CL Redux

Oil Increases a Sixth Day as Iran Nuclear Work Poses Supply Risk

“This current supply-shock potential that the markets are looking at with Iran has pushed the price well above our outlook,” said David Lennox, a resource analyst at Fat Prophets in Sydney, who had forecast oil trading from $80 to $90 a barrel. “The situation in Europe will still take some time for the corrective activities to flow through to the real economy.”

<b>Fibonacci Resistance</b>
Oil in New York has technical resistance around $99.60 a barrel, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
- That’s the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the price drop from the 2011 high in May to the low in October,
- and is close to the upper Bollinger Band on the daily chart.
- Sell orders tend to be clustered near chart-resistance levels

<b>‘Indigenous Design’</b>
The UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency, drawing on evidence collected over eight years, reported yesterday that Iran carried out “work on the development of an indigenous design of a nuclear weapon including the testing of components.”

Iran is the second-largest producer behind Saudi Arabia in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, a 12-member group that pumps about 40 percent of the world’s crude.

<b>OPEC 2015 estimate</b>
OPEC yesterday raised its estimates for global oil consumption to 2015, citing a faster-than-forecast economic recovery.
- Demand will increase 5.3 percent to 92.9 million barrels a day in the next four years, led by emerging Asian economies, according to the group’s annual World Oil Outlook.
- The 2015 prediction is 1.9 million barrels more than last year’s forecast. Europe’s debt crisis and slowing growth in the U.S. pose risks, it said.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...y-as-iran-nuclear-work-poses-supply-risk.html
 
Quote from InvestVision:

short 96.78
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out 96.84 whooooof ..
boy , it became so hard to get out this Bear Trap position as Kid indicated in the other post . yes it is Iran , S&P 30 point drop could not take oil down due to Iran news ...
 
Quote from oraclewizard77:

I went short much lower but want to give you credit for this trade since it made me look at market to see if trend changed to short, which it did since I noticed a LH was being made. I was able to do my best trade of the week today and stick to my rules.
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Thank you for sharing that, I am pleased to have been of help. If you are still in you will see I posted my take profit target also. If you get $4 from this I shall be very pleased indeed.

Good trading all!
 
Quote from InvestVision:


a resource analyst at Fat Prophets in Sydney,

I wonder if they are hiring I would be so proud to tell people I work there.

Doesn't OPEC always say there is going to be increased demand?

This whole situation that the world faces seems surreal. I hope it ends soon., the world that is...
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<b>Could Shale Gas Reignite the U.S. Economy? </b>

Unlocking vast reserves of shale gas could solve the energy crisis, the jobs crisis, and the deficit. Now, about fracking’s safety ..

<b> “The United States,” McClendon boasts, “has the capacity to become the Saudi Arabia of natural gas.” </b>

<b>This thing is a potential game-changer,” </b>says Fred Krupp, president of the New York-based Environmental Defense Fund (EDF).
- Shale production in the U.S. has increased from practically nothing in 2000 to more than 13 billion cubic feet per day, or about 30 percent of the country’s natural gas supply.

- That proportion is heading <b>toward 50 percent in </b>coming years.
- <b>The U.S. passed Russia in 2009 to become the world’s largest producer of natural gas.</b>
- An Energy Dept. advisory panel on which Krupp sits estimated in August that more than 200,000 jobs, both direct and indirect,

Chesapeake that are talking big. ConocoPhillips (COP) is investing $2 billion in gas in 2011, up from $500 million two years ago.
- Other multinational oil giants, such as ExxonMobil (XOM) and Shell, are likewise diverting billions into domestic shale gas projects. “We believe so strongly in natural gas that it’s a major portion of our portfolio,” Conoco CEO James J. Mulva told an audience at the Detroit Economic Club in September.
- Last month, the potential for U.S. shale gas spurred Kinder Morgan (KMI) to acquire rival pipeline operator El Paso Corp. (EP) for $21.1 billion. It also drove the proposed $4.4 billion purchase of Brigham Exploration (BEXP) by Norway’s Statoil (STO).


http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/could-shale-gas-reignite-the-us-economy-11032011.html
 
CL showed serious relative strength vs the market after the report, couldn't even retest the day's lows during the late day selloff and and yesterday's low served as twice-tested support.

The daily chart uptrend is not only intact, but appears quite strong.

Intraday, great stuff both directions (as usual).

Nice fade short entry, Blotto. 97.78 was a distant daily bar resistance in line to be tested and by the time price got there, it had four strong pushes up from the inventory trend line breakout. I often dream about taking those trades, but almost never take them :p

I couldn't even bring myself to short until the 12:10 ET bar broke the steep uptrend line on the 5-min chart and then printed the first lower high in nearly two hours. Even after two shorts off that, I bought 96.82 (second entry) when price failed to reach the lower channel line, expecting an upper trend line breakout and a possible measured move into the the 99.00's. The UTL broke twice and failed to traverse and when the ES broke the LOD, everyone threw in the towel together.

Brooks students, check out the PA From the 95.39 trend line breakout long trigger; the 1-min pullbacks worked every time, allowing easy re-entries or add-ons all the way up. The trend was so strong that even the first breakdown of the 1-min 20 EMA around 11:40 ET was snapped up by the bulls for another strong push up.

(Times are MT)

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