CL Redux
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France says Syria strike possible by Wednesday
http://news.yahoo.com/france-says-syria-strike-possible-wednesday-092126948.html
French President Francois Hollande said a military strike on Syria could come by Wednesday and that Britain's surprise rejection of armed intervention would not affect his government's stand.
"France wants firm and proportionate action against the Damascus regime," he said in an interview to Le Monde daily on Friday. <b>The French parliament is due to meet on Wednesday for an emergency Syria session.
Hollande however ruled out strikes while the UN inspectors were in Syria investigating the alleged attack. UN chief Ban Ki-moon has said they were expected to leave Syria by Saturday morning.</b>
http://news.yahoo.com/france-says-syria-strike-possible-wednesday-092126948.html
French President Francois Hollande said a military strike on Syria could come by Wednesday and that Britain's surprise rejection of armed intervention would not affect his government's stand.
"France wants firm and proportionate action against the Damascus regime," he said in an interview to Le Monde daily on Friday. <b>The French parliament is due to meet on Wednesday for an emergency Syria session.
Hollande however ruled out strikes while the UN inspectors were in Syria investigating the alleged attack. UN chief Ban Ki-moon has said they were expected to leave Syria by Saturday morning.</b>
Look for cnn political analysis article states Obama has no option to back out , so strike is imminent .
This should keep OIL at 109.25 + by close
This should keep OIL at 109.25 + by close
CNN political analysis!
I see it highly unlikely that the US will take ANY military action now. It's obvious that Obama had cold feet after learning that the UK, the USA's most closest ally, is not going to join in any coalition. So Obama had to find a face saving way of exiting too. Aha, let's recall Congress and ask them whether to do it or not, knowing full well they are not in favour.
I see CL plummeting $1-$2 on Sunday night.
Obama Game Plan:
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Obama has, however, no doubt tried to game out how this vote might play out.
http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/02/world/meast/syria-civil-war/index.html?hpt=hp_inthenews
1/ He probably calculates that for Republican skeptics in Congress, they will have to explain to the American public why it is that they will not sanction military action on Syria after its large-scale use of chemical weapons while they continue to describe Syria's closest ally, Iran, and its nuclear weapons program -- which still has yet to produce any nuclear weapons-- as a grave threat to the world.
2/ We can be sure that in the next days, the administration will make the argument that if you let Syria take a pass on its large-scale and repeated use of chemical weapons, you can forget any chance of slowing or ending Iran's nuclear program, something that is a matter of great importance for much of the Republican Party.
3/ For those on the left of the Democratic Party in Congress who are generally skeptical of U.S. military actions, Obama can essentially ask, "If not now, when?" At what point will self-described liberals intervene to stop the use of weapons so vile that they have been banned by the civilized world for almost a century?
===============
Obama has, however, no doubt tried to game out how this vote might play out.
http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/02/world/meast/syria-civil-war/index.html?hpt=hp_inthenews
1/ He probably calculates that for Republican skeptics in Congress, they will have to explain to the American public why it is that they will not sanction military action on Syria after its large-scale use of chemical weapons while they continue to describe Syria's closest ally, Iran, and its nuclear weapons program -- which still has yet to produce any nuclear weapons-- as a grave threat to the world.
2/ We can be sure that in the next days, the administration will make the argument that if you let Syria take a pass on its large-scale and repeated use of chemical weapons, you can forget any chance of slowing or ending Iran's nuclear program, something that is a matter of great importance for much of the Republican Party.
3/ For those on the left of the Democratic Party in Congress who are generally skeptical of U.S. military actions, Obama can essentially ask, "If not now, when?" At what point will self-described liberals intervene to stop the use of weapons so vile that they have been banned by the civilized world for almost a century?
except of course the United States...between 1961-1971
"Agent Orange is the combination of the code names for Herbicide Orange (HO) and Agent LNX, one of the herbicides and defoliants used by the U.S. military as part of its chemical warfare program, Operation Ranch Hand, during the Vietnam War from 1961 to 1971. Vietnam estimates 400,000 people were killed or maimed, and 500,000 children born with birth defects as a result of its use.[1][2] The Red Cross of Vietnam estimates that up to 1 million people are disabled or have health problems due to Agent Orange.[3] The United States government has dismissed these figures as unreliable and unrealistically high."
