Quote from NoDoji:
Here is my cautionary message to anyone wanting to trade CL .......
If you find patterns that lead into these tradable price swings more often than not, and you can recognize them at the hard right edge of price action, then you have the first "gift" necessary for profitable manual trading: pattern recognition skills.
Then analyze the max favorable and adverse price excursion (MFE & MAE)
Every now and then I come up with things-to-do even before starting paper trading assignments. Or things I whish I'd done before paper trading and then live trading.
I always backtested MFE & MAE and didn't spend that much time looking at what seemed obvious results to me. But the way Donna put it that from one point of view ALL your trade management stands or falls on this building block. Aha!
I've been chewing on that for a few days. HOW to do this is.... I keep a 'daily decision log' of screenshots with notations so that I see what I am thinking at the hard right edge.
I'm adding to the screenshots. I take screenshots [rather than papertrades] at the places my setups say to enter. Label the screenshot 'long' or 'short' and go on watching. I'll go back later and add in the actual MFE&MAE. Start building in that data without the *limitations* of actual stops and targets. I see better that way, it doesn't engage my emotions.
in essence I'm proving my "pattern rec skils" with the screenshots, and then building the data for the MFE's and MAE's. All things to do possibly before even paper trading.
Ausinp had the observation that many approach trading as a roll of the dice... more gambling than a business approach. I think I used to look at Donna's list of 'gifts' to develop... and said that hey, here are a list of set ups in Al Brooks book. Shaved 2 - 3 months of work off Donna's list! And I can backtest the MFE's and MAE's in a hour or two looking at charts, that's easy. And over here is a book with trading rules writen out. Another 2-3 months work done for me! Why repeat the effort? Whoo hoo, I'm ready to go.
Where I'm at in my trading, I can paper trade and am consistent to the point it's redundant to keep papertrading. But when I trade live... I put together strings of winning days.... 9 in a row is my most... and this is making 10 or more trades a day trading full time. But then I get off track in reading my setups. I mostly loose confidence. Or I get greedy and fearful and start moveing my stops/targets... and my tading falls apart.
I cycle in and out of doing that.
It is possible that I've short changed myself by not doing the necessary work for myself. To trade with the Confidence necessary to be consistant I have to do the work myself. I have not earned that gift. Yet.
It's embarrasing to say I need to go back to even before paper trading and put in a better foundation piece. But there it is.
#@@%*-ing work ethic! *sigh* Ohwell, better get on with it.