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Gulf sabers rattle as Iran sanctions bite
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/06/us-iran-gulf-tensions-idUSBRE8650A820120706
1/ (Reuters) - Iran and the United States might be talking up their readiness for war in the Gulf but beneath the rhetoric, all sides appear keen to avoid conflict and prevent accidental escalation - at least for now.
2/ "What we tend to see is that rhetoric from Iran tends to peak when you have developments around the sanctions issue," U.S. Deputy Chief of Naval Operations Vice Admiral Mark Fox told a naval conference at London's Royal United Services Institute.
"We saw this in 2010, we saw it in January this year. They use rhetoric and military exercises to make their point ... but it is always best to be prepared, and we always are."
3/"There is also a domestic component - reassuring their own populace that their armed forces are respected and feared."
Four months before a U.S. presidential election in which the economy could prove the deciding factor, Iran probably sees the ability to influence global oil prices as a potent and much more usable weapon than actual military action.
<b>"As the impact of European sanctions ... begins to create some economic hardship for Tehran, the timing of this announcement suggests that Iran is trying to imply that it in turn can cause economic pain for the world," said Nikolas Gvosdev, professor of national security studies </b> at the U.S. Naval War College.
4/ <b> "The risk of Iran actually carrying out the actions they are threatening is low," said Ari Ratner, a former Middle East adviser to the State Department earlier in the Obama administration and now a fellow at the left-leaning Truman National Security Foundation.</b>
"However, there is an increasing danger that this rhetoric or the increasing provocative actions by the Iranian side ... could result in a miscalculation ... The Gulf is becoming a tinderbox and an accidental spark may come at any time."
For all the talk, however, <b>naval officers say tensions in the Gulf between U.S.-led forces and their Iranian counterparts are if anything lower than several years or even months ago, with clear signals that Tehran itself is holding back. </b>
5/ ISREAL: Such action could still take place this year, despite doubts among many analysts that Israel has the capability to deliver a truly knockout blow and could simply end up motivating the Iranians to work faster to achieve nuclear capability.
But there are growing perceptions that this prospect may already be receding, with Israel and the United States likely instead continuing to rely on covert tactics such as the computer worm Stuxnet to slow Iran's nuclear progress.
6/ <b> "We're essentially backing them into a corner," said one veteran naval officer with much experience in the region. "As an old fighter pilot, we used to say: 'When you are out of options, redefine the fight that you're in' ... They'll have to either capitulate or do something unexpected. I believe they'll do anything if it comes down to defending the regime's existence." </b>
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/06/us-iran-gulf-tensions-idUSBRE8650A820120706
1/ (Reuters) - Iran and the United States might be talking up their readiness for war in the Gulf but beneath the rhetoric, all sides appear keen to avoid conflict and prevent accidental escalation - at least for now.
2/ "What we tend to see is that rhetoric from Iran tends to peak when you have developments around the sanctions issue," U.S. Deputy Chief of Naval Operations Vice Admiral Mark Fox told a naval conference at London's Royal United Services Institute.
"We saw this in 2010, we saw it in January this year. They use rhetoric and military exercises to make their point ... but it is always best to be prepared, and we always are."
3/"There is also a domestic component - reassuring their own populace that their armed forces are respected and feared."
Four months before a U.S. presidential election in which the economy could prove the deciding factor, Iran probably sees the ability to influence global oil prices as a potent and much more usable weapon than actual military action.
<b>"As the impact of European sanctions ... begins to create some economic hardship for Tehran, the timing of this announcement suggests that Iran is trying to imply that it in turn can cause economic pain for the world," said Nikolas Gvosdev, professor of national security studies </b> at the U.S. Naval War College.
4/ <b> "The risk of Iran actually carrying out the actions they are threatening is low," said Ari Ratner, a former Middle East adviser to the State Department earlier in the Obama administration and now a fellow at the left-leaning Truman National Security Foundation.</b>
"However, there is an increasing danger that this rhetoric or the increasing provocative actions by the Iranian side ... could result in a miscalculation ... The Gulf is becoming a tinderbox and an accidental spark may come at any time."
For all the talk, however, <b>naval officers say tensions in the Gulf between U.S.-led forces and their Iranian counterparts are if anything lower than several years or even months ago, with clear signals that Tehran itself is holding back. </b>
5/ ISREAL: Such action could still take place this year, despite doubts among many analysts that Israel has the capability to deliver a truly knockout blow and could simply end up motivating the Iranians to work faster to achieve nuclear capability.
But there are growing perceptions that this prospect may already be receding, with Israel and the United States likely instead continuing to rely on covert tactics such as the computer worm Stuxnet to slow Iran's nuclear progress.
6/ <b> "We're essentially backing them into a corner," said one veteran naval officer with much experience in the region. "As an old fighter pilot, we used to say: 'When you are out of options, redefine the fight that you're in' ... They'll have to either capitulate or do something unexpected. I believe they'll do anything if it comes down to defending the regime's existence." </b>
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