CME "Trade Against a Pro" Trading Challenge - December 8th Sunday - 13th Friday
- Thread starter wrbtrader
- Start date
#9 was actually in the red by 7K until the last day and still made the top 10 with 1 profitable day. Actually, the daily range for the SPX on March 8th was only 22 points and if they had the 10 max. contracts limitation, the max. he could have made was 22 x 10 x 50 = 11K. Even if I double it (he had 2 trades) and his losing trade (using the NQ let's say) came back with similar profits that is a 22K profit, yet he somehow made 74K that day.
Pretty much the same problem for #8.
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Well, I think I solved the contest. As long as the market moves 65-70 ES points in either direction in the next week, I can guarantee you a top 10 spot:
1. Make 2 accounts.
2. At the open on Sunday night you go long ES and NQ 10-10 contracts. And short the same in the other account.
3. During the week once the market moved away 65ish ES points from your entry, you close the position. You hope the range won't extend much beyond that.
4. At the end you brag that you made top 10 out of a thousand entries.
In the last contest between March 3rd and 8th the market had a bad week and went down from 2816 to 2722 (was the max. range). 4 red days with the bounce coming on Friday.Interestingly, 4 of the top 10 traders captured 66 to 78 ES points with very few (2-6 trades) and assuming max. contracts using ES and NQ. I think they used the same strategy. Sure, they still had to get out close to the bottom, but that was only 1 decision to make the whole week.
1. Make 2 accounts.
2. At the open on Sunday night you go long ES and NQ 10-10 contracts. And short the same in the other account.
3. During the week once the market moved away 65ish ES points from your entry, you close the position. You hope the range won't extend much beyond that.
4. At the end you brag that you made top 10 out of a thousand entries.
In the last contest between March 3rd and 8th the market had a bad week and went down from 2816 to 2722 (was the max. range). 4 red days with the bounce coming on Friday.Interestingly, 4 of the top 10 traders captured 66 to 78 ES points with very few (2-6 trades) and assuming max. contracts using ES and NQ. I think they used the same strategy. Sure, they still had to get out close to the bottom, but that was only 1 decision to make the whole week.
In real trading the CME could ding you on that for it being a wash trade. A grey area to be sure.
I came up with a better version of the plan that requires only 1 account. The only task/problem is to identify the min. or max. for the week, otherwise it requires nothing else. And the week should be somehow trending and not choppy.
I think next week will be good in action. We gots the FOMC, ECB, and Core retail sales, US bond auctions, and there may be blather about the Dec 15th tariff thing by Trump before the close on Friday.
Above quote from destriero thread @ https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...-trading-challenge.338320/page-7#post-4975492
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I'm sure the CME Group did their research or beta test to determine that a trader whom trades with real money is not going to put aside their real money trading for one month to simulate trade in a one month challenge.
Thus, they most likely determine a trader will / may put aside their real money trading for a 5 day simulator challenge to try to win the prize or test something new in their trading. Remember, its a promotion tactic by the CME Group to gather interest in their Futures & Options products. They do not want a long duration challenge that will most likely gather fewer participants versus having several smaller duration challenges.
Also, the CME Group may have determine that some participants may use the challenge to test a new trade signal strategy, test new exit strategy, test new profit targets, test new money management rules or whatever prior to doing the same in their real money trading.
My point, some may not be trying to win a prize. Thus, for them...luck does not become a variable. Instead, some traders are using the challenge for other reasons such as strategy development.
Regardless, the ultimate factor will be the market...not luck because whatever market conditions show up during the challenge...the skill or edge will go towards those traders that are familiar with that type of market condition and obviously know they usually perform well in it. For example, a trend trader, swing trader will do poorly in the competition if the markets are in a tight trading range for those 5 days of the challenge whereas the same traders will do well if the market conditions are in a strong trending price action.
Sure, luck will be involved for some but there will be others in which luck has nothing to do with it regardless if their results land them on the leader board.
A personal friend of mine (childhood friend in France) and a guy that went to the U.S. to get his PhD in finance that I tease via calling him the "king of money management"...he had 25 trades.
Every one of his trades were winners. Yet, he didn't even finish in the top 50 traders.
In contrast, the guy/gal that finish 9th on the leader board (someone I do not know) had only 2 trades...1 winner and 1 loser...it was the winner (a big one) that got that person on the leader board because market conditions change in the last trading day that allowed that trader to catch a big trend.
Which one do you think I will say was lucky ?
Simply, its impossible to determine if luck is involved or not involved with the prize winners and leader board unless you specifically know the purpose for those particular traders and you specifically know them that enter the challenge. Thus, its easy to sit back and say someone is lucky if we do not know them nor know anything about their trading style like I said about the person I didn't know that finish 9th on the leader board.
To me, he was lucky whereas someone else that may know him may say he was not lucky and caught that trend accordingly to a trade strategy that has a positive expectancy and performs well in real money trading too.
The trading against a pro challenge starts today. Good luck (pun intended)
wrbtrader
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Indeed, I was trying to get into a call with a limit, went market, and then thought, WTF am I trading here? Where are the quotes on either side of the table?