CL Redux
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
Nice flip BTW.
I agree that "large" is in the eye of the trader. Sure it's nice to have $1000+ trades, but you just need to look at what's actually going on. Not what we think is going on or what we want to go on. The thing with taking "smaller" profits, like $300-400 is they all add up. If for instance you have two $300 trades and one $400 trade each day that's $1000. And just really keep the losses small. If you make $1000 a day that's about $250k per year. Not too bad.
The other thing is on that run up earlier where you were up $1590 V is if you take that and still have a target of 98 or whatever, that's okay. You can reenter on a pullback which is what happened. Pulled back to 96.20 or whatever and you're long again. This is not to mention flipping short near the top like Kid did. The move up was pretty parabolic and was unlikely to continue directly especially without any obvious fundamental push that I could detect.
In that example let's add commissions and make it 15% of profit.
Your logic is like saying, "I'd rather make $50K a year rather than $250K, because I'll only pay $10K in taxes, versus $100K" ... I'd rather net $150K and pay 40% taxes, than $40K and pay 20% taxes--who cares how much I pay in overhead? (edited numbers)
Currencies
July 5, 2011, 11:31 a.m. EDT
Dollar gains on Greek-bailout worries
Swedish central bank hikes rates; Australia stands pat
By Deborah Levine and William L. Watts, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) â The U.S. dollar rose on the euro Tuesday amid more back-and-forth debate over whether the latest plan to give Greece more financial aid would constitute a default, causing uncertain investors to shift away from the shared currency.
The euro also came under pressure as a round of lackluster economic figures damped prospects for more interest-rate increases from the European Central Bank beyond one anticipated this week.
The dollar index (NYE-DXY) , which measures the greenbackâs performance against six other currencies, stood at 74.568, up 0.4% from Monday when U.S. markets were closed for Independence Day.
The euro (ICAPC:EURUSD) fell to $1.4447, down 0.7% from Monday, when it touched its highest level in about a month.
The euro lost 0.9% against the Swiss franc (ICAPC:EURCHF) , considered a clearer indicator of tradersâ willingness to hold euros.
The shared currency lost about 0.7% against the British pound (ICAPC:EURGBP) and 0.3% versus the Japanese yen (ICAPC:EURJPY) .
The euro stayed down after the final June purchasing managers index reading for the 17-nation euro zone fell more than anticipated, retreating to a 20-month low. Read more on euro sone PMI.
Separately, the European Unionâs statistics agency reported that retail sales in the euro zone for May saw a 1.1% monthly drop versus forecasts for a 0.8% decline.
On Thursday, the European Central Bankâs governing board is widely expected to approve a hike in rates of 0.25 percentage point.
However, the latest data from the region suggest that âgrowth has slowed significantly and may force [central bank chief Jean-Claude] Trichet and company to reevaluate any further tightening for the rest of the year,â wrote Boris Schlossberg, head of currency research at GFT, in a note.
Also Tuesday, the Financial Times reported that the European Central Bank plans to continue accepting Greek government bonds as collateral for loans, provided that at least one major credit-rating firm doesnât declare the country to be in default. Read more about ECB, Greek banks.
That followed a Wall Street Journal report that the bailout plan put forth by French banks would, according to Standard & Poorâs, constitute a default.
The central bank declined comment on the Financial Times story. Economists said the report underlines expectations that it would take whatever measures are necessary to maintain funding to Greek banks in the event Greece does fail to repay debt.
âThis is crucial for Greek banks since they rely almost completely on the ECB to keep themselves alive, without this then the Greek financial sector would collapse, possibly causing contagion across the euro zone,â said Kathleen Brooks, research director at Forex.com.
Pound gains on PMI
Also Tuesday, the British pound edged higher after the British services-sector June PMI reading unexpectedly ticked up to 53.9 from 53.8 in May. Economists had forecast a reading of 53.5. Sterling (ICAPC:GBPUSD) pared gains to just 0.1%, trading at $1.6085.
The Swedish krona was mixed after Swedenâs central bank, as had been expected, raised its repo rate by a quarter percentage point, to 2%.
âWe continue to expect the Riksbank to deliver consecutive rate hikes to 2.75% by year-end but admit that the likelihood for a Riksbank pause has increased as the [second-half] international outlook is less optimistic,â wrote analysts at SEB in Stockholm.
They expect the euro to continue to lose ground versus the Swedish currency âbut at a very moderate pace, and short term, we may see some profit-taking after the rally higher versus the euro seen in the last week.â
The euro (ICAPC:EURSEK) declined 0.3% versus the Swedish unit to trade at 9.0713 kronor.
Overnight, the Reserve Bank of Australia left its key cash rate on hold at 4.75%. The Australian dollar (ICAPC:AUDUSD) traded at $1.0692, down from $1.0719 on Monday after the decision.
Against the yen, the greenback (ICAPC:USDJPY) rose to ¥81.09, from ¥80.80 in the previous session.
July 5, 2011, 11:31 a.m. EDT
Dollar gains on Greek-bailout worries
Swedish central bank hikes rates; Australia stands pat
By Deborah Levine and William L. Watts, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) â The U.S. dollar rose on the euro Tuesday amid more back-and-forth debate over whether the latest plan to give Greece more financial aid would constitute a default, causing uncertain investors to shift away from the shared currency.
