Cme, Bot

[prt_systems]

Quote from Johnny Walker:

.....Electronic trading will make these products very user freindly and I can see the public getting involved again like they did in the 70's. This could be the wild card for the cbot over the next 15 years.

It was every CME members dream to trade live catlle ... that was before the IMM started. After the IMM took off all the ag traders would keep looking for a reason that would lead to the big re-ignition in ag trading .......

I think its just wishful thinking that an electronic market in ag contracts will lead to volume ....but we will see..... certainly is a path that the bot should be developing regardless .....

 

[katesdp]

Quote from FuturesTrader71:

Don't forget the Big DOW contract. It makes it the highest $ tick increment of any electronic index product offered in US.

ZB is $31.25 / tick

 

[FuturesTrader71]

Quote from katesdp:

ZB is $31.25 / tick

Index futures product....

 

[$CostAverageMAN]

BOT Still moving after I did a little profit taking at 114 for half my position. oops

Well now I guess my cost puts me at 300 shares @ 60.75
since I sold 1/2 my position.

Didn't hold 118 which I thought could be heavy resistance.

I'll be buying those 300 back if we ever go under PAR again

 

[FuturesTrader71]

Quote from $CostAverageMAN:

BOT Still moving after I did a little profit taking at 114 for half my position. oops

Well now I guess my cost puts me at 300 shares @ 60.75
since I sold 1/2 my position.

Didn't hold 118 which I thought could be heavy resistance.

I'll be buying those 300 back if we ever go under PAR again

How about starting a BOT journal?

 

[$CostAverageMAN]

Sold the remaing shares at 118.75

It was a nice ride but a little over bought going into the March 8th vote on electronic Ag. futures...

I will be back int under 110 staging my buys.

 

[$CostAverageMAN]

$CostAverageMAN

I am posting at

Forums--tradingforaliving--journals--want to share

 

[mcurto]

I think the ultimate value for the CBOT stock lies in the movement of the long end of the yield curve. We all know the volumes that Eurodollars can do when there is actually some volatility in the short end the past few years (3 million plus contracts on a bunch of days, another 1 million plus including options). The biggest growth is potentially in the 10yr and 30yr futures and options contracts. Pension funds are scrambling for duration and 30yr futures replicate that perfectly. The 10yr futures contract is the biggest hedge for mortgages and other cash market derivatives users. Imagine if volatility doubles from the current levels and begins replicating the volatility found throughout the 1980's and in 1997 and 1998. I have said this plenty of times but could easily see the 30yr futures doing 600,000 to 800,000 contracts a day and the 10yr possibly approaching between 1,500,000 and 2,000,000 contracts a day. Not to mention all of the options markets for the Treasuries are very steady volume producers as well. If the grains go electronic I don't see an enormous pick-up in volume. Right now the pension and long-only commodity index funds are happy with their situation. They will continuing rolling their long positions for the next 10 years, and could care less if its done electronically or in the pit, as long as they can roll their 20,000 lot long position in corn they are set. Some of the more active hedge funds will probably attract more volume to the grains, but tough to say it will even compare to interest rate volume at the CBOT.

 

[duece]

What's the current average daily volume on the 10 and 30 year's?

 

[mcurto]

During non-rollover periods the ten years most days will trade about 600,000 to 800,000 contracts, 30yr will trade between 300,000 and 400,000 contracts. The five year note also trades about 500,000 a day and finally the two year has begun trading about 100,000 a day as well. Remember, these volumes are during periods of extremely low volatility, especially in the long end of the curve. All of the aforementioned contracts do very solid volumes in the options as well (with electronic volumes definitely beginning to pick up pace, mostly from the Man Financial New York and London offices crossing between customers and locals). You can say that the CBOT has 18% of the gold market, but intuitively it is much less, look at the open interest comparisons, that is trully how you guage whether or not the real customers (funds rather than day traders) are beginning to shift to the electronic contracts.