CL Redux

Quote from MarketAddict:

Thanks for the response.. So do you trade 123's with trend also? If not, when do you use them..

I use 123's on the 1-min chart for with trend and counter trend trades. One thing that's an absolute no-no in my trading plan is trading against a strong trend without at least 3 reasons to do so. I do my best to continue to trade in the direction of a strong trend until the trend signals a possible reversal or I take a loss.
 
Quote from austinp:

Definitely... that's about the only way CL can be traded at all now. Prestage breakout orders from congestion into algo-spike explosions, and hope it follows thru instead of chops your stops.

That's for sure. You're better off fading the break of an interim swing high or low around a flattish 20EMA than anything else. There's more opportunity to scalp this way or to fade range extremes than anything else in CL now. I almost never do that because it's not part of my trading plan, but I see it work again and again.
 
Quote from NoDoji:

I use 123's on the 1-min chart for with trend and counter trend trades. One thing that's an absolute no-no in my trading plan is trading against a strong trend without at least 3 reasons to do so. I do my best to continue to trade in the direction of a strong trend until the trend signals a possible reversal or I take a loss.


How come you trade the 1 min chart (just curious)? You must get a bunch of trades during the day. How many trades do you take a day?
 
Quote from pinkman:

You'll notice I said he 'claims' ;)
Obviously it's all bull$hit.

You trade the ES instead Austin?

CL had been my preferred market until recently, but current price action does not permit scaling into multiple contracts positions. Nor can I really feel comfortable about placing numerous contracts outside of congestion breaks and/or pullbacks the way price just violently explodes.

I can see trading maybe 1 or 2 contracts trying to game the price bursts, but as for me I need to trade something where I can methodically enter & exit with scaled size. That has not been CL for quite some time on a consistent basis, and definitely not the past few months.

Would love to see it return to historical price behavior of the decade-plus past, but it's a long ways from there right now. To my understanding, most if not all of the former futures prop shops in Chicago and elsewhere are downsized or gone mostly from the contraction in CL.

The government wanted less volatility in the crude oil - gasoline prices for sake of consumer confidence, so they made that happen. Back in 1990s and 2000s, any discussion of government meddling with markets got scoffed at by the masses. Ten years later, the same government openly discusses financial markets manipulation.
 
Quote from pinkman:

I do. Although, i've had very mixed results in general with it.
I would have taken both of the circled trades for a short on Friday in fact. Both would have lost, so good job I didn't.

Anything clearly wrong with them entries in your opinion??

Only reason I didn't take them was that I didn't want to give any profits back after that +80 tick trade i'd closed shortly before.

Fair enough If you don't wish to post calls. Nobody is obliged.
But Hopefully i'll be able to watch a consistently profitable trader in action one day. There's a trader in bigmiketrading forum in the 'trading CL without indicators' thread who claims to make about 150 ticks per day!! He has a huge following over there. I'd love to see him in action in realtime.


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edit: or were you referring to new daily lows/high.
If so, I sometimes do that too. Again, though, often it'll go 3 or 4 ticks in my favour and then stop me out


chart says stop running to me.
 
Quote from MarketAddict:

How come you trade the 1 min chart (just curious)? You must get a bunch of trades during the day. How many trades do you take a day?

The 1-min chart only comes into play when there's a setup or signal on the 5-min chart.* The 5-min chart is my main chart. (In a strong trend or a strong trending move, the 1-min chart is what I use to scalp chunks of each push because I don't scale in or out. A scaling trend-follower would hold through the 1-min pullbacks and add to the winner where I'm preparing re-enter the trend for the next push to test, and hopefully break, the last new high/low.)

*The way it works for me is this: Price action on the 5-min chart signals a potential trade. If there are no contextual filters in the way, then it's a valid trade signal. I then use the 1-min chart to enter the trade. The specific way I use it is nothing more than a personal preference based on the R:R requirements of my trading plan.
 
Quote from NoDoji:

The 1-min chart only comes into play when there's a setup or signal on the 5-min chart.* The 5-min chart is my main chart. (In a strong trend or a strong trending move, the 1-min chart is what I use to scalp chunks of each push because I don't scale in or out. A scaling trend-follower would hold through the 1-min pullbacks and add to the winner where I'm preparing re-enter the trend for the next push to test, and hopefully break, the last new high/low.)

*The way it works for me is this: Price action on the 5-min chart signals a potential trade. If there are no contextual filters in the way, then it's a valid trade signal. I then use the 1-min chart to enter the trade. The specific way I use it is nothing more than a personal preference based on the R:R requirements of my trading plan.

Cool.. Do you usually look at any other time frames higher than the 5 min for confirmation? Also, on friday how did you trade the market.. It consolidated then spike down and then came back up and made a wide range..
 
Susan Collins' Debt Ceiling Plan Not Dead Yet

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/10/13/susan-collins-debt-ceiling_n_4094336.html

1/ A Democratic aide confirmed the talks were ongoing and attracting fresh interest, but was unwilling to go on the record, citing the leadership's opposition.

Corker, who like Landrieu said he supports the talks between Reid and McConnell, said he believes the bipartisan effort was blocked by Democratic leaders because many in their party want to undo the spending cuts that remain in the Collins compromise, which would fund discretionary programs at $988 billion in a continuation of this year's sequestered budget.


2/ If Democrats were to accept the plan, the compromise would give Republicans two small victories of sorts
-- ensuring that deeper budget cuts than Democrats want stay in place for at least three and a half more months,
-- and temporarily replacing the medical device tax in Obamacare.

Democratic leaders are loath to go along because it would likely mean rewarding GOP hostage-taking, and because the public has been overwhelmingly on their side in the battle.
 
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