CL Redux

Quote from pinkman:

I always welcome any input Swan.

I guess the issue is with my definition of 'edge'.
I think of an 'edge' as something MUCH more powerful than, as Nodoji mention, buying the pullbacks at the 21ema or anything like that.

I'd go as far as to say that Pretty much nobody on this site has an 'edge' (by my definition), since I think of an edge as a clear advantage over others.

Think; Seeing customer order flow (e.g. working at a big bank)
Market making a product with a wide bid/ask spread .
Having a deep understanding of a market with good connections to gain specialized information (e.g. distressed debt trading at DE Shaw) etc


How can we had an advantage over others if all of us here are looking at the same things.

That Sellindevol666 guy clearly seems to have an 'edge' but I get the distinct feeling that he's not really using price actions/charts/TA etc to make his trading decisions.

So even though I mentioned my 'lack of edge', I consider myself to have as much of an 'edge' as you or anybody else in this thread. I think you can make money without the sort of edge that I think I am referring too in my own mind when I use that word, but it's a hell of a lot harder!
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I actually think the two "edges" are much closer than you might realize. Let's take a hypothetical (which is probably not that hypothetical), and say that you get the EIA oil inventory numbers 10 minutes before everyone else. By your definition, that would be an edge, right? A huge (illegal) edge.

But I gave that information to 50 different traders, there would probably be 50 different variations of trades, and I am sure that a significant sample would still lose money. They would hold on too long, they would be stopped out, the market would act unpredictably, etc.

You can actually sim test with some historical data, and when I did it, I was able to make some money, but I had losers and frankly, my equity curve was not amazing. But I had a small sample size, just 15 weeks (which meant 15 trades). Fills were a big uncertainty, and meant sizing up was a real wild card.

What's the difference between the losers and the winners? I call it trading skill. The ability to cash in winners, to cut losers short but not too short, to make high probability trades, and to control the emotions of fear and greed and to stay objective. No one knows the future; probabilities are not guarantees; even an edge does not eliminate the need for these skills. Just my .02.
 
Quote from pinkman:

out here at 96.68 for +20
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Quote from pinkman:

stopped -12
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Quote from pinkman:

out here at 96.70 for +25
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Broke the pattern. Today should have been a fairly bad one!

There was actually one more trade that I didn't bother posting.
Long at 96.13. About the low of the day! Closed it for............................................................................................................................................6 ticks. (and then watched it rally 90! :) )

Possibly done for the day here.
 
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