CL Redux

Quote from NoDoji:



Does no one else do this? Am I the only one who sells when new lows are made and buys when new highs are made?
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I do. Although, i've had very mixed results in general with it.
I would have taken both of the circled trades for a short on Friday in fact. Both would have lost, so good job I didn't.

Anything clearly wrong with them entries in your opinion??

Only reason I didn't take them was that I didn't want to give any profits back after that +80 tick trade i'd closed shortly before.

Fair enough If you don't wish to post calls. Nobody is obliged.
But Hopefully i'll be able to watch a consistently profitable trader in action one day. There's a trader in bigmiketrading forum in the 'trading CL without indicators' thread who claims to make about 150 ticks per day!! He has a huge following over there. I'd love to see him in action in realtime.


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edit: or were you referring to new daily lows/high.
If so, I sometimes do that too. Again, though, often it'll go 3 or 4 ticks in my favour and then stop me out
 

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Quote from pinkman:

I do. Although, i've had very mixed results in general with it.
I would have taken both of the circled trades for a short on Friday in fact. Both would have lost, so good job I didn't.

Anything clearly wrong with them entries in your opinion??

Only reason I didn't take them was that I didn't want to give any profits back after that +80 tick trade i'd closed shortly before.

Fair enough If you don't wish to post calls. Nobody is obliged.
But Hopefully i'll be able to watch a consistently profitable trader in action one day. There's a trader in bigmiketrading forum in the 'trading CL without indicators' thread who claims to make about 150 ticks per day!! He has a huge following over there. I'd love to see him in action in realtime.


attachment.php


edit: or were you referring to new daily lows/high.
If so, I sometimes do that too. Again, though, often it'll go 3 or 4 ticks in my favour and then stop me out
More...

The areas where you circled for going short make no sense to me.

There's no trend where you have your first circle. The strong trending move earlier never attracted enough additional sellers to break the low. There were then higher lows and a breakout to retest the earlier high. When the high fails to break, price comes back to the 20EMA and closes below it, which flattens the EMA. This flat EMA offers a quick visual signal that we're going to range or chop. So the area of your first circle could be a solid short setup for a retest of the low, but since there's no trend I'd never enter a short position via a break of an interim low. Instead, once the 5-min 20EMA breaks, I'd watch for a pullback on the 1-min chart and look to get short off that. So I'd be shorting off the 16:15 1-min bar and that would be a scratch trade. If I shorted off the 16:25-16:27 bars, that, too, would be a scratch, due to no follow through.

The area of your second circle also makes no sense to short. Same reason, no strong trend, price is still on its way to test the early low, but hasn't broken it. There is however, short potential again once price closes below the 20EMA just before 18:00. So I cross-reference the 1-min chart and might short off the 18:03 bar, the 18:10 bar, 18:14 bar, or the 18:33 bar.

Breakouts of swing lows and highs work best in a well defined trend where the breakout is of the last new low or high of the session that recently printed. But if the breakout is of an interim swing low or high, or if it's a test of a high or low in a wide range, it's likely to fail, so it's best to position yourself leading into the test of that level and if it fails, you can scratch the trade.

Make sense?
 
This Ninja chart is clean visually, good on eyes and mind, i plan to check BigMiketrading forum some time

Quote from pinkman:

Fair enough If you don't wish to post calls. Nobody is obliged.
But Hopefully i'll be able to watch a consistently profitable trader in action one day. There's a trader in bigmiketrading forum in the 'trading CL without indicators' thread who claims to make about 150 ticks per day!! He has a huge following over there. I'd love to see him in action in realtime.


attachment.php
More...
 
Quote from NoDoji:

I use the 1-min chart to buy/sell pullbacks as soon as a new high/low prints. Study various ways to do this that fit your risk:reward parameters. You can simply buy or sell a break of the last high or low, or you can buy or sell once price pulls back to the 1-min 20EMA without breaking a 5-min price bar by more than a tick or two. Or you can buy or sell little 1-min consolidations when price is so strong or weak it doesn't stage a real multi-bar pullback.

Look at Wednesday's action for an example of a strong trend.

There's narrow range consolidation in pre-market and just before the open the market tips its hand by way of a symmetrical triangle downside break. Watch the 1-min chart to see how price reacts to a pullback to the underside of the LTL. The 9:00am ET 1-min bar pulls back to that LTL and closes just below it. Time to trail a sell stop below the low of that bar.

This trend is so strong price doesn't even stage multi-bar 1-min pullbacks. All you get is a couple tiny inside bars at 9:06 and 9:07, and a narrow range bear flag between 9:11 and 9:16. This is where traders find it so difficult to enter, but all you have to do when that happens is place your sell stop below the last low! (Or last high in an uptrend.)

