CL Redux
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
We just have not seen that kind of move for a while.
Last ten days average range of CL has been about 1.20, with a .48 standard deviation. To get to 90, we would have to have a true range today of at least $2.30. Last time we had that was November 20.
Eventually we will break out in terms of volatility and ATR, but given the dips and retracements of today, it seems low probability. I'm hoping for 89.25.
Quote from NoDoji:
OK, I think you meant 87.82?
Indeed, fortunately.
Does anyone remember CL in the before time, the long, long ago, back when it would sometimes move a whole point in a minute or two?
That in and of itself is probably bearish, this is x-mas rally mode, happens every year, but crude cannot fully participate b/c supplies swollen, and the market isn`t really set up for a short oriented market, will be interesting if we get divergence in 2013, and funds think they can make money shorting crude, will take a huge philosophical mindset adjustment.
The s&p has large amount of oil industry makeup, shorting oil, makes it hard to move up s&p completely.
They are so ingrained in the oil can never go down mode, see housing 2008, that the i banks still have 120 Brent targets even today (Barclay's), but literally Saudi is producing lowest amount in 12 months, and no draw-downs as producers are producing more oil than we consume everyday.
all markets are worried about reduced volatility, but the oil trading shops have been discussing this in-house, that they can survive for a couple of years with this, but longer they are in trouble, will have to find new ways of making money.
there were 2 stretches of low volatility 1) after the summer sell-off, 2) the last 2 months in 2012.
volatility is being manufactured or it would be much worse, those closing sell runs trying to trap traders needing to liquidate before pit close, only to fully recover ah = manufactured volatility between am and pm markets to scratch out some money.
Gone is the days up unlimited upside b/c of middle east bs, at least for the next couple of years, plenty of supplies, the real question for wall street, they are a bunch of sheep, how long til they all get on the same page and start shorting the market for profits, this is where the volatility can come from, but it will take a dramatic change in how they think, you are starting to see some bearish forecasts, but you need everybody bearish on oil, to get the crowded trade effect.
But markets in general are going to have less volatility, everybody`s solid these days, a poker reference
That in and of itself is probably bearish, this is x-mas rally mode, happens every year, but crude cannot fully participate b/c supplies swollen, and the market isn`t really set up for a short oriented market, will be interesting if we get divergence in 2013, and funds think they can make money shorting crude, will take a huge philosophical mindset adjustment.
The s&p has large amount of oil industry makeup, shorting oil, makes it hard to move up s&p completely.
They are so ingrained in the oil can never go down mode, see housing 2008, that the i banks still have 120 Brent targets even today (Barclay's), but literally Saudi is producing lowest amount in 12 months, and no draw-downs as producers are producing more oil than we consume everyday.
all markets are worried about reduced volatility, but the oil trading shops have been discussing this in-house, that they can survive for a couple of years with this, but longer they are in trouble, will have to find new ways of making money.
there were 2 stretches of low volatility 1) after the summer sell-off, 2) the last 2 months in 2012.
volatility is being manufactured or it would be much worse, those closing sell runs trying to trap traders needing to liquidate before pit close, only to fully recover ah = manufactured volatility between am and pm markets to scratch out some money.
Gone is the days up unlimited upside b/c of middle east bs, at least for the next couple of years, plenty of supplies, the real question for wall street, they are a bunch of sheep, how long til they all get on the same page and start shorting the market for profits, this is where the volatility can come from, but it will take a dramatic change in how they think, you are starting to see some bearish forecasts, but you need everybody bearish on oil, to get the crowded trade effect.
But markets in general are going to have less volatility, everybody`s solid these days, a poker reference
estimates
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (previous 372.61M)
Crude Oil Stocks (Net Change) (expected -0.9M; previous +0.84M)
Gasoline Stocks (previous 217.12M)
Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (expected +1.5M; previous +5M)
Distillate Stocks (previous 118.06M)
Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (expected +0.9M; previous +2.99M)
Refinery Usage (expected 90.3%; previous 90.4%)
Total Products Supplied (previous 18.83M)
Total Products Supplied (Net Change) (previous +0.49M)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (previous 372.61M)
Crude Oil Stocks (Net Change) (expected -0.9M; previous +0.84M)
Gasoline Stocks (previous 217.12M)
Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (expected +1.5M; previous +5M)
Distillate Stocks (previous 118.06M)
Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (expected +0.9M; previous +2.99M)
Refinery Usage (expected 90.3%; previous 90.4%)
Total Products Supplied (previous 18.83M)
Total Products Supplied (Net Change) (previous +0.49M)
