CL Redux

Oil futures struggle to find direction
Inventories report sent prices higher, but boost short-lived

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/cr...-a-barrel-2012-07-05?link=MW_home_latest_news

Traders earlier had been lukewarm to news that the European Central Bank delivered an interest-rate cut and that the Bank of England announced additional stimulus measures, as widely expected.

The People’s Bank of China also acted, cutting its benchmark lending and deposit rates. The central bank announced more relaxed rules on lending as well.

<b>- Stocks initially got dragged down by concerns about the European Central Bank’s warning of further downside risk for the euro zone.

- That overshadowed positive U.S. data, including a report showing a June pickup of private-sector jobs and a decline in the number of people submitting first-time applications for jobless benefits last week. </b>
 
Quote from InvestVision:

90-91 squeeze may be next week .

it may be hard to push to 90-91 (today/tomorrow ) given EURO big drop unless
- there is further WAR escalation news
OR
- EURO Recoup all the DROP .

we never know , let us see ..
More...
there is a mini hns in the eur usd withe neck around 1 2391,retest maybe get slightly above to that 2432 low then drop
 

Attachments

break of the 86 30 or test and not hold,could lead to 83 50 and the cleavage test this morning could have been enough for the fill,like to wait for the levels to get tested and see which direction it goes, then follow to next target..depending on timeframes this is only the 2nd step of more often than not 3 step moves
 

Attachments

$100 oil out of reach despite Iran saber-rattling

EU sanctions on Iran take effect, but Saudis help offset price impact
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/10...-rattling-2012-07-06?link=MW_home_latest_news

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — European Union sanctions on Iran officially went into effect this month, but for oil, the $100-a-barrel level remains out of reach for the U.S. benchmark, and lower prices may soon follow.

<b>1/ “I do not see anything that will lift prices significantly above $100 for the next three months,” said Kirk McDonald, senior research analyst at St. Louis-based Argent Capital Management. </b>

“We will definitely get some price spikes based on saber-rattling out of Iran and possible monetary easing from central banks, but it is difficult to forecast a rising trend when the economy is slowing,” he said.

<b>2/ WTI prices peaked well above $100 back in February of this year, in large part due to the EU’s decision to implement oil sanctions on Iran starting on July 1. </b>

More recently, Iran’s test-firing of missiles during military drills has helped “goose-up” oil prices, according to Byron King, editor of investment newsletter Outstanding Investments. Oil prices had traded below $80 as recently as late June.

“Iran rockets already have done their work,” he said. “Prices are rising off the bottom.”

<b>3/ The market is a long way from $100 on WTI crude because of a “three-pronged bearish attack on prices
a) from deteriorating demand from the euro-debt crisis,
b) a slowing U.S. economy
c) and signs of slowing in China,”
said Matt Smith, an analyst with Summit Energy.</b>

4/ There’s also a bearish impact on the supply side, with Saudi Arabia raising production, which stood at around 9.5 million barrels per day in 2011, according to U.S. government data.

U.S. onshore domestic production has ramped up too, while Saudi Arabia has increased production to 10 million barrels per day “and indicated it will do so further if needed,” Smith said.

Saudis to the rescue

<b>a) The Saudis,
b) a weaker global economy
c) and Europe’s debt crisis have combined to significantly soften the blow of any global supply cuts or disruptions related to Iran.</b>

5/ The Iran nuclear issue has been “dwarfed by the supply response by Saudi Arabia, and by the euro-debt crisis,” Smith said. “<b>Iranian concerns added a risk premium earlier in the year, but this has been unwound by both the Saudis boosting production and more headline-grabbing economic fears elsewhere.”</b>
 
Quote from InvestVision:

it seems we will see 85 to REFLECT EURO 1.2350 by tomorrow some time ( assume NO Further WAR escalation news )

and then

it may push back to 87 level by Friday close to REFLECT IRAN case and Weekend NO Open short policy in WAR news days .

weigh-in if you have view/opinion one way or other .
More...

Good call IV
rasta10.gif


NFP #s at 8:30
 
07/06/2012 08:30 *DJ US Jun Nonfarm Payrolls +80K; Consensus +100K

07/06/2012 08:30 *DJ US Jun Unemployment Rate 8.2%; Consensus 8.2%
 
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