CM69's stock picking journal

C

cashmoney69

brownsfan019 had this idea, so here it is . :)

This is not a paper trading journal!.

I give the symbol of a stock, and a "buy", "sell" or "short" rating, and a time frame.

For each symbol, I will give a grade of 'A' , 'B', and 'F' after the time frame has expired

here is how the grades are rated:

F - the stock went in the opposite direction of my call (pt missed)

B - the stock traded sideways ( pt missed)

A - my call happened at, or before the determined time frame (pt reached)

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Prices will be given, but the # of shares will be left out for the reason I stated above. I will use the prices to track %'age p/l performance.

.... I hope this works

If you guys have any suggestions on how I could do this better, please let me know.
 
WIRE Buy @ 23.70 PT 27.15 (3.45) ( 10 day hold)

This stock has been in a five day decline, with support at 23.10 on daily charts. MFI seems to have topped at the high 47's, but momentum is holding up, slightly over 1%. Bollinger bands are tightening, and the 12MA has rounded out and is about to cross the 20MA. 26.25 is resistance.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WIRE&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p40997977358


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APOL Short @ 37.65 PT 36.80 ( .85)(6 day hold)

35.64 looks like support for this stock while 38.00 would make a good resistance point. Here's why; APOL is right at the upper bands, and MFI is in the low 70's, and is coming down. ROC is holding up, and over the two week rally in this stock, volume ramained rather weak. On a good note, APOL is above the 7, 12 and 20 MA's.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=APOL&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p40997977358
 
Short calls on:

GROW to 47.00 ( 5 days )

MA to 99.00 (5 days)

GES to 60.00 (5 days)

MTH to 47.00 ( 4 days)

SPF to 24.50 ( 4 days)

OIS to 33.00 ( 5 days)

ERTS to 53.90 (10 days)

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Buy calls on:

HUM to 57.00 (10 days)
 
lol I'm not too good at this. From now on, all stocks will be graded on a monthly basis. Assigning a time frame for which a stock must move is too hard and not a good idea.


A = 2 ( 75% +)
B = 1 (45% + )
f = 0 ( 0 - 44%)


--

ma "a"
erts "a"

ois "b"
hum "b"
ges "b"
wire "b"

grow "f"
apol "f"
mth "f"
spf "f"

--

Score: 40% (F) 8 out of possible 20
 
new calls for jan 02 - jan 18th


Buy ISRG @ 96.30 roc (momentum) is down 9.2%, and MFI is heading into over-sold territory. Support at 94.25- 95.00. If the stock doesn't fall to these levels, I'd like to buy into strength, which is why my buy rating is at 96.30. This call doesn't count unless 96.30 is reached.

Short Swy @ 34.50


Buy WMT @ 46.20
 
I would still think you should set a target price on these, even though you aren't going to set a time frame. At least have some expectation of how much you expect to make per equity and set a limit order?

I also like the way you defended your picks in your second post.

Cheers
 
Quote from cashmoney69:

new calls for jan 02 - jan 18th


Buy ISRG @ 96.30 roc (momentum) is down 9.2%, and MFI is heading into over-sold territory. Support at 94.25- 95.00. If the stock doesn't fall to these levels, I'd like to buy into strength, which is why my buy rating is at 96.30. This call doesn't count unless 96.30 is reached.

Short Swy @ 34.50


Buy WMT @ 46.20
More...

As of today:

ISRG up 12.20 from long call

SWY down 1.05 from short call

WMT up 1.91 from last long call

my grade: A
 
March 6 - April 6 calls

CFC w/ buy limit @ 34.00
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CFC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p95098924036

This is an s/r play, which seems to be in the 34/35 area


BRCM w/ buy limit @ 29.70
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BRCM&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p95098924036

S/R play. Support at 29/30 area


SNDK w/ buy stop @ 41.50
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SNDK&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p95098924036

By the time 41.5 is reached, it will have broken its previous downtrend, and if on high volume, will confirm the breakout is real. I need a 7.4% rise for 41.5 to be reached, and if so: ROC will be positive by 1.3%, and MFI by 45.9 ... Both MA's will have also been crossed.
 
Quote from cashmoney69:

March 6 - April 6 calls

CFC w/ buy limit @ 34.00
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CFC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p95098924036

This is an s/r play, which seems to be in the 34/35 area


BRCM w/ buy limit @ 29.70
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BRCM&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p95098924036

S/R play. Support at 29/30 area


SNDK w/ buy stop @ 41.50
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SNDK&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p95098924036

By the time 41.5 is reached, it will have broken its previous downtrend, and if on high volume, will confirm the breakout is real. I need a 7.4% rise for 41.5 to be reached, and if so: ROC will be positive by 1.3%, and MFI by 45.9 ... Both MA's will have also been crossed.
More...

----

CFC :: trade ending at 33.66
Down .34 cents
review: Even though this trade ended in the red, it's not by much. I'm still bullish on this stock.


BRCM :: trade ending at 0
trade not taken
review: BRCM was falling back in march, and I thought that 29.7 would be a good support level. Looking back at the chart, 29.7 was never reached. Of course at the time I made the call, I couldn't have known such a thing.


SNDK :: trade ending at 44.50
Up 3.00
review: Looking back at the chart, if this trade were real I would have been in, on the day of the breakout (march 20th), then the next day it gapped up 2.25 !. The downside to this is I would have had of waited 14 days, because this call was made on the 6th of march (07).
 
calls for April 9th - May 9th 07

CFC - Still bullish. MFI and ROC began to rise in early march around the 12th despite the decline in price. 13 and 21 MA look like they'll cross soon, and bearish volume has been average for about the past 2 weeks. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CFC&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p67793429132 /// http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CFC&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p82044474399 . Buy stop at 35.00

LEH - Bearish on this one, as the long term trend (weekly) has nothing good to say. Trend as well as indicators are negative, AND I see a bearish pennant that has formed on the weekly as well to enforce my beliefe that LEh goes lower. 13, and 21 MA's will most likely cross next week, ROC falling nicely and MFI topped in October of 06 and has been steadily declining as well. Price also broke the 50 EMA which can act as support..but not this time. We're beginning to see a bounce in the last few days (on daily) which I dont think will get much higher than 74. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LEH&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p67793429132 /// http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LEH&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p67793429132 Short stop at 70

OIH - Bullish. I like OIH for the simple reason that we are heading into the summer, and like clock work, oil goes up. All indicators look great for OIH except for the decline in volume...however thats probably because it's going to a resistance level at 150. weekly ( http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=OIH&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p82044474399 ), daily( http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=OIH&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p67793429132 ) . buy stop at 151.00
 
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