CL Redux

Quote from Visaria:

out of shorts at 78.00



:D
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Very good pre FMOC meeting analyis from this guy Arora on JUN 19 th saying Commodities (OIL , GOLD ) are positioned for QE3 where as Stocks positioned for Twist.

- It is facinating to see the % Drop in commodities ( higher % drop ) and stocks (lower % drop ) reflect Pre position of the Market Participants in each markets. as said in article ..

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-to-trade-the-fed-meeting-2012-06-19


<b>4/ Gold And silver</b>Gold and silver markets are positioned for QE3.
( Crude OIL comes in this category )

<b>5/Stocks : </b> The stock market isn't positioned for QE, but it is positioned for some light monetary easing such as the extension of Operation Twist .


Quote from InvestVision:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-to-trade-the-fed-meeting-2012-06-19

How to trade the Fed meeting

1/ The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System holds eight scheduled meetings in a year. The results of these meetings provide not only trading opportunities, but also extremely valuable data points for investments. The June 19 to 20 FOMC meeting is upon us.

2/ As always, there is a wide variance among expectations by experts as to what the FOMC will do. The fact is that nobody other than perhaps the FOMC members knows the likely results of the meeting. Experts are simply guessing.

<b>3/ It pays to make an attempt to figure out how a majority of participants are positioned in various markets ahead of the FOMC meeting.
- If results of the meeting are in line with the positioning of a majority of participants, typically there is no trade.
- On the other hand, if the Fed statement is quite different from the positioning, there can be a violent reaction offering opportunities. </b>

<b>4/ Gold And silver</b>Gold and silver markets are positioned for QE3. In the present environment when interest rates are close to zero, QE (quantitative easing) is simply another way to reduce the cost of money

<b>5/Stocks : </b> The stock market isn't positioned for QE, but it is positioned for some light monetary easing such as the extension of Operation Twist. The Fed performs Operation Twist by selling short-term debt and buying long-term government debt. Operation Twist attempts to duplicate QE without expanding Fed's balance sheet. The theory is that Twist doesn't exert inflationary pressures similar to QE.
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http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2012/06/22/gasoline-to-hit-3-a-gallon-by-election-day/

Gasoline to hit $3 a gallon by election day?
June 22, 2012, 6:39 PM

Gasoline prices should fall even more by the fourth quarter, according to Tom Kloza, oil analyst at the Oil Price Information Service.

Kloza spoke with MarketWatch Radio’s Adrienne Mitchell.

1/ While gasoline prices are already well off the year’s highs, prices will easily drop another 15 to 25 cents a gallon nationally, Kloza says. And by the fourth quarter prices could fall below $3 a gallon “really really close to election day.”

Kloza says that timing is likely to spark “all sorts of conspiracy theorists that it suggest that people are standing over a cauldron…trying to orchestrate a drop in prices so that various folks can get re-elected.”

2/ In reality, however, he says prices will drop after Labor Day - because demand natural falls at the end of the summer driving season
- and because refiners no longer have to produce the summertime blends that fight pollution by using more expensive ingredients.

3/ The <b>main unknown factor in whether gasoline breaks below $3 is likely to be the hurricane season, since much of the nation’s refining capacity is centered along the gulf coast </b>.

4/ <b> Kloza says the decline in prices is also largely due to big increases in U.S. oil production thanks to expanded recovery of shale oils that have added 700,000 barrels a day to U.S. crude supplies. </b>

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