CL Redux

UPDATE 10-U.S. oil drops on pipeline outage, contract expiration

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/08/20/markets-oil-idUKL4N0GL0XA20130820

NEW YORK, Aug 20 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures fell sharply on Tuesday as traders sold to close out positions ahead of the front-month contract's expiration and in reaction to news the Seaway pipeline had shut down halting shipments from Oklahoma to the Gulf Coast.

Seaway carries crude oil from Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for the futures' benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, to refineries on the Gulf Coast.

The drop in U.S. crude oil swelled its discount to Brent to its largest since June.

2/ U.S. crude oil futures for September delivery, expired $2.14 per barrel lower, or down 2 percent, at $104.96, their largest one-day percentage loss in two months.

3/ October U.S. oil futures ended the session $1.75 per barrel lower at $105.11. The spread between October and November futures prices narrowed to its smallest point in two months at 51 cents.

4/ Brent's premium to WTI oil futures, or the Brent-WTI spread, CL-LCO1=R passed through its 50-day moving average for the first time in five months. It settled at $5.04 per barrel, the widest since the end of June, helped by Brent's higher close.

<B>5/ "We have a huge amount of net length and this is just rolling contracts and profit taking," said Rich Ilczyszyn, chief market strategist and founder of iitrader.com LLC in Chicago.

"We've got a lot of data coming out tomorrow. Whether or not it's a downward trend we'll have to wait until tomorrow to see."

6/ In the meantime, Brent crude oil futures rose on continued concerns about potential supply disruptions in the Middle East, reversing losses caused by worries about the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary easing policy.

"We were down early on tapering concerns, and what seemed to turn the momentum around were concerns about clashes in Libya," said Phil Flynn, an analyst with Price Futures Group in Chicago.

7/ Brent crude oil futures for October delivery settled 25 cents higher at $110.15 per barrel, after trading as low as $108.61 earlier in the session.
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8/ The Libyan government asked tankers to leave the port of Es Sider, the country's largest, after striking workers at several major oil terminals allegedly attempted to sell crude themselves, bypassing the official force majeure shutdown.

The head of Libya's Petroleum Facilities Guard said that striking workers at Zuetini, the country's third-largest oil port, had fired on civilians and injured at least one person. Independent confirmation of the shooting was not immediately available.

Worries that the situation in Libya would deteriorate further helped support Brent crude prices, reversing earlier losses. About half of Libya's more than 1.2-million-barrel-per-day export capacity remains shut down due to civil unrest, industry sources said.

Traders took profits in both Brent and U.S. oil earlier in the session fearing the U.S. government would lay out plans to pull back its monetary easing program, which could ultimately dampen demand for oil in the world's largest oil consumer.

9/ The Fed will release minutes of its latest policy meeting on Wednesday. The minutes are largely expected to give clues on when the central bank plans to taper its monthly $85 billion in asset purchases that have supported commodities in recent years.
 
Quote from cdcaveman:

no look at the expression... -dec + jun , was the purchase.. so i'm short dec13 , long jun14 .... the curve is backwards so its a negative number... i make money on it going positive, in this case more towards zero.. no stops on spreads.. lots of risk... the spread could go to -10 or more..

cheers
 
Quote from cdcaveman:

i went short via a z/m spread yesterday

+ BOT 1 CL - DEC13 + JUN14 Calendar Spread -7.10 USD NYMEX AUG 19 16:16:58

just closed it out

+ SLD 1 CL - DEC13 + JUN14 Calendar Spread -6.30 USD NYMEX 14:03:14

+.80 cents

looked like it was rolling over and weak..

What was the motivation behind this trade? Was it chart related? Or more fundamental e.g. perhaps more demand for nearer term oil than longer dated?
 
Libya OIL coming back online as stated below ..

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-halts-decline-as-market-awaits-fed-minutes-2013-08-20

On Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a fall of 1.4 million barrels in crude stockpiles for the week ended Aug. 16. That was slightly more than expected, as analysts polled by Platts were looking for a 1 million-barrel decline.

Gasoline supplies, meanwhile, dropped by 4 million barrels — much more than the forecast for a decline of 1.5 million barrels.

“The numbers from the EIA today were in line in regards to crude oil,” said Tariq Zahir, managing member at Tyche Capital Advisors. The “only surprise today was the slightly larger-than-expected draw in the gasoline market.”

<b>“With the U.S. dollar slightly stronger and the announcement of Libya’s [oil] production coming back online, we feel if we start to see a downward movement in spot it could accelerate quite fast,” he said. </b>

Quote from InvestVision:

As per API released Report
Crude stocks -1.2 million barrels ,
Gasoline -3.7 MM ,
distillate +1.8 MM .

Platts forecasted for -1 MM , -1.5 MM,+1MM

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ap...n-barrels-2013-08-20?link=MW_home_latest_news

If EIA numbers are inline with API when related Wednesday , Crude Stock pile report is Positive with BIG GASOLINE stocks Drop of 3.7 MM which is higher DROP than PLATTS analysts consensus forecast..
 
Quote from Visaria:

What was the motivation behind this trade? Was it chart related? Or more fundamental e.g. perhaps more demand for nearer term oil than longer dated?

lower highs... weakness.. the z in the z/m is so close to the front , its got alot of direction to it..
 
<b>Point to Note: SEPT contract expired at discount to front OCTOBER . </b>

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324619504579026132108728184.html

October-delivery light, sweet crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading 1.3%, or $1.33, lower at $103.78 a barrel.

NEW YORK--Crude-oil futures prices turned sharply lower after midday, along with equities, as traders focus on hints from the Federal Reserve on its plan to scale back its massive economic stimulus program intensified.

<b>"We're seeing some long liquidation with the stock market heading lower," said Andy Lebow, senior vice president of energy futures at Jefferies Bache LLC.

1/ Mr. Lebow said investor nerves were jangled when the September crude-oil futures contract expired Tuesday at a discount to the October contract.
2/ For the past month, the front-month contract traded at a premium to the second-month contract, signifying strong near-term demand for crude that is now in doubt.

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The selloff flies in the face of supportive U.S. oil inventory data which showed refiner-demand for crude oil last week was the highest at this time of year since 2004. That strong demand pulled crude oil stocks down by a bigger-than-expected 1.4 million barrels to 359 million barrels, the lowest level since the end of August 2012, data from the Energy Information Administration show.

"I thought the EIA numbers were good," Mr. Lebow said, meaning they would be supportive for crude oil. "But when we saw the weak expiration, that was real to people. Now, we've got the Fed. That's a big event and people are taking some protection."

3/ Crude-oil prices are weak on the notion that seasonal maintenance soon will be reducing refiners' needs, and that the Federal Reserve's intention to reduce its massive economic stimulus program may have a ripple effect of increasing oil prices in local currencies in emerging nations, slowing demand growth.


October-delivery light, sweet crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading 1.3%, or $1.33, lower at $103.78 a barrel.

ICE North Sea Brent crude oil for October was 37 cents lower, at $109.78 a barrel.

The EIA data also showed gasoline inventories fell by four million barrels, compared with expectations of a 1.3 million-barrel drop. Stocks fell to the lowest level in three months as imports dropped in the week, and demand inched up to 9.2 million barrels a day, a 1.3% rise from the same week last year.
 
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