CL Redux

<b>Factbox: Why small producer Syria matters to oil markets </b>

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/27/us-syria-oil-factbox-idUSBRE97Q0JW20130827

(Reuters) - Oil prices rose to a six-month high on Tuesday as Western powers readied a military strike against Syria, and traders and analysts cited concerns over stability in the Middle East.

Below are facts about Syria's energy sector and why developments there matter to global oil markets.

SYRIA'S OIL AND GAS SECTOR

* Syria has not exported any oil since late 2011, when international sanctions came into force.

* "Syria is not a major oil producer (as was Libya), nor is it a major transit point for oil and gas exports (as is Egypt)," said Julian Jessop, head of commodities research at Capital Economics.

"Instead the concern is the risk that Western intervention in Syria could prompt a wider regional conflict, given the support that Iran has provided to the regime of (President Bashar al-) Assad," he added.

* Prior to the sanctions Syria produced 370,000 barrels per day (bpd), roughly 0.4 percent of global supplies, and exported less than 150,000 bpd, mainly to Europe. The major oil companies working there before the sanctions were Royal Dutch Shell and Total.

* Syria's current production is estimated at just 50,000 bpd, all of which is refined domestically.

* It is short of oil products and is forced to import them from abroad. Sales of oil products to Syria are still allowed, although most traders have refrained from doing business there. It has been forced to resort to help from strategic ally Iran.

POTENTIAL IMPACT ON OTHER COUNTRIES

<b>* A move against Syria could have an impact on Western efforts to pressure Tehran over its nuclear program, after trade sanctions have cut Iran's oil exports by half over the past two years. It still supplies around 1 million bpd to Asian markets and Turkey.

"With a U.S. strike on Syria, making some rapid progress on the Iranian nuclear files will be more difficult, and (Iranian President Hassan) Rouhani will not have been given the opportunity to try a different route," said Olivier Jakob from oil consultancy Petromatrix. </b>

* The security situation in Iraq, currently OPEC's second largest producer, has significantly deteriorated because of Syria, said Helima Croft, an analyst at Barclays.

<b>"Syria has deepened Iraq's sectarian fault lines, with Prime Minister Maliki's mainly Shiite government widely seen as siding with the Assad regime and Iraq's Sunni opposition leaders with the Syrian rebels," she said. </b>

* A Syrian war also has the potential to further exacerbate tensions in large producing countries with significant Shiite populations such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, Croft said.

* Complicating the standoff is the involvement of other major players including support from major oil producer Russia for Assad's government.

"Syria has been at the front of a proxy war between regional powers, and siding with one party or the other in Syria is effectively getting drawn into this proxy war between Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait," Amrita Sen, from consultancy Energy Aspects, said.

<b>* Petromatrix's Jakob added that Syria could pose a risk to the shipment of crudes out of Iraq and Azerbaijan.

"The Bay of Iskenderun, in Turkey off a few miles from the border with Syria, is a major export route for crude oil out of Iraq and Azerbaijan," he said.

He estimated oil flows running through the bay at 1.2 million bpd or over 1 percent of global supply. <b>
 
France 'Ready To Punish' Syria Over Gas Attack
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/08/27/france-syria_n_3823398.html
"I have decided to increase our military support to the National Syrian Coalition," the main Syrian opposition group in exile, he also said.
But on Monday Hollande said time is running out for the Syrian regime and airstrikes are a possibility.

"Everything will come into play this week," he told Le Parisien newspaper.
"There are several options on the table, ranging from
a) strengthening international sanctions to
b) airstrikes to
c) arming the rebels.
 
<b>Hagel: 'We're ready to go' </b>

http://www.cnn.com/2013/08/27/politics/us-syria/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

Earlier, a senior administration official said Obama will be presented with final options regarding actions against Syria in the next few days.

Assuming the president decides to go ahead with a military response, any action could come as early as mid-week, though it could be later, the official cautioned.

Factors weighing into the timing of any action include a desire to get it done before the president leaves for Russia next week for a summit with G8 allies, and before the administration has to make a decision on whether to suspend aid to Egypt because of the ongoing political turmoil there, the official explained.

---
Obama "time and again has basically said that Iran will not be allowed to have nuclear weapons, that's the red line," King told CNN on Monday, adding that failure to enforce a similar threat against Syria on chemical weapons would undermine the president.

<b>"This is as much a warning to Iran as I see it, as it is action against Syria," King said.</b>
---
<b>White House rules out boots on ground, no-fly zone </b>
Also Monday, a White House official ruled out sending ground troops to Syria or implementing a no-fly zone to blunt al-Assad's aerial superiority over rebels fighting to oust his regime.
 
Quote from Visaria:

I was watching just now as it opened (6pm est), went berserk, was at 109.20, next few seconds shot up to 109.80 :eek:

stops were taken off

watch 110 now, it's gonna be fireworks another time
 
Quote from kashirin:

when you start to see apocalyptic forecasts then it's probably time to go the opposite direction

it will be a great time to short when the first rocket will be launched

Yes, thanks for your input...appreciated. Picked up some oct 150 calls :)
 
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