CL Redux

[BCE]

Quote from JoshDance:

I will be longing .01 just for fun, stop .93, target .20 ... and closing by 1:15 regardless.

I'm short @.00. Target was .70, and actually was .60. But not enough time and I'm out of here shortly and just wanted to enjoy the day off. I may check in at 3 PDT, my time, when trading resumes or just wait til tomorrow morning. Should have just taken the $150 while it was there right after my short. Oh, well.

 

[oraclewizard77]

No trades. Market not moving. Stuck in a 4 tick range, and not worth my time or effort. Will wait till market resumes later and/or trade on Tue.

 

[JoshDance]

Oh well it was fun and sim only anyway, I exited for -1 at 95 even. Have a good and safe 4th everyone!

 

[JoshDance]

So, here's the weekly chart.

Will we see a break through the lower support at 90, and perhaps a continuation of this 2.5 year bear flag to the downside? As the most recent swing high did not reach the upper channel line, this tends to favor this possibility. A target may be near the support around 65.

Or, will we bounce off of this lower channel line and retest the upper line, perhaps with a target of 122 or thereabouts?

What are your thoughts? Not asking for future predictions, just an analysis based on this chart!

 

[Visaria]

Going up, i would think from the chart.

 

[Visaria]

Long 9540, 50 t stop.

I'm in a drawdown at present, 6 consecutive losses.

 

[EON Kid]

Quote from JoshDance:

So, here's the weekly chart.

Will we see a break through the lower support at 90, and perhaps a continuation of this 2.5 year bear flag to the downside? As the most recent swing high did not reach the upper channel line, this tends to favor this possibility. A target may be near the support around 65.

Or, will we bounce off of this lower channel line and retest the upper line, perhaps with a target of 122 or thereabouts?

What are your thoughts? Not asking for future predictions, just an analysis based on this chart!

Nice channel, however I use an unadjusted chart which puts the 2009 low at about 33. In NT7 you can set the merge policy

 

[Visaria]

Looking for a 7th loss

 

[startraitor]

An oil spill in Jellystone? There will be hell to pay

 

[JoshDance]

Quote from EON Kid:

Nice channel, however I use an unadjusted chart which puts the 2009 low at about 33. In NT7 you can set the merge policy

The continuous contract or the non-back-adjusted chart is good for showing real historical prices, but the high-low swing ratios are not preserved, thus I use the back-adjusted chart to show the pattern we're in, with accurate high-low swings. The fact that we hit the low we did, which lines up perfectly on this chart, is testament to the fact that many others saw the same thing. So, I am not using the chart to show real prices, but rather simply this bull channel / bear flag. I have no idea what the actual prices will be, and as we're rolling monthly it doesn't matter that much anyway. What I'm showing in this chart that's important is the price trend we are in, which the chart you're referring to does not as accurately reflect.