At some point the trend reverses and you'll usually have a second attempt failure to continue and a chance to exit break even or for a small loss. I consider that final trade of the trend my tip to generous market for offering such easy money on the way down (or up).

Does no one else do this? Am I the only one who sells when new lows are made and buys when new highs are made?
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Thanks for the response.. So do you trade 123's with trend also? If not, when do you use them..
 
3 stage of this Shudown/Debt Limit Progress
---------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/10/12/debt-ceiling-senate_n_4089740.html
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303382004579131272746516790

1/ Many lawmakers, including House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.), said it was now up to their colleagues in the Senate to hold firm so that Republicans in both chambers would appear united.

"I'm disappointed that the president has rejected the offer that we put on the table," Cantor told reporters after the meeting. "I know that he's trying to see which Republican senator he can pick off in the Senate. I hope that the Senate Republicans stand strong so we can speak with one voice."

House Republicans had put forward a proposal to extend the debt limit for six weeks and work quickly to reopen the government,

2/ After a plan from House Republicans was rejected by Obama Friday, Collins tried to advance a compromise that would have
a/ lifted the debt limit through January,
b/ and extended spending until March.
c/ It would have given Republicans a two-year delay of a medical device tax, and kept spending at levels they accept.

Democratic leaders shot that down, even though it had the support of at least five Democrats, including Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). They argued there was no reason to accept the compromise.

Reid spokesman Adam Jentleson told reporters that Democrats had two main problems with Collins' proposal: <b>They wanted a longer debt limit hike, and didn't believe there should be concessions for the basic tasks of reopening the government and paying the country's bills.</b>

He added that the <b>flexibility approach to sequestration was floated before, and remained unpopular among Democrats who would rather replace the cuts.</b>

3/ "The real conversation that matters now is the one that's taking place between McConnell and Reid," said Sen. Bob Corker (R., Tenn.).

The two Senate leaders met around 9 a.m. on Saturday for about 45 minutes, along with Sens. Charles Schumer (D., N.Y.) and Lamar Alexander (R., Tenn.). Mr. Reid said Mr. Alexander called him on Friday night to initiate the talks at Mr. McConnell's request.

"This should be seen as something very positive, even though we don't have anything done yet and a long ways to go before anything like that will happen," Mr. Reid said Saturday afternoon.
 
Quote from pinkman:

There's a trader in bigmiketrading forum in the 'trading CL without indicators' thread who claims to make about 150 ticks per day!! He has a huge following over there. I'd love to see him in action in realtime.
More...

21 trading sessions per month x 150 ticks/cents CL @$10 per tick = 3,000+ cents or +$30,000 per each single CL contract monthly profit.

So this guy is hands down the greatest CL trader to ever open a brokerage account, and he just so happens to spend his idle time posting on an anonymous public message board for what reason? Other than mass public attention?

Please tell me common sense and logic prevails with everyone here.
 
Quote from NoDoji:

This trend is so strong price doesn't even stage multi-bar 1-min pullbacks. All you get is a couple tiny inside bars at 9:06 and 9:07, and a narrow range bear flag between 9:11 and 9:16. This is where traders find it so difficult to enter, but all you have to do when that happens is place your sell stop below the last low! (Or last high in an uptrend.)

Does no one else do this? Am I the only one who sells when new lows are made and buys when new highs are made?
More...

Definitely... that's about the only way CL can be traded at all now. Prestage breakout orders from congestion into algo-spike explosions, and hope it follows thru instead of chops your stops.

There is no deliberate price movement in CL now during directional moves. Everything is outright algo explosive violence. CL does not even remotely resemble the market it was from inception of electronic trading until about this time last year. Completely different game no, no relation at all to historical norm from the past.

Pick your key breakout zones on a chart, prestage breakout orders up or down and try to catch the one - two algo explosions on average per session. Welcome to CL trading, circa 2013 and beyond :)
 
Quote from austinp:



Please tell me common sense and logic prevails with everyone here.
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You'll notice I said he 'claims' ;)
Obviously it's all bull$hit.

You trade the ES instead Austin?
 
Quote from austinp:

21 trading sessions per month x 150 ticks/cents CL @$10 per tick = 3,000+ cents or +$30,000 per each single CL contract monthly profit.

So this guy is hands down the greatest CL trader to ever open a brokerage account, and he just so happens to spend his idle time posting on an anonymous public message board for what reason? Other than mass public attention?

Please tell me common sense and logic prevails with everyone here.
More...

LMAO, I was thinking the same thing. The guy's doing this in 2013??? I mean back in 2010 it was possible; there were often days with multiple individual price swings of 100 ticks or more. Now it's consol/chop...blast, consol/chop...blast! :eek:

Edit: OK, more like consol/chop...blast...fail! :p
 
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