Sorry for the delay Steve.Quote from stocon:
In,
I agree it was not tech. a slim jim but these type of long 5 min consolidations are so numerous that I would like to come up with some rules on how to play them. Could you tell me a little more on what you are looking at on macd and does the speed by which the bar runs up to the boundary effect your decision making process? When you talk of .45 for a stop, the would supercede the stop at the low of the candle if it were greater than .45? When you talked of building boundaries on the whipsaw trade you described, you talked of drawing a line at the low of the second reversal, is this within or below the congestion?
TIA Steve
My stuff is so simple it will probably disappoint you. The idea of the speed of the bar sounds pretty interesting. I have never used it per se, although if I am watching a bar and price rises very very quickly on relatively light volume, I figure it is going to come back and trade in that area again pretty soon.
The MACD is on all of my charts. I use it in a number of ways.... none of which work all the time. When the MACD is at a relatively extreme value, I look for price to reverse. Extreme being relative to that stock. If price moves sideways while the MACD is moving back towards zero, I start looking for a continuation of the trend. I also use MACD for divergences and it is a nice little volatility indicator. Many times the indicator will slowly decrease in amplitude as it oscillates above and below the zero line until it is almost a flat line. For someone like me who loves the consolidation-expansion cycle, this pattern tells me that the volatility has been rung out of the stock and thus something is about to happen.
Re: the stop. I want sound principles to guide the trade, ie., price taking out the low of the previous bar, or price breaking thru a pattern boundary. So if abiding by those sound principles is going to cause me to lose more than .45 on the trade, then I will either reject the trade, or decide if the risk presented is acceptable. That is for charts less than Daily. Daily charts get a larger amount of wiggle room, maybe up to .90. I hate to lose, and the cost of doing biz is so cheap anymore that I'd rather get out quickly and re-assess.
Drawing boundary lines following reversals is specific to the trade where I have entered using price crossing a moving average. As such, there will not be congestion/consolidation yet. What happens is the price crosses the average and closes and I get in. Then price reverses and closes below the average and I reverse. Then price reverses again {whipsaw} closng back above the average but not above the high of the bar I entered long the first time. So I get out and wait. I have drawn boundaries using the reversal points, and many times the price will now consolidte within those local boundaries for several periods and then break.
With consolidation patterns like the slim jim or the geometric patterns, the boundaries are drawn after the consolidation has been occurring. So to answer that question specifically, the boundaries are drawn outside the congestion.
Those slim jims, especially on the YM as I look back, have such narrow ranges that just drawing a boundary above and below the hgihs and lows respectively should be all you need. I don't much care for the MACD on 5 minute and shorter charts, so I wouldn't use it. But that's me. You have very tight range now with boundaries for reference.
Hag's would have you enter with 2 cars and look for a profit target of 2-3x your risk. No rocket science there. He is looking for a one way trade since his work has shown that the slim jim is highly predictive of a continuation move. Once you reach the first profit target you sell 1 car, move the stop up to breakeven, and continue to march with the remaining car... applying sound trading principles as you go.