CME Group Announces Launch of Bitcoin Futures

Illini Trader said:
You could be right but it still seems to me that Bitcoin is a totally different animal. The real price is what one person is willing to accept to part with a bitcoin. Perhaps the futures market will influence the real Bitcoin owners but without any physical delivery component to the futures market, it is still just play money.
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No, I'm not saying that the futures market will influence real bitcoin owners. It's just how trading and hedging in general works.

The futures and bitcoin spot will be linked due to arbitrage... although the level will be dependent on whether flows in and out the spot market can be done efficient. The most active/liquid product gets to be the most efficient and best reflects price in supply/demand. That means that if the underlying volume in futures is 10x that of the spot, it will provide more info about the 'correct' price according to supply/demand.

The fact that arbitrage is possible, will mean one leads the other and IMO that could be end up being BTC being arbitraged on the basis of the futures price... not the other way around.

It's a similar thing with ES futures vs SP500 spot index. Which leads which lags? IMO that's generally futures lead the spot, since the immediate size available in ES futures is bigger than available in the underlying stocks book. Sometimes this reverses, when for instance there is company or sector specific news and those stocks jump before the future... making the spot move before futures do.

Same can happen in BTC. If volume will mean a more efficient market in the futures, tighter b/a-spreads... if you just daytrade or short term hold you could prefer the futures. If there's a sudden demand or supply in the BTC spot, that would temporarily lead the futures. And especially on expiry, this will happen.
 
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Overnight said:
IMHO, everyone should just STFO about what is going to happen with the CME futures thingy. We just don't know what is going to happen yet.

Let us sit and wait to see.
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Hey mate... better be prepared than being like a deer staring at the headlights :wtf: ;)
 
I think without physical delivery this will be a still-born product, like many other recent “exchange innovations”. Unless, of course, some 3rd party steps in to provide a liquid EFP market.
 
Overnight said:
IMHO, everyone should just STFO
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Well, why don't we start with you? GTFO of this thread if you don't like it. Once you leave this thread voila! no problem for you. In the main time we still exchange ideas, because WHY NOT?
 
I'm wondering about the timing of CME's announcement.

What are the likelihood of this current parabolic push in bitcoin being driven by the institutional players on CME all having accumulated BTC in advance of this announcement, only to sell the news to all the frantic dumb money rushing into BTC now?

I say pretty high..
 
Fileiro said:
What are the likelihood of this current parabolic push in bitcoin being driven by the institutional players on CME all having accumulated BTC in advance of this announcement, only to sell the news to all the frantic dumb money rushing into BTC now?
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BTC has gone from 3,000 after the mid Sept 40% drop from 5,000, to 7500 in recent days so it is sure due for a sharp drop after the fork. I think @sle may be right. A futures trader in this market will have to have a pee cup at the trading desk and nitro tablets ready for the heart.

One more thing, the dumb money that chased Apple at its peaks all made money and are still making money. Bitcoin will be 20,000 at a minimum by the end of 2018.
 
Illini Trader said:
BTC has gone from 3,000 after the mid Sept 40% drop from 5,000, to 7500 in recent days so it is sure due for a sharp drop after the fork. I think @sle may be right. A futures trader in this market will have to have a pee cup at the trading desk and nitro tablets ready for the heart.

One more thing, the dumb money that chased Apple at its peaks all made money and are still making money. Bitcoin will be 20,000 at a minimum by the end of 2018.
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Yes, I'm also very bullish on bitcoin long-term, just not convinced that the retirees and the shoe-shine boys scrambling into this current frenzy all have the stones to hold on once bitcoin corrects another 40-50%, unlike those savvy AAPL investors ;)
 
Fileiro said:
Yes, I'm also very bullish on bitcoin long-term, just not convinced that the retirees and the shoe-shine boys scrambling into this current frenzy all have the stones to hold on once bitcoin corrects another 40-50%, unlike those savvy AAPL investors ;)
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You are exactly correct on this, they panic and that is part of the reason Bitcoin corrects so much. It just keeps going down until all the weak hands have thrown in the towel. You have to really comprehend Bitcoin to watch it correct so much and just go about your business and let it ride.
 
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