Eh, I have yet to see any actual analysis around here. Long before I joined this place I did a ton of analysis, and pinned the neutral FF at a range of 4 - 4.5.
Sure enough, we are now at 4.25, and both of the last two Fed statements had a distinctly reluctant tone about lowering anymore. I, for one, am not surprised. They're not going to drop below 4 unless there's a sharp slowdown in growth from here.
Around here, you'd think they'd gone to 1, given all the hysteria you see.
If doing my own analysis makes me elitist, color me elitist. If being incredulous when someone disputes a basic idea like some base rate of money supply growth being needed to allow the economy to grow makes me elitist, color me elitist. (I mean sheesh, even under gold there would be money supply growth, equaling the amount of new gold pulled out of the ground each year.)
Yes, I'm not zany. If that makes me an elitist, so be it.