Clowns ES Daytrading Journal

[ESclown]

Quote from smalltrader35:

The ES usually trades in channels using Waves. These are broken down into long term and small term channels depending on each traders view. What I see here is that the 66 is close to the bottom on a channel, its extremely close to a Fibo Extension Level and has support in that area on a market profile chart. Traders use Fibo's for both entry and exit targets and profile charts for support and resistance areas. The 66 area is just one tick of the first Fibo Extension level plus is close to the support line at the bottom of the channel plus the recent move down (Wave) is very similar in size to the previous 2 moves down which I have drawn a WHITE LINE for each. I would be looking at the first fibo extension level as an exit for a short and a quick scalp entry for a long as stops could be set here hence the short term pull back in price then I would be looking for a bounce of the bottom of the price channel for a long entry. I would not put on a short entry around the 66 level I would take a wait and see approach. Play it safe. Can you post a chart later of your entry. Goodman. Thx

That's some good analysis their SmallTrader. Would love to see your chart later today to get a visual on that.

Your right that 66 merited a bounce and was not a good short.

Also, good defence is probably the best way to play in this game. My short had too wide a stop which was not safe at all - i was destined to be blasted and 3 points it relatively big one for me.

 

[ESclown]

Quote from AAAintheBeltway:

You guys overcomplicate things. There was a buy program that hit at 13:09.

I would be interested to know how you figure out if a move is a simple demand for liquidity or a real move.

Also, when you say buy program how do you get your analysis on this. I have an auto system which i play of the Prem and tries to take a ride on buy or sell programs for very short periods of time.

Any advice would help in this case.

 

[ESclown]

Quote from smalltrader35:

Heres the chart. Let me know your views

That's some good stuff ST. I love the way you adopt channels, i must admit i did not pay much attention to that downward channel.

Maybe i am not concentrating enough and spending too much time typing

The only problem i find with channel bounces is that as it is downward sloping it mean it can bounce a little and then hit again and again while remaining intact. That's why going against the trend using channels can be so hard i guess.

Would like to see more charts from you ST - i think i can learn quite a lot from your channels and Fib analysis.

 

[ESclown]

Quote from ESclown:

I am thinking 70 will be a nice resistance level today.

I hope readers can see how zones are very important in trading.
if they can't take out that level simply ride this channel now - bulls may turn it around or we ride this one down till the EOD.

The great thing about breaks from balance on daily charts is that all the players who were long previously at 83-84 levels are now trapped. As price does not bounce back to their buy levels they will get more and more anxious and then they will start to liquidate causing the typical domino effect on everyone else.

 

[ESclown]

Quote from ESclown:

Your right and im taking a gutsy shot at another short at 70.25.

great R:R

Bulls may be recovering here but they have to break this level to go higher. I can enforece a very tight stop on this one that i why i took it. Has some nice confluence on that level for Fib followers.

Started to trail this now. I hope someone took this beauty with me.

1 point stop
Target is 60.

1:10 risk to reward.

 

[Specterx]

RSI was mentioned earlier, I don't use it for overbought/oversold readings but it's useful to get another view on trends. TL breaks/holds seem to be fairly reliable as confirmation of a new direction, and every once in awhile a divergence will predict a move.

On the 15 minute chart there's been an RSI divergence and upward trend going since 0600, we just had another bounce off the lower TL. I closed my 70 short at 66 as the picture doesn't look quite bearish. Could go higher, maybe retrace to 70 again.

...and now a break above the price micro-trendline.

 

[ESclown]

Quote from Specterx:

RSI was mentioned earlier, I don't use it for overbought/oversold readings but it's useful to get another view on trends. TL breaks/holds seem to be fairly reliable as confirmation of a new direction, and every once in awhile a divergence will predict a move.

On the 15 minute chart there's been an RSI divergence and upward trend going since 0600, we just had another bounce off the lower TL. I closed my 70 short at 66 as the picture doesn't look quite bearish. Could go higher, maybe retrace to 70 again.

...and now a break above the price micro-trendline.

I used RSI, Macd, Stoch when i first started trading, i found them to be useful sometimes and then i realised they were affecting my decisions.

Also, i noticed RSI gives a divergence nearly every time either price breaks the previous lows/highs. I figured it basically just indicates that price and markets move in waves so every time we have big price increase we get a divergence and then a small wave down and then up wave to resume the trend.

Markets never move straight up or down based on your time frame so i think RSI and other indicators take advantage of this providing the trader with a divergence.

This is just my opinion of them but i must say i have some big increases in my profits since i got rid of all indicators.

Im sure many great traders use indicators and get great use out of them. Im still a sucky trader but i can only share my experience with them for what its worth.


Good trading spec

 

[ESclown]

Quote from Specterx:

RSI was mentioned earlier, I don't use it for overbought/oversold readings but it's useful to get another view on trends. TL breaks/holds seem to be fairly reliable as confirmation of a new direction, and every once in awhile a divergence will predict a move.

On the 15 minute chart there's been an RSI divergence and upward trend going since 0600, we just had another bounce off the lower TL. I closed my 70 short at 66 as the picture doesn't look quite bearish. Could go higher, maybe retrace to 70 again.

...and now a break above the price micro-trendline.

Also, i think down trend line is still very much intact and bulls could get smashed here.

Just probabilities though (sometimes your right and sometimes your wrong) - managing risk to reward and money management is all i can do here.

 

[DblArrow]

Quote from ESclown:

i found them to be useful sometimes and then i realised they were affecting my decisions.

LOL


Sounds like a Bill Engval "Here's your sign" moment.

I thought that is what they are supposed to do?

Just found that funny - I don't use them either for the same reasons you give - they affected my decisions.

 

[ESclown]

Quote from DblArrow:

LOL


Sounds like a Bill Engval "Here's your sign" moment.

I thought that is what they are supposed to do?

Just found that funny - I don't use them either for the same reasons you give - they affected my decisions.

I meant to say that i had an a reason to take a short and then would not take it because of conflicting information with the indicator (which was often wrong).

I'm staying clear of indicators and holy grails for now. Probably revert back to them when i realise my own judgement sucks