Clowns ES Daytrading Journal

Quote from ESclown:

Ideally a perfect short would have been at the 76 region today. I think bulls still may be strong.

A break below 64 today would be a big tip in strength back to the old bears who have probably been licking their wounds as of late.

I wonder how many Bears have stops above that 1400 level??

I want to see a move 57-59 region next few days.

Anyone who uses market profile could show that a down move to 57 was inevitable especially with weakness creeping in on the 60min chart.

I was hoping for the trend day yesterday in my day account - we basically consolidated slightly but that is the beauty of have a separate longer time frame account. It allows much more time for things to come to fruition.

I would advice anyone to have multiple strategies on the same market - imo if you have a strong bias on a particular day then pursuing it from the day trade standpoint can be costly and mentally fatiguing. Alternative will be to position short in a longer time frame account and let it run. This allows you to simply focus in the minor moves in day account.
 
I want to share with you the 15min chart.

It has blasted through one support area but bouncing of the next level at 50.

I hope everyone viewing this could see the beautiful short at 62 represented by the down arrow.

See how it break down and then tests as it often does the previous support (now resistance) - this is the ideal place where shorts can jump on with such low risk.

I mean for a short there i am sure you can nail that with a 3 point stop.
 

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I would love for this to bounce from this level back to 62 level. Want to see a move to1345 today before the day is up.

Again we have somewhat of a balance day yesterday - just think how some of those long went home yesterday.

Price closed near the low of the day - most longs will probably be nervous going into today. Then the overnight gap down puts them in the hole big time. If they are late longs to the party then the are most likely already under by 15 points.

I am sure if it remains this way a lot of those longs will be forced to puke their position when we open. This is what fuels the big trend days.

Again it can often turn on a dime but my belief is unless price is telling you otherwise in a big way then do not fade a break from balance.

Bulls need something right now but hopefully we break down today and that might lead to some very nice volatility in next few days.
 
Quote from volente_00:

From Successful Anonymous Trader:

"You simply cannot have any confidence if you do not have a method or way of identifying trades along with money management guidelines. You're lost in the woods, so to speak. I was there for many years. What did I do? This may help a lot of you:

I threw out 99% of all the crap I learned about oscillators, divergences, Elliott Wave, cycles, timing, seasonals, Gann, pitchforks, volume, Fractals, RSI, stochastics, overbought/oversold (this is a good one--the stock indexes, currencies and cotton for example everyone said were overbought and topping in February and March this year). Look at what they did. Needless to say, I don't pay any attention to this anymore either, etc., etc. The list goes on to infinity almost. I went back to the basics. I went back to simple chart patterns, (a simple moving average and trendline now and then for a visual aid.)

I came up with a low risk money management plan and put it together with trading with the trend and, presto, an effective and time tested trading plan. The plan is simple and has worked since trading began and will last me a lifetime. What a relief not to have to spend countless hours every night trying to find a new way to trade. I am sick and tired of that after 7-years.

I believe at becoming an expert at one stock or market and its behavior and then putting all your skills and energy to work in a concen(traded) manner. Get good at that market and trade the heck out of it. Increase your size over time and you'll make more money with less effort. There are lots of professionals that do this. Look at some floor traders or locals that stay in the pit for many years trading one market exclusively.

One thing that I have learned this year, is that I am trying to cut back on the number of trades I take and be more selective and not trade in congestion as much as I did before. I miss some good trades out of congestion, but I save myself a lot of mental energy, buy myself some more free time during the day, and get better and more profitable trades.

My attitude is changing now to one or two good trades, and that is all I need to make my week ( a triple or a home run, so to speak). There are plenty of them during any given week.

Trading is fun. Once you have a method and money management in place, it allows you to concentrate on trading and not on searching and researching. That gets old and frustrating. Make it your goal to find a simple method for next year. One thing that you can hang your hat on will last you a lifetime. Trading is simple. Remember that it's the Execution or Implementation of your trading plan that is the bigger challenge.

