CL volatility VS NQ
- Thread starter Jdesey
- Start date
OVX
At the moment, maybe. Depending on current fundamentals, the fact that it's August, the way the wind's blowing, what you had for breakfast, and what sort of shoes you're wearing.
I offer four quick thoughts, in case they help ...
(i) You need a lot of experience trading CL before you'll ever be anything approaching "comfortable" with how its volatility and trends affect your trading, and your experience will (like everyone's) effectively be filtered through a perceptual veil imposed by the type of trading you're doing;
(ii) That said, I think few regular traders of both instruments would argue with the overall perception that CL is more volatile than NQ;
(iii) Similarly, I think few would argue with the overall perception that NQ is a more convenient intraday trender than CL (and that perception can actually be verified objectively, for example by dividing the RTH into short/fast time-based candles and measuring the candle bodies as a proportion of the overall candle lengths - said by some to be a fairly reliable indication of an instrument's "degree of trendiness");
(iv) Be aware that volatility and liquidity aren't the same thing.
This week so far, the NQ has been compressed with a thin trade (at least during regular market hours, not overnight Globex). Last week it was like winning the lottery. All markets fluctuate and some times are better than others. I would stay away from the CL until you are consistently profitable with a tamer market.
There are plenty of ways to measure volatility. What is wrong with plain old historical volatility? What is your intended use of a measure of volatility? That will determine the best way to measure it.
well, maybe it is just me... not sure.... but from my actual trading results I can tell you that for NQ I am hitting my biggest wins,,, but the losses are more frequent. But, my average winner is more than my average loss... so okay
now for CL, opposite,,,smaller wins, but smaller losses as well....
hmm,,, what to do??
now for CL, opposite,,,smaller wins, but smaller losses as well....
hmm,,, what to do??
It's just the hopelessly small time-scale you're looking at, which (as others have rightly and understandably commented in other threads you've started on other subjects) represents far too small a sample-size to have any significance at all.
Stop trying to draw conclusions from grotesquely inadequate information, otherwise known as "first impressions" and "guesses". And read a statistics book. Even a statistics book specifically for traders would help. There are several perfectly good ones to choose from.
Hmmm, you state you know for fact you're more profitable trading Emini NQ futures in comparison to Light Crude WTI CL futures and you're now wondering what to do ???
This reminds of that trade journal here at ET in which the guy was making 2 - 5k every morning while trading the Emini futures to only then give it all back via losses in the afternoon trading session to the closing bell.
He too was wondering what he should do.
Hint: The goal is to make money and if you have statistical data that tells you what you should be doing...than do it.
You should trade Emini NQ futures and don't even open up a chart of Crude CL futures. Just like that trader in the mentioned journal...this isn't rocket science. He should have only traded in the morning and then in the afternoon (after lunch)...turn off the computer and go see a movie, read a book, play with his kids, watch porn, yard maintenance, go workout, fly a kite or chase the spouse around in his undies...anything but stay away from the afternoon trading session.
This ain't rocket science when you have statistical data to support what's happening in your trading.
P.S. You're lucky to know what works for you...most don't. I've seen a lot of people blow up while trading something they shouldn't be trading when they could have been making money trading something else.
Must say I totally agree with this. All my impressions of your trading, formed just from the questions you're asking, are shouting at me that you should stay far, far away from CL.