The euro also came under pressure as a round of lackluster economic figures damped prospects for more interest-rate increases from the European Central Bank beyond one anticipated this week.
The dollar index (NYE-DXY) , which measures the greenbackâs performance against six other currencies, stood at 74.568, up 0.4% from Monday when U.S. markets were closed for Independence Day.
The euro (ICAPC:EURUSD) fell to $1.4447, down 0.7% from Monday, when it touched its highest level in about a month.
The euro lost 0.9% against the Swiss franc (ICAPC:EURCHF) , considered a clearer indicator of tradersâ willingness to hold euros.
The shared currency lost about 0.7% against the British pound (ICAPC:EURGBP) and 0.3% versus the Japanese yen (ICAPC:EURJPY) .
The euro stayed down after the final June purchasing managers index reading for the 17-nation euro zone fell more than anticipated, retreating to a 20-month low. Read more on euro sone PMI.
Separately, the European Unionâs statistics agency reported that retail sales in the euro zone for May saw a 1.1% monthly drop versus forecasts for a 0.8% decline.
On Thursday, the European Central Bankâs governing board is widely expected to approve a hike in rates of 0.25 percentage point.
However, the latest data from the region suggest that âgrowth has slowed significantly and may force [central bank chief Jean-Claude] Trichet and company to reevaluate any further tightening for the rest of the year,â wrote Boris Schlossberg, head of currency research at GFT, in a note.
Also Tuesday, the Financial Times reported that the European Central Bank plans to continue accepting Greek government bonds as collateral for loans, provided that at least one major credit-rating firm doesnât declare the country to be in default. Read more about ECB, Greek banks.
That followed a Wall Street Journal report that the bailout plan put forth by French banks would, according to Standard & Poorâs, constitute a default.
The central bank declined comment on the Financial Times story. Economists said the report underlines expectations that it would take whatever measures are necessary to maintain funding to Greek banks in the event Greece does fail to repay debt.
âThis is crucial for Greek banks since they rely almost completely on the ECB to keep themselves alive, without this then the Greek financial sector would collapse, possibly causing contagion across the euro zone,â said Kathleen Brooks, research director at Forex.com.
Pound gains on PMI
Also Tuesday, the British pound edged higher after the British services-sector June PMI reading unexpectedly ticked up to 53.9 from 53.8 in May. Economists had forecast a reading of 53.5. Sterling (ICAPC:GBPUSD) pared gains to just 0.1%, trading at $1.6085.
The Swedish krona was mixed after Swedenâs central bank, as had been expected, raised its repo rate by a quarter percentage point, to 2%.
âWe continue to expect the Riksbank to deliver consecutive rate hikes to 2.75% by year-end but admit that the likelihood for a Riksbank pause has increased as the [second-half] international outlook is less optimistic,â wrote analysts at SEB in Stockholm.
They expect the euro to continue to lose ground versus the Swedish currency âbut at a very moderate pace, and short term, we may see some profit-taking after the rally higher versus the euro seen in the last week.â
The euro (ICAPC:EURSEK) declined 0.3% versus the Swedish unit to trade at 9.0713 kronor.
Overnight, the Reserve Bank of Australia left its key cash rate on hold at 4.75%. The Australian dollar (ICAPC:AUDUSD) traded at $1.0692, down from $1.0719 on Monday after the decision.
Against the yen, the greenback (ICAPC:USDJPY) rose to ¥81.09, from ¥80.80 in the previous session.
Quote from BCE:
Nice flip BTW.
I agree that "large" is in the eye of the trader. Sure it's nice to have $1000+ trades, but you just need to look at what's actually going on. Not what we think is going on or what we want to go on. The thing with taking "smaller" profits, like $300-400 is they all add up. If for instance you have two $300 trades and one $400 trade each day that's $1000. And just really keep the losses small. If you make $1000 a day that's about $250k per year. Not too bad.
The other thing is on that run up earlier where you were up $1590 V is if you take that and still have a target of 98 or whatever, that's okay. You can reenter on a pullback which is what happened. Pulled back to 96.20 or whatever and you're long again. This is not to mention flipping short near the top like Kid did. The move up was pretty parabolic and was unlikely to continue directly especially without any obvious fundamental push that I could detect.
Yes, i understand that. Many small profits can and do add up to significant gains.
Getting out and re-entering on a pullback? Okay, but how do i know it's going to pullback? I don't think i have the skill to do that.
I have to leave in 15 minutes and don't want to sit through a pullback, took profit for +6 at .79 when it hit the upper TL connecting across prior two highs... it looks more up than down, but I don't want a deep retrace to take me out for -30 and then a move up, while I'm not here... so I'm out, and have a good day everyone!!
Yeah you can do that. No one knows for sure how far it would pullback. But you look at the initial parabolic move up and say "That's quite a direct large move up and I'm up $1590, I'll take that profit." Then you watch it to see what it does or if you're tuned in like Kid you flip it which is maybe a little harder.
The thing is you just trade. If you go long again at 96.50 for instance on the pullback you place a stop at a reasonable level and then see what it does. I use tighter stops as I really pay a lot of attention to my entries. The commissions for reentering trades are miniscule. Round trips are like what $4.40 or so? One tick = $10 so why worry about it?
The other thing is once you've taken your "huge" profit of $1590 you have quite a huge buffer and plenty of funds to play with.