Most people make finding the method a big challenge. That is because there is so much junk thrown at traders. They feel like a child in a candy store and have to try every doodad in the place. When they are done, they are sick and never want to see another candy store (trading gizmo) again. They could have had the plain piece of milk chocolate at the front of the store (simple method price patterns) which would have done everything they desired and fulfilled all their needs.

I wish to all a great new year. I hope some will be able to end their journey in search of the holy grail or indicator that will turn their life around. Search for simplicity. You will be surprised what has been right under your nose all the time, right there in front of you on the chart or price bars. Pay attention to what they say...they will tell you everything. You need to listen and get to know them. It can be that simple. "

You know what Volente - could not agree more with this post. I realised quite a while ago that indicators for me just did not cut it. I think traders come into this game befuddled into thinking that trading is so hard and mathematically complex - this may be true for the quants or arb groups of many institutional traders but we are simply speculators. Just because trading is shown to be so difficult and complex individuals cannot accept that a simple method can outperform their well thought out gizmos and indicators.

I now rely on on such simplicity for my trading that i feel i could teach a 10 year old how to do it. Does this diminish my own intelligence (as i feel like i am sure many traders do that i am highly intelligent - i mean damn i have the degree's and grades to prove it right) - yet i am relying on methods to trade the most complex of instruments that most 10 year old could use.

When i started trading i thought my intelligence could help me produce the holy grail - i tried many different complex methods even thinking of implementing neural networks at one point - i think the reason fot this was that i needed this to be difficult and mentally very complex.

I soon realised as you did that money can be made of simple methods with money management being the most important tool.


Good trading to you Volente - i hope you can share more insights with us.
 
Quote from ESclown:

I want to share with you the 15min chart.

It has blasted through one support area but bouncing of the next level at 50.

I hope everyone viewing this could see the beautiful short at 62 represented by the down arrow.

See how it break down and then tests as it often does the previous support (now resistance) - this is the ideal place where shorts can jump on with such low risk.

I mean for a short there i am sure you can nail that with a 3 point stop.

Again same principle could be used for a short of 56. These strong trend days often provide the best risk to reward trades.

This is looking very weak right now i really want to see a big bounce which i can short into during RTH. No swing longs until we break out of this downtrend on longer term charts.

Lets hope for a volatile day :D
 
Trying something silly here. Shorting straight from open at 54.50.

Very very high chance of stop-out. Hoping for an open-drive down which will net me about 5-6 points.
 
Quote from ESclown:

Trying something silly here. Shorting straight from open at 54.50.

Very very high chance of stop-out. Hoping for an open-drive down which will net me about 5-6 points.

Want longs to be forced to puke some positions here before we go any higher.
 
Quote from ESclown:

I would love for this to bounce from this level back to 62 level. Want to see a move to1345 today before the day is up.

Again we have somewhat of a balance day yesterday - just think how some of those long went home yesterday.

Price closed near the low of the day - most longs will probably be nervous going into today. Then the overnight gap down puts them in the hole big time. If they are late longs to the party then the are most likely already under by 15 points.

I am sure if it remains this way a lot of those longs will be forced to puke their position when we open. This is what fuels the big trend days.

Again it can often turn on a dime but my belief is unless price is telling you otherwise in a big way then do not fade a break from balance.

Bulls need something right now but hopefully we break down today and that might lead to some very nice volatility in next few days.

Always think what the other players are going to do and how you would feel in certain positions. The rest is simple human emotions of fear and greed.
 
Quote from ESclown:

Trying something silly here. Shorting straight from open at 54.50.

Very very high chance of stop-out. Hoping for an open-drive down which will net me about 5-6 points.

Got my open drive so will be holding for more here. Beautiful start to the day with limited risk.

Want 44 as a target.
 
Quote from ESclown:

Got my open drive so will be holding for more here. Beautiful start to the day with limited risk.

Want 44 as a target.

Out 46.50

+8 points in 5 minutes not a bad start.
 
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