Gaddafi Is Out of Options
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2074926,00.html#ixzz1O31CykeH
Although Gaddafi clings to power, NATO strikes are believed to have crippled his ability to plan any serious military maneuvers â commanders no longer use mobile telephones, and roads are too dangerous to travel on, making communication by courier difficult. That, says Richard Dalton, the former British ambassador to Libya and associate fellow at the London think tank Chatham House, may leave Gaddafi little ability to exercise any day-to-day management over his forces â a deeply disturbing situation for a man who for decades commanded absolute authority over civilians and military alike. <b>"Gaddafi is finding it more and more difficult to maintain communication with his military," he says. "If NATO has succeeded in taking down secure military communications, that would also increase his exposure. </b>"
(See exclusive photos of Libya's rebels.)
Having concluded that Gaddafi is on the run, the coalition has upped its rhetoric during the past week, perhaps attempting to deepen the Libyan leader's anxiety. And the longer NATO's campaign persists, the less the motivation the rebels have to cut any deal with a dictator whose strength is steadily eroding. Britain and France have recently moved attack helicopters into places off the Libyan coast, ready to support rebels in close combat against Gaddafi's forces. <b>And British officials say they are considering sending so-called "bunker-buster" weapons, capable of destroying underground shelters in which Gaddafi and his family might be hiding. </b>
On Monday NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said Gaddafi was "increasingly isolated" with "those closest to him departing, defecting or deserting." Russian President Dmitri Medvedev last Friday broke with his country's opposition to NATO's pursuit of regime change in Libya, stating that it was time for the Libyan leader to go.
<b> Five Libyan generals who fled to Italy last weekend have appealed to their colleagues to abandon their posts. "The days of Gaddafi are truly finito," General Abdurrahman Shalgam told reporters in Rome on Monday. And on Tuesday, Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini said in Benghazi, the Libyan rebel stronghold, that "Gaddafi's regime is over," and "he has to leave the country."</b>
(See pictures of surreal life in Libya's no-fly zone.)
With Gaddafi's regime mortally wounded, the question now is how his rule will end. In an effort to end the conflict quickly by offering the Libyan leader alternatives to a war-crimes trial or death on the battlefield, Zuma is believed to have urged Gaddafi to accept immediate exile. "Zuma would have said, go quietly, and you could stay alive. If you don't then it will get a lot tougher in the next few weeks," says Patrick Smith, editor of the specialist newsletter Africa Confidential. Since the ICC prosecutor has sought indictments for Gaddafi and his sons, the family would need to leave Libya for a country that has not signed the ICC agreement. One option could be neighboring Mali, where Gaddafi enjoys strong support among some tribal leaders, and which he and his family could reach overland â avoiding the possibility of being shot down by NATO jets as they flee. "Mali would be extremely safe," Smith says.
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2074926,00.html#ixzz1O31CykeH
Although Gaddafi clings to power, NATO strikes are believed to have crippled his ability to plan any serious military maneuvers â commanders no longer use mobile telephones, and roads are too dangerous to travel on, making communication by courier difficult. That, says Richard Dalton, the former British ambassador to Libya and associate fellow at the London think tank Chatham House, may leave Gaddafi little ability to exercise any day-to-day management over his forces â a deeply disturbing situation for a man who for decades commanded absolute authority over civilians and military alike. <b>"Gaddafi is finding it more and more difficult to maintain communication with his military," he says. "If NATO has succeeded in taking down secure military communications, that would also increase his exposure. </b>"
(See exclusive photos of Libya's rebels.)
Having concluded that Gaddafi is on the run, the coalition has upped its rhetoric during the past week, perhaps attempting to deepen the Libyan leader's anxiety. And the longer NATO's campaign persists, the less the motivation the rebels have to cut any deal with a dictator whose strength is steadily eroding. Britain and France have recently moved attack helicopters into places off the Libyan coast, ready to support rebels in close combat against Gaddafi's forces. <b>And British officials say they are considering sending so-called "bunker-buster" weapons, capable of destroying underground shelters in which Gaddafi and his family might be hiding. </b>
On Monday NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said Gaddafi was "increasingly isolated" with "those closest to him departing, defecting or deserting." Russian President Dmitri Medvedev last Friday broke with his country's opposition to NATO's pursuit of regime change in Libya, stating that it was time for the Libyan leader to go.
<b> Five Libyan generals who fled to Italy last weekend have appealed to their colleagues to abandon their posts. "The days of Gaddafi are truly finito," General Abdurrahman Shalgam told reporters in Rome on Monday. And on Tuesday, Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini said in Benghazi, the Libyan rebel stronghold, that "Gaddafi's regime is over," and "he has to leave the country."</b>
(See pictures of surreal life in Libya's no-fly zone.)
With Gaddafi's regime mortally wounded, the question now is how his rule will end. In an effort to end the conflict quickly by offering the Libyan leader alternatives to a war-crimes trial or death on the battlefield, Zuma is believed to have urged Gaddafi to accept immediate exile. "Zuma would have said, go quietly, and you could stay alive. If you don't then it will get a lot tougher in the next few weeks," says Patrick Smith, editor of the specialist newsletter Africa Confidential. Since the ICC prosecutor has sought indictments for Gaddafi and his sons, the family would need to leave Libya for a country that has not signed the ICC agreement. One option could be neighboring Mali, where Gaddafi enjoys strong support among some tribal leaders, and which he and his family could reach overland â avoiding the possibility of being shot down by NATO jets as they flee. "Mali would be extremely safe," Smith says.
