Clowns ES Daytrading Journal

[Specterx]

Quote from ESclown:
Hope any of this helps, will post more tomorrow if you have any new questions. Will answer and post the PMs on all other charts tomorrow.

Thanks for the reply, very informative! I don't see any one obvious thing I could have done differently here, other than to be more cautious and observant in general, but I've added a 60-minute chart to my watchlist as it's apparent I was missing lots of crucial longer-term information.

Looks like tomorrow's action could be pretty interesting...

 

[ESclown]

Quote from Specterx:

Nice trade... I'm interested to know more about your thought process here as I was actually short around this time. I was seeing the failure to break 65, then LH, LL, then another LH, divergences on several of my slow indicators, and then the failure to break 59 from 14:14-14:22. I was looking for a break of the swing-low trendline (about 52). 14:24 was a signal to get out, but IIRC I got stopped out once the rally blasted off. I honestly never thought to go long before 14:24-25 and considered it a fairly safe short. In retrospect it was foolish and one of my biggest problems is still constantly expecting changes in the dominant trend, even though these happen pretty rarely.

Also, where did you place your stop for this trade? If I had gone long at 56 I suspect I would've been stopped at 54.5...

Also, i must add that longer term charts are often crucial to intra-day trading. I think AHG thread talks about having an anchor chart - well try not to go against what longer timeframe is telling you.

Also, if you was short then i would have had stop at 57 or worst case scenario at 59 - this is beyond the downward trendline.

I don't know about divergences anymore - i find them conflicting and no conclusive evidence that they provide good trading signals. However, that is just my view and my experience with them. There are probably infinite amount of ways to make money trading so each to their own.

 

[ESclown]

Quote from carcanaques:

Clown,

If you don't read tape what then do you base your "price action" entries on? I read you look at at flags which I understand, perhaps wrongly, are technical chart formations. Would very much appreciate a PM with a screenshot of the chart (for the intraday trades only) you use for entries.

Very enjoyable journal by the way. Thanks for your contribution to the community.

I usually go for the top down approach - identifying a longer term view and hoping for some confirmation on smaller time frame chart.

I do read tape but i am have been doing it for awhile now - i still feel just having a simple understanding of price will have the same effect.

I base entries on important price zones, price reaction to the zone, trendlines, pivot support and resistance levels (when i say pivots i mean an important support or resistance based on price).

The rest i i have identified various price action patterns which often shows the market tipping its hand in which direction it will follow. Then i try to follow the trend or dominant trend on longer term charts to improve my probabilities.

Also, i must add that i only need 40% winning entries to get adequate returns with my system. Hence, I'm sure flipping a coin could have same desirable effects with tight money management and good risk to reward ratio's

 

[ESclown]

I am still favouring the long side here.

A couple of zones will be 62-63 as potential long.

Major zone which is 56-57 - not only good confluence at this zone but is a major Point Of Control on market profile for last coupe of weeks.

If we go down from here then i expect price to drag to 57 zone.
Lets see how this day develops, all accounts are flat for now.

 

[ESclown]

Getting long here at 70.

Target is at 76 region. Still quite risky because 15 min minor trend is down.

 

[ESclown]

Quote from ESclown:

Getting long here at 70.

Target is at 76 region. Still quite risky because 15 min minor trend is down.

Filled gap now coming down.
Stopped at 68 for -2.

 

[ESclown]

Okay tryinh another low risk long at 68.25. Big target in mind

 

[ESclown]

Quote from ESclown:

Okay tryinh another low risk long at 68.25. Big target in mind

Bad start here, stopped at 66.75 for -1.5.

 

[ESclown]

Horrible action so far.

Trying another long here at 68.75 - entries right now are terrible, if this one is stopped will step back for a while and look for higher probability entries.

That 15min is still in a very minor downtrend. However, this last 15min bar is a monster so far, lets see if it can take out the high on previous bar - this could rally nicely from here.

 

[ESclown]

Quote from ESclown:

Horrible action so far.

Trying another long here at 68.75 - entries right now are terrible, if this one is stopped will step back for a while and look for higher probability entries.

That 15min is still in a very minor downtrend. However, this last 15min bar is a monster so far, lets see if it can take out the high on previous bar - this could rally nicely from here.

Actually looking at longer term charts - if this does not take out 71 and close above it, i will close out quickly. Could be a nice short setting up here.