CL Redux
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
Brent expiration set the tone for the day, started last night, it is getting to the point where you can just go long on Brent expiration day, would have to backtest to check if matching my intuition, manufacturing data didn`t hurt, but brent was going to be finish green no matter what.
Another tendency is the market will hold up until brent rolls, then sell off, check to see how that plays out the next couple weeks.
Strange week, wti statrted so weak, just sitting there at 85.22 early in the week, then people wanted to frontrun the fed, had an abysmal inventory report, and finished the week the top of the range.
The supply issue is the real elephant, all the I banks want this much higher, but even OPEC has supply issues with Iraq finally reaching towards potential.
I think the smart money will be selling into any rallies, and the real question is how long until we finally break through to the downside - probably going to take just "in your face bearish supplies", and/or other assets selling off for some reason.
The problem is that most of the players who participate in this market are so stupid with regard to the fundamentals of the market that you have to avoid their stupidity, they will literally need to be hit over the head with it to shake their flawed assumptions.
Really the only reason oil sells off, is because asset managers know there will be major risk off in other asset classes, and they want to save their capital, so they exit, and even short since they know major asset capital is being pulled out of markets, the wonders of order flow in an overly cosolidated market.
Make no mistake oil just like equities is a long centered market, just equities don`t have inventory reports, and if wallstreet had its way, neither would wti
Another tendency is the market will hold up until brent rolls, then sell off, check to see how that plays out the next couple weeks.
Strange week, wti statrted so weak, just sitting there at 85.22 early in the week, then people wanted to frontrun the fed, had an abysmal inventory report, and finished the week the top of the range.
The supply issue is the real elephant, all the I banks want this much higher, but even OPEC has supply issues with Iraq finally reaching towards potential.
I think the smart money will be selling into any rallies, and the real question is how long until we finally break through to the downside - probably going to take just "in your face bearish supplies", and/or other assets selling off for some reason.
The problem is that most of the players who participate in this market are so stupid with regard to the fundamentals of the market that you have to avoid their stupidity, they will literally need to be hit over the head with it to shake their flawed assumptions.
Really the only reason oil sells off, is because asset managers know there will be major risk off in other asset classes, and they want to save their capital, so they exit, and even short since they know major asset capital is being pulled out of markets, the wonders of order flow in an overly cosolidated market.
Make no mistake oil just like equities is a long centered market, just equities don`t have inventory reports, and if wallstreet had its way, neither would wti