That move is one of the highest probability moves you can trade with CL. Take notes, because you'll make money once you learn to recognize this stuff in real time:
Price in a down trend, deeply retracing a strong morning uptrend.
During the 12:25pm ET bar, price finds support in the congestion zone prior to the morning breakout (9:05-9:25am ET consolidation zone).
Price breaks a previous 5-min bar high during the 12:35 bar and fizzles, breaking down again and attracting more shorts.
Draw the lower trend line across the 8:10 pivot low and the 12:25 pivot low. A touch to this line or very near it that finds support will set up a 1-2-3 reversal play.
Price pulls back to the TL and buyers step in again.
Early long trigger is to buy a break of the high of the 12:35 or 12:40 bar.
Confirmed 1-2-3 reversal trigger is to buy a break of the 97.95 bar that lured in additional short sellers. That's where all their stops are and worst case you'll have a stop run/failed breakout and can exit for a scratch or very small loss.
Price breaks out with conviction. There is now no reason to exit the long trade unless the low of the breakout bar (12:50pm ET bar) is taken out.
Price consolidates in a narrow range on low volume and previous resistance (97.95) holds perfectly as support in this narrow range.
Inexperienced traders interpret consolidation as weakness and are shorting here because it looks "weak".
The second long entry trigger will be a break through 98.11 (or 98.15 if you want extra confirmation).
Once price breaks this level, the next levels in line to break through are 98.34 (98.35 was the first pivot low that broke downside following the early morning trend up), 98.50 (internal double resistance earlier), the high of the day, then 98.99, 99.30, and 99.61 (all these are 60-min chart levels above today's high at that point in time).
As each level breaks with conviction, you can trail a stop.
The round numbers are very key and 98.99 level will very likely be a take-profit zone. Prepare to take profit if the level fails to break, or breaks weakly and pulls back quickly inside the breakout level.
This is all very likely price action based on how CL trades. There's no coin flip to it. The probabilities are very much in your favor.
Consolidation in a narrow range on low volume following a strong move is signal of continuation, not weakness.
