http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oi...-a-barrel-2011-06-07?link=MW_home_latest_news
Usually the oil ministers from OPEC member countries start telegraphing their intentions about two weeks before the big day, Summit Energyâs Smith said. That points to an OPEC likely divided, with Iran and Venezuela the price hawks that would like to see production unchanged, he added.
Analysts at Barclays Capital said market fundamentals warrant higher underlying production and not just a simple recalibration of existing quotas, adding that OPEC should recalibrate quotas âcloser to actual output levels and provide a clear signal of more actual output to come.â
âHowever, most OPEC members remain in a cautious price-defensive mode, and are likely to be attracted by the more headline-friendly quota adjustment rather than by the explicit signaling of a change in actual output,â they said.
Reuters reported Tuesday that Kuwaitâs oil minister expects the cartel to increase output as demand from Asia points to the need for more supply. Read more about the output report.
Prices would likely fall fast if OPEC âembraces a possible Saudi proposal to put through additional barrels over and above the 1.4 million excess that already exists over the official quota,â analysts at MF Global said in a note to clients Tuesday.
âWe will have to wait and see what happens, but there are reports that the Saudis have increased production going into the meeting and thus may be flexing their muscles in advance of a decision,â they added.