CFO at the behest of the CEO. Look at ENE, WCOM, HLS, etc.
 
Quote from atticus:

Sure, but this stuff is typically hatched by the CFO at the behest of the CEO. Look at ENE, WCOM, HLS, etc.

Maybe 10 years ago, or with a smaller company, but I would highly doubt it today with a company as visible as NFLX. (BTW, I worked for a company where it turned out revenue was being faked by the CFO and CEO to inflate the stock price, the aftermath was surreal.)

There are too many peons that this has to filter through and no one wants their reputation to be tarnished being associated with a company involved in cooking the books.

Anyway this is just my opinion, I don't know anything one way or the other. Take it with the grain of salt that my opinion is worth :)
 
Keep riding the momentum. A stock like this can run for a long long time. Enjoy!

Quote from BwPirt:

I'm still long for the moment. I'll stay long unless something more concrete comes out about them cooking the books. Otherwise I'll look for another double.
 
Exactly, you took the words right out of my mouth. There are way too many eyes on NFLX. This clown who stated this THINKS NFLX is cooking the books? LOL. THINKS??????
I doubt this mofo can even read a balance sheet. If he sees they are cooking the books then spell it out and show exactly what they are doing.\ Otherwise STFU with spewing BS.

Quote from jedwards:

Maybe 10 years ago, or with a smaller company, but I would highly doubt it today with a company as visible as NFLX. (BTW, I worked for a company where it turned out revenue was being faked by the CFO and CEO to inflate the stock price, the aftermath was surreal.)

There are too many peons that this has to filter through and no one wants their reputation to be tarnished being associated with a company involved in cooking the books.

Anyway this is just my opinion, I don't know anything one way or the other. Take it with the grain of salt that my opinion is worth :)
 
Quote from Rearden Metal:

NFLX Netflix sinking on volume as CNBC guest discusses short idea on NFLX; says co is overstating cash flow and income (225.57 +2.48) -Update-

Brecken Capital founder, on CNBC, discusses why he is short shares of NFLX. Says accounting issues from Q2 to Q3 to Q4 have gotten worse. Co is overstating cash flow net income, according to him. Accounts payable rose well over 100% to completely wipe out cash flow. Co isn't generating any cash flow from their business if you adjust the accounts payable change and adjust to the fact that they are under amortizing on the net income side their content costs. Believes they are playing accounting games, it will catch up with them, and stock will move to well under $70.

He doesn't have to go to all this trouble to get NFLX stock price to drop so he stop the bleeding from his account. Tilson capitulated, which means the top is likely in :D

http://seekingalpha.com/article/252316-whitney-tilson-why-we-covered-our-netflix-short
 
Quote from atticus:

1.20 or so. The 130/150 put spread is 4.00. Both Jan12.

Better still; the 100/200/300 Jan12 fly is $36.


atticus, what about 150/200/300? you pay $6-7 more but less negative vega (since iv will go up if prediction is a falling underlying) and more downward protection.

also if you dont mind, what rule do you use to determine exit? i am thinking since this is such a wild stock, as soon as the max p&l price is hit i will exit even if it's far from expiration and without much profit.

Or do you usually wait until close to expiration for max profit. I guess exit rule is similar to a short straddle? minus the unbound risk.
 
Yes, fraud can happen in any company. I don't find anything particularly suspicious, though, about Netflix's content expenses or accounts payable. Content amortization seems to unchanged as a percentage of revenues in 2010 compared to 2009. In regard to cashflows from operations, an increase in accounts payable would also result in at least partially offsetting increases in current assets or expenses.
 
There's outright fraud in the accounts at ALL the big banks right now, and has been for probably the last 5 years.

Yes, they're probably special cases but still it can easily happen to netflix.

Anyway, the guy on the telly didn't say fraud, he mentioned strange things happening on the accounts, more like playing with the numbers rather than anything outright illegal.
 
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