Obama, aides confront sceptical Congress on Syria strike
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/09/02/markets-oil-idUKL4N0GY01820130902
* Unrest, sanctions remove 2.7 mln bpd oil output - Deutsche Bank
* China PMI hits 16-mo high; Euro zone grows fastest in 2 yrs
* Four cargoes of N.Sea benchmark Forties deferred into October (Recasts, updates prices paragraph 4, adds French report, Forties delays)
1/ "The Syrian crisis has not gone away," said David Hufton, managing director of London brokerage PVM Oil Associates.
"There is only so much uncertainty that markets can take before they go into full scale safe-haven lockdown. With the Middle East in such turmoil, we would argue that oil will be regarded as the commodity safe haven."
2/ FORTIES AND DATA
While hedge funds ramped up bets on the possibility of future supply disruptions in the Middle East, immediate outages lent further support to prices, analysts said.
Four cargoes of North Sea Forties crude oil - the largest of the four grades that make up the Brent benchmark - have been delayed into October from September due to lower-than-expected production, trade sources said on Monday.
3/ Tightening European markets helped push the October Brent premium to U.S. WTI crude up by more than $1 to $7.55 a barrel, its widest since June. CL-LCO1=R
4/ A report by Deutsche Bank on Monday estimated more than 2.7 million barrels per day of oil supply had been lost to the market through civil war, unrest, sanctions and disruption to production in half a dozen countries from Libya to Britain.
Data on Monday suggested economic growth was picking up.
5/ China's factory activity expanded at its fastest in more than a year in August with a jump in new orders, official data showed. A private survey showed China's factory activity expanded for the first time in four months in August as domestic demand rebounded.
6/ In the euro zone, strong orders for manufactured goods helped the bloc's factory activity rise at the fastest pace in over two years last month and led to backlogs of work for the first time since mid-2011, a survey showed
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/09/02/markets-oil-idUKL4N0GY01820130902
* Unrest, sanctions remove 2.7 mln bpd oil output - Deutsche Bank
* China PMI hits 16-mo high; Euro zone grows fastest in 2 yrs
* Four cargoes of N.Sea benchmark Forties deferred into October (Recasts, updates prices paragraph 4, adds French report, Forties delays)
1/ "The Syrian crisis has not gone away," said David Hufton, managing director of London brokerage PVM Oil Associates.
"There is only so much uncertainty that markets can take before they go into full scale safe-haven lockdown. With the Middle East in such turmoil, we would argue that oil will be regarded as the commodity safe haven."
2/ FORTIES AND DATA
While hedge funds ramped up bets on the possibility of future supply disruptions in the Middle East, immediate outages lent further support to prices, analysts said.
Four cargoes of North Sea Forties crude oil - the largest of the four grades that make up the Brent benchmark - have been delayed into October from September due to lower-than-expected production, trade sources said on Monday.
3/ Tightening European markets helped push the October Brent premium to U.S. WTI crude up by more than $1 to $7.55 a barrel, its widest since June. CL-LCO1=R
4/ A report by Deutsche Bank on Monday estimated more than 2.7 million barrels per day of oil supply had been lost to the market through civil war, unrest, sanctions and disruption to production in half a dozen countries from Libya to Britain.
Data on Monday suggested economic growth was picking up.
5/ China's factory activity expanded at its fastest in more than a year in August with a jump in new orders, official data showed. A private survey showed China's factory activity expanded for the first time in four months in August as domestic demand rebounded.
6/ In the euro zone, strong orders for manufactured goods helped the bloc's factory activity rise at the fastest pace in over two years last month and led to backlogs of work for the first time since mid-2011, a survey showed
Siria : news after McCain , Obama meeting
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http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/02/world/meast/syria-civil-war/index.html?hpt=hp_t1
0/ Obama met in the Oval Office with Sens. John McCain, and Sen. Lindsey Graham, both members of the Senate Armed Services Committee, the White House said. After the meeting, McCain and Graham said the United States needs to help the rebels reverse battlefield gains by troops loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
"We still have significant concerns, <b>but we believe there is in formulation a strategy to upgrade the capabilities of the Free Syrian Army and to degrade the capabilities of Bashar al-Assad," said McCain, the ranking Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee. </b>
1/ McCain, who has called for U.S. intervention in Syria since early 2012, criticized Obama for seeking a vote before striking -- but said it would be "catastrophic" for Congress to reject Obama's call to authorize military force.
"It would undermine the credibility of the United States of America and the president of the United States," McCain said. "None of us want that."
2/ McCain said he was more supportive of a limited U.S. strike after his meeting with Obama, partly because of the prospect of increased support for the rebels. Both he and Graham added, however, that they needed more detailed assurances that the U.S. strategy would be sufficiently strong and sustainable before they could endorse it to their colleagues.
3/ The main support for Syrian rebels has so far come from the Persian Gulf monarchies of Saudi Arabia and Qatar. U.S. aid has been limited largely to non-lethal assistance such as communications gear and medical equipment.
4/ But American officials have struggled with how to back opposition groups without providing weapons to those linked to Islamic militants, such as the al-Nusra Front -- a group considered the most effective anti-Assad force on the battlefield, but one the United States says has ties to al Qaeda.
5/ "It is my belief that the side we choose must be ready to promote their interests and ours when the balance shifts in their favor," Dempsey wrote in an August 19 letter to Rep. Eliot Engel, D-New York, the ranking Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee. "Today, they are not."
6/ The leader of another rebel faction, the Free Syrian Army, said Monday his organization supported Obama's decision to go to Congress for approval for military action.
"We understand, really, the decision-making mechanism in a democratic country and realize that support for the decision will make it stronger and more effective, said FSA chief of staff Gen. Salim Idris. "We hope it will encourage other friendly countries to participate in the international campaign against the regime."
Idris said the FSA -- a force founded by defectors from al-Assad's military -- doesn't share weapons or information with jihadist groups and said any weapons or ammunition it receives "will go to the right hands -- to the hands of my fighters who are moderate, who are fighting to build a free and democratic Syria for all."
--------------------------
http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/02/world/meast/syria-civil-war/index.html?hpt=hp_t1
0/ Obama met in the Oval Office with Sens. John McCain, and Sen. Lindsey Graham, both members of the Senate Armed Services Committee, the White House said. After the meeting, McCain and Graham said the United States needs to help the rebels reverse battlefield gains by troops loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
"We still have significant concerns, <b>but we believe there is in formulation a strategy to upgrade the capabilities of the Free Syrian Army and to degrade the capabilities of Bashar al-Assad," said McCain, the ranking Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee. </b>
1/ McCain, who has called for U.S. intervention in Syria since early 2012, criticized Obama for seeking a vote before striking -- but said it would be "catastrophic" for Congress to reject Obama's call to authorize military force.
"It would undermine the credibility of the United States of America and the president of the United States," McCain said. "None of us want that."
2/ McCain said he was more supportive of a limited U.S. strike after his meeting with Obama, partly because of the prospect of increased support for the rebels. Both he and Graham added, however, that they needed more detailed assurances that the U.S. strategy would be sufficiently strong and sustainable before they could endorse it to their colleagues.
3/ The main support for Syrian rebels has so far come from the Persian Gulf monarchies of Saudi Arabia and Qatar. U.S. aid has been limited largely to non-lethal assistance such as communications gear and medical equipment.
4/ But American officials have struggled with how to back opposition groups without providing weapons to those linked to Islamic militants, such as the al-Nusra Front -- a group considered the most effective anti-Assad force on the battlefield, but one the United States says has ties to al Qaeda.
5/ "It is my belief that the side we choose must be ready to promote their interests and ours when the balance shifts in their favor," Dempsey wrote in an August 19 letter to Rep. Eliot Engel, D-New York, the ranking Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee. "Today, they are not."
6/ The leader of another rebel faction, the Free Syrian Army, said Monday his organization supported Obama's decision to go to Congress for approval for military action.
"We understand, really, the decision-making mechanism in a democratic country and realize that support for the decision will make it stronger and more effective, said FSA chief of staff Gen. Salim Idris. "We hope it will encourage other friendly countries to participate in the international campaign against the regime."
Idris said the FSA -- a force founded by defectors from al-Assad's military -- doesn't share weapons or information with jihadist groups and said any weapons or ammunition it receives "will go to the right hands -- to the hands of my fighters who are moderate, who are fighting to build a free and democratic Syria for all."