Long 106.97, stop 105.39, target 109+
CL Redux
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
One last thing, and then I have some other business. As a learning example/reminder, this quote is from last Monday 3-21-12 when I was up $700 from an early morning short, and didn't take the profit, and let it reverse and erase all of my gains, and check me out @ b/e. You remember that.
So the LOD on that day, the day after it gapped up on Sunday and began it's run, was 104.62. So the LOD today was 104.84, 22 ticks difference, but more or less the same level. In retrospect this was a strong buy signal. It successfully retested that low. But I was too tired to remember that and hadn't really checked that out before, as we know NoDoji does. Anyway just an observation for our future trading.
Have a great night.
Quote from BCE:
Me 2.Who would have thought it? Just goes to prove how unpredictable CL is.
Now I know someone will come on here and post my quote and say, "Oh, yeah I knew it would rebound like that." Please spare us. If you're going to make those statements, then post your trades in real-time. Then we'll congratulate you.
No one ever knows anything for sure about any specific single day or trade... nor does that have anything to do with profitable trading, at all.
At exactly 9:06am eastern time this morning, crude oil laid out its daily roadmap for anyone & everyone to view, measure and interpret. Every single person with zero exceptions who bothered to measure price without bias, without prejudice and without personal ego involved all had CL's own price map on their very own charts.
The only thing that matters is what YOU or ANYONE ELSE did with that. Because at day's end, only your own personal execution reflects in your own account balance
"The U.S. exported more gasoline, diesel and other fuels than it imported in 2011 for the first time since 1949, the Energy Department said today."
Interesting
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-29/u-s-was-net-oil-product-exporter-in-2011.html
Interesting
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-29/u-s-was-net-oil-product-exporter-in-2011.html
You give me too much credit, I doubt I would've noted an old level like that. However, the measured move target for the next leg down (after the post-inventory low printed and price pulled back toward the 20EMA) was 104.77. The quick second test of .84 and failure to break further was indeed a very strong reversal signal, considering it was inventory day and it seems like 90% of the time price retraces the entire post-inventory move by the end of the day.
You know, you posted a similar chart the other day with similar remarks, but didn't explain it. And I made some marks on your chart to show what I saw or didn't see. Are you willing to share what you saw this morning that told you that "exactly 9:06am eastern time this morning, crude oil laid out its daily roadmap for anyone & everyone to view, measure and interpret"? I don't see it. I see some horizontal lines that look like Fibonacci lines but are something else, but see that CL traded through those lines. I don't understand what you're seeing that shows that CL "laid out its daily roadmap for anyone & everyone to view, measure and interpret" at 9:06am ahead of time. Do you draw these lines from the first or second 5 min bar and trade off of that? I see your horizontal lines, but I see price action trading right through those lines, so how are they relevant? What kind of lines are those? Anyone can look at a chart at the EOD and explain why it makes sense. Are you trying to say you pretty much knew CL would trade below 105 and above 107 today late in the day and you knew this @9:06 am? I find that hard to believe.Quote from austinp:
No one ever knows anything for sure about any specific single day or trade... nor does that have anything to do with profitable trading, at all.
At exactly 9:06am eastern time this morning, crude oil laid out its daily roadmap for anyone & everyone to view, measure and interpret. Every single person with zero exceptions who bothered to measure price without bias, without prejudice and without personal ego involved all had CL's own price map on their very own charts.
The only thing that matters is what YOU or ANYONE ELSE did with that. Because at day's end, only your own personal execution reflects in your own account balance
The way I look at opening range if it might help others fine if not thats ok too.
Picture the opening 5 min range and all the open interest that piled in at that time. Now picture that you can only win to the extent that the other side is willing to lose because this is a zero sum game. That opening range will allow you to see where the balance or skew of the day as it unfolds from top to bottom .
Above opening range and bulls are winning, below , bears are winning. Price not to ofen closes at the high or low of day. Usually reaches an extreme (ATR) and tries to come back to balance by end of day.
My 2 cents on the matter. It may or may be not how austin views it but I also keep track of where the open top and bottom is throughout the day.
You just go off of the opening 5 min bar? Doesn't seem that important. I look at the opening ranges too, but not just one bar. I look for the high and low of the overnight session and especially look at any channels before the open with the most important part the nearer it is to the open. Here's a 5 min chart of TF. The pre-open to 9:30 AM range was from 824 minus a little to 826. And I've drawn horizontal lines to indicate that. When it breaks out of that range I take note and trade accordingly.
What kind of horizontal bars are on austinp's chart? Not Fibonacci.
One other thing is CL actually opens @ 9 AM.
Everyone knows that obviously. No news there.Quote from austinp:
The only thing that matters is what YOU or ANYONE ELSE did with that. Because at day's end, only your own personal execution reflects in your own account balance
One last, last thing is price does seem to frequently close near the high or low of the day. My observation.
Last, last, last.
This chart also is in keeping with Larry Williams' remark about the high or low frequently occurs in the first hour. Bernanke made sure it was the high.