CME Housing Futures

Which way is the US housing market going?

  • The market will continue to rise

    Votes: 5 8.9%

  • The market will flatten out

    Votes: 8 14.3%

  • The market will drop

    Votes: 35 62.5%

  • Don't know or don't care

    Votes: 8 14.3%
  • Total voters
    56
G

guy2

CME launched its Housing Futures yesterday. I have done a little bit of research on it and posted some charts and spreadsheets in this topic - I'd like to hear your opinions.

Personally I think that the housing market is going to drop but that is not what the futures are telling us. What do you think?
 
kick ass post. thanks.

This seems to suggest that indeed mtg rates should cool off thru the summer and fall, giving speculators one last chance to cash out.

I also expect housing to take a huge beating...
 
Quote from GlobalFinancier:

Quite interesting.
If I could, I would buy puts in those housing futures :D.
More...

I believe that there are options on the futures so you can.
 
From what I can see so far there has only been 1 contract traded in the composite index in the Aug and 1 in the Nov contract and those were both transacted today.
 
Housing's gonna take an enormus beating......The Chicago Condo market is already begining to look somber.......perfect timing on the part of the CME to get these products up and trading.

The word around the CME is that there's huge interest in these things, and that they should find good liquidity real quick.....
 
Quote from guy2:

CME launched its Housing Futures yesterday. I have done a little bit of research on it and posted some charts and spreadsheets in this topic - I'd like to hear your opinions.

Personally I think that the housing market is going to drop but that is not what the futures are telling us. What do you think?
More...


Are your charts and research on ET?? post a link???

they are alot more liquid than anyone thought they would be at the start.
 
I don't see any trades either -- on the CME site.

I guess pricing is based on this Case-Schiller index.

I wonder what kind of deal CME has with them -- much less how they derive their prices for each metro area?

Seems like there is a lot of room for fudging an index like this.

Having said that I like the concept. Be interesting to see what kind of spreads develop if it ever takes off.
 
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