CL Redux

Quote from BCE:

HAPPY HOLIDAY!!!!! Just checking in for a few. Hope everyone's having a great weekend.


While I'm at it L 95.00 :)
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I glanced at the chart and saw the 15m doji at 11:00 and thought to myself, "a short at .23 might be good for a move down to the day's low" but then thought, "nah volume's too low," and after I got my cereal and came back we had pushed down quite nicely, and as of right now we just made a new low at .85 -- sometimes these low volume periods can be quite orderly and calm, and nice to trade.

Happy 4th to all as well, see you tomorrow!
 
Quote from JoshDance:

I glanced at the chart and saw the 15m doji at 11:00 and thought to myself, "a short at .23 might be good for a move down to the day's low" but then thought, "nah volume's too low," and after I got my cereal and came back we had pushed down quite nicely, and as of right now we just made a new low at .85 -- sometimes these low volume periods can be quite orderly and calm, and nice to trade.

Happy 4th to all as well, see you tomorrow!
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Hi :) I flipped it short a few minutes ago. Not sure you saw that. Just fooling around for a few. Forgot what time this closes. I know it reopens at 6 EST as I recall.

Here it is. Just a short while longer.


Holiday Reminder
The Fourth of July is Monday, July 4th.

The Fourth of July is Monday, July 4th. Trading hours for many products and exchanges will change for the holiday. Hours and changes for major products are listed below. For any other products or details, please refer to the exchanges' holiday calendars.

All times are Central Time.


CME GROUP




Equity Products Friday, July 1st
Regular Close

Sunday, July 3rd
5:00pm Regular Open

Monday, July 4th
10:30am Trading Halt
5:00pm Trading Resumes

Interest Rate Products Friday, July 1st
3:15pm Close

Sunday, July 3rd
5:00pm Regular CME Open
5:30pm Regular CBOT Open

Monday, July 4th
12:00pm Trading Halt
5:00pm CME Trading Resumes
5:30pm CBOT Trading Resumes

FX Products Friday, July 1st
3:15pm Close

Sunday, July 3rd
5:00pm Regular Open

Monday, July 4th
12:00pm Trading Halt
5:00pm Trading Resumes

NYMEX & COMEX Products Friday, July 1st
4:15pm Close

Sunday, July 3rd
5:00pm Regular Open

Monday, July 4th
12:15pm Trading Halt
5:00pm Trading Resumes

Agriculture Products Friday, July 1st
Regular Close
3:15pm Close

Sunday, July 3rd
5:00pm Regular Open except Grains (6pm Monday), Lumber (9am Tues), Livestock (9:05am Tues)

Monday, July 4th
12:00pm Trading Halt
5:00pm Trading Resumes

Tuesday, July 5th
Regular Close



NYBOT / ICE


Equity Indexes Friday, July 1st
3:15pm Close

Sunday, July 3rd
Regular Open

Monday, July 4th
10:30am Close

Energies Friday, July 1st
12:30pm Close

Sunday, July 3rd
Regular Open

Monday, July 4th
12:30pm Close

Softs Friday, July 1st
Regular Close

Sunday, July 3rd
Regular Open

Monday, July 4th
Closed



EUREX
All Products Friday, July 1st
Regular Close

Sunday, July 3rd
Regular Trading Hours

Monday, July 4th
Regular Trading Hours





If you have any questions, please contact your account manager.


Happy Fourth of July!
 
Currencies

July 4, 2011, 8:31 a.m. EDT
Euro erases gains as S&P warns on rollover
Thai opposition election victory boosts baht

By William L. Watts and Virginia Harrison, MarketWatch

FRANKFURT (MarketWatch) — The euro erased its gains versus the U.S. dollar on Monday after a ratings company warned that the proposed rollover of Greek government debt would likely be considered a default.

The euro (ICAPC:EURUSD) was at $1.4500 in afternoon European trade, compared with $1.4508 in late North American action on Friday. The 17-nation shared currency set a three-week high above $1.4570 in earlier action. See real-time currency quotes and tools.

Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, in an emailed statement, said a proposal put together by French banks last week for private creditors to roll over Greek debt set to mature through 2014 would likely be viewed as a “selective default” if implemented. Read “S&P warns Greek debt rollover would be default.”

The euro was initially boosted in Asian activity after euro-zone finance ministers on Saturday approved the release of the European Union’s share of a delayed 12 billion euro installment of Greek aid seen as necessary to avert a near-term default.

Adam Cole, global head of foreign-exchange strategy at RBC Capital Markets in London, noted that no decision on private-sector participation in a new Greek bailout is expected until later this year, but acknowledged that the S&P comments underscore that coming up with a plan to involve the private sector in the new rescue “will not be straightforward.”

Overall, the Independence Day holiday in the United States is expected to contribute to a quiet tone in markets, analysts said.

The dollar index (NYE-DXY) , which measures the greenback against a basket of six rival currencies, stood at 74.277, down from 74.364 late Friday.

But investors face a busy week, with interest-rate decisions in store for Europe and Asia.

The European Central bank (ECB) is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, while the Bank of England will likely keep rates on hold amid concerns over a slowdown in the economic recovery.

“The easing of euro peripheral stress should allow markets to re-price further policy moves from the central bank, perhaps following the message to be delivered by ECB President [Jean-Claude] Trichet following the rate rise,” currency strategists at BNP Paribas said.

In the coming week, the strategists expect “willingness by real-money investors to add to long euro exposure, and for leveraged accounts to start participating on euro upside if it becomes clear dips aren’t running much below $1.4500.”

Meanwhile, Thailand’s stocks and currency jumped after weekend election results showed Yingluck Shinawatra’s opposition Pheu Thai party swept to victory. Shinawatra on Monay said her party plans to form a coalition government with four smaller parties. Thailand’s main stock index ended with a nearly 5% gain on Monday. Read "Thai stocks surge 5% on election results."

A pledge by Pheu Thai to guarantee farm prices and to boost the minimum wage by as much as 40% from current levels makes it likely the Bank of Thailand will hike its key lending rate next Wednesday by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.25% in order to preempt inflationary pressures, wrote strategists at Societe Generale.

The U.S. dollar fell 0.4% versus the Thai currency (ICAPC:USDTHB) to trade at 30.46 baht. The euro (ICAPC:EURTHB) fell 0.8% to fetch 44.1822 baht.

Meanwhile, the dollar (ICAPC:USDJPY) bought 80.80 Japanese yen, little changed from ¥80.84 in late North American trading on Friday.

The Australian dollar (ICAPC:AUDUSD) fell against the greenback after an unexpected drop in monthly retail sales, trading at $1.0719, down from $1.0771 ahead of the data. Read more about Australian retail sales.

On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold its monthly policy meeting, and economists expect it to keep the policy interest-rate target unchanged at 4.75%.
 
July 4, 2011, 10:14 a.m. EDT

S&P warns Greek debt rollover would be default
European officials seek private-sector involvement in Greek aid plan

By William L. Watts, MarketWatch

FRANKFURT (MarketWatch) — Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services on Monday dealt a blow to a French-led proposal to roll over Greek government debt, saying the plan would likely put Greece in “selective default.”

In a statement, the ratings company said it believes a pair of options presented last week by French banks ”would likely amount to default under our criteria.”

France's banking federation last week offered proposals that would see private creditors reinvest some of the proceeds of maturing Greek debt.

European politicians want private creditors to share some of the burden of a new rescue plan for Greece, while steering clear of any measures that would be deemed a default by ratings companies. The European Central Bank has warned that it won’t accept as collateral any Greek bonds that are declared to be in default.

The euro (ICAPC:EURUSD) traded at $1.4515 compared with $1.4508 in late North American action on Friday. Trading conditions were thin due to the Independence Day holiday in the United States. See real-time currency quotes and tools.

Euro-zone finance ministers over the weekend approved the release of the European Union’s share of a delayed 12 billion euro ($17.4 billion) installment of aid seen as necessary for Greece to avoid default this month. The move followed the approval of a new austerity plan by the Greek parliament last week.

In a joint statement issued Saturday after their conference call, the euro-zone ministers said consultations with Greece’s creditors “are underway in order to define the modalities for voluntary private-sector involvement with a view to achieving a substantial reduction in Greece’s year-by-year financing needs, while avoiding selective default.”

European Commission spokesman Amadeu Altafaj said the commission had no comment on the S&P report.

“We know that we are working on this private-sector involvement, so there is no decision taken yet,” he said, while highlighting the weekend statement’s emphasis on the need to avoid selective default.

Euro-zone officials also continued to work on an additional aid package for Greece, which is expected to top €100 billion, rivaling last year’s €110 billion package.

The proposal by France’s banking federation would see private creditors invest a minimum of 70% of maturing Greek debt into new Greek 30-year bonds with a coupon of 5.5%. Greece would use half of the original amount to meet financing needs while reinvesting the remaining 20% in zero-coupon bonds that would be used as collateral for the additional loans. Read more about the French rollover proposal.

Alternatively, banks would have the option of reinvesting 90% of maturing bonds into new five-year bonds with a 5.5% coupon. German banks last week said they were willing to participate in some form of a rollover. French banks, followed by German institutions, have the largest foreign exposure to Greek government debt.

S&P said that under its criteria, a “debt exchange or similar restructuring” would be deemed an effective default if the transaction is viewed as “distressed rather than purely opportunistic” and if the measures result in investors receiving less value than the promise of the original securities.

If either proposal were implemented, it would likely lead to Greece being declared to be in “selective default,” the company said.

The company said Greece’s near-term reliance on official financing, the government's difficulty in cutting its deficit, and prices for Greek government debt in the secondary market all underscore the country’s weak creditworthiness and point to a “realistic possibility” that either financing option would fit the “distressed” category.

S&P also noted that the new bonds issued under either proposal would have restricted transferability and would likely trade at a price significantly below par.

In addition, the ratings company said the 30-year bonds would far outstrip the maturities of any outstanding Greek government bonds and observed that speculative-grade issuers are rarely able to access market financing with such a long-dated bond.

Meanwhile, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, in an interview with Germany’s Spiegel magazine, said officials are making plans “in the unlikely event” Greece defaults in the future.

“Of course, as a responsible government, we’re preparing ourselves for the unlikely event that things defy all expectations and Greece actually does fail to make its payments,” he said. “Were that to happen, we’d try to avert uncontrolled developments.”

At the same time, “it would be completely wrong to cavalierly force Greece into insolvency because of the risks to the Greek economy and the danger of infecting financial markets,” Schaeuble said.
 
Up until now, I thought that with a time-based chart (say, a 1m chart), I would still get a blank space even when no transactions took place (for example I have no one minute bars from yesterday 7/3 during the 18:26-18:31 period, in fact I have no 18:30 5m bar either), However, looking back at other dull globex times it seems I do not get bars where no data occurred. There are some single-tick bars where the last traded price did not move but transactions took place (say, a volume of 1 in one minute)--yet, there are "missing" bars where no transactions took place.

I guess my thought was that time-based bars are supposed to close whether there is activity or not, but I guess that's not the case. Or perhaps this is a ninja thing (I am using ninja, and a Kinetick (IQFeed) data feed. ). Can anyone else confirm this for other software packages?
 
Quote from JoshDance:

Up until now, I thought that with a time-based chart (say, a 1m chart), I would still get a blank space even when no transactions took place (for example I have no one minute bars from yesterday 7/3 during the 18:26-18:31 period, in fact I have no 18:30 5m bar either), However, looking back at other dull globex times it seems I do not get bars where no data occurred. There are some single-tick bars where the last traded price did not move but transactions took place (say, a volume of 1 in one minute)--yet, there are "missing" bars where no transactions took place.

I guess my thought was that time-based bars are supposed to close whether there is activity or not, but I guess that's not the case. Or perhaps this is a ninja thing (I am using ninja, and a Kinetick (IQFeed) data feed. ). Can anyone else confirm this for other software packages?
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I'm likely to hang it up here shortly and do some other things. No volume. Then it will make a one point move in my favor but I won't be here. Kind of like when ND leaves her desk. :)
 
Quote from BCE:

Yeah I noticed that too. I have Ninja with the ZenFire feed. I was looking at NQ 1 min bars. Doesn't seem right. They should just have a hypen spacer or something.
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I think by "hypen spacer" you mean a no-wick, no-body bar that's just a single tick; these are printed when there is at least one transaction in the time period.

From a logical perspective, if I were coding this, I suppose for no transactions I could choose to display a single tick bar that was the last price traded for the last bar, even if there were no transactions. But perhaps it does make sense to simply not print a bar if there was no activity. I seem to recall in using Investor R/T that there was an option to print white space or hide white space in these situations. But I'm interested to see what other software packages do.

I'm just here reading and not really looking at charts anyway; got some 4th of july stuff to go to today, but while I'm here I thought I'd be somewhat productive :)
 
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