CL Redux

Quote from Eddiemorra:

few people posted longs to me at around 98.40 as it bounced off of that last low at 98.20 an hour ago.
Anyone see any obvious reasons for a long entry there?

I was in a short and I had no levels noted in that area. I tightened my stop as price was suspended in that region for a brief period before taking off. FWIW, I exited close to 10 ticks off that low via tightening my stop, but have no idea why price found ready support there other than "too low" :p

Sounds like the people posting to you are very adept bottom-fishers, probably using the DOM action and the speed with which price began running up. The 1-min chart leaves an early hammer which, at an extreme (a brand new high or low is put in on volume in a strong trend), I consider a reversal signal not needing confirmation.

A common way to bottom fish a volatile instrument like CL is to put on a position as soon as price pushes to a significant new high/low, use a tight stop, and eventually catch the major reversal move. The key phrase here is "a significant new high/low", not every little 10-tick push in a middle-aged trend. You want to see a very strong breakout in a strong, mature trend before attempting this or you'll be chopped to death.
 
Quote from ammo:

98.40 ledge,on 15 day(half a lunar cycle)30 min mrkt profile...doj i dont use the ma but u might experