Quote from flytiger:
Tell me. Why did they get out? 12 guys couldn't have been all massive fails. What's the mood.
I see CNBC lament all the time about the lack of retail participation. Beat a dog, and he'll leave home. But I've been saying that for years.
For the record, I am completely retail, although I have made more money than most retail traders over the decades. Professional traders listen to what I say when we meet in person. I take that humbly as a sign that they know I know what they know.
One sent me a cheery email. He is back selling motorhomes because his trading suffered and he stopped. He is a smart one. He plans to start again after regaining his capital.
One a few years ago went back to selling mortgages and is still in that business. Sharp and charitable, she will be fine but likely stopped after a big loss and will not return.
One has gone back to work. He was revered by other traders because he talked a good game and has a fantastic new method. He was going to publish and I said no. I offered to finance a trial but he sent me too many emails and would not focus on my time. I am too busy to read his stuff. I pulled my offer and he is now working in town. (Also mad at me I think.)
One lady with a big heart had a string of losses and wiped out tearfully and went to tend to her grand kids.
and so on and so on.
I see these root causes:
Looking for magic that doesn't exist (gurus, systems, analysts etc.)
Overtrading their account size. My initial entry sizes can be larger than their entire account but small %ages of my total capital and enormous lines of credit. I use some methods that I have never seen published or written about much. They seem to work consistently for me.
Thinking for whatever reason they are invincible or special or different and bad things will not happen to them.
Dieing by small bites or one giant bite and not having the psychological faith and capital to get through the rough spots.
I do think trading has changed recently. So what, it is always changing and always staying the same in some parts. The 1999 wave when floor traders were best by computer savvy teenagers is over. Many little traders and gurus were born there. There used to be integrity in the chop. Now the chop is a lot more random I think.
One irony. If you believe trading is a zero sum game minus commissions, then the latest moves by the investment houses are wiping out the little fish. Just like an ecology, what happens to the little fish will work its way up the chain and wipe out the big fish in time as well. The little fish and the big fish are not independent.
Hope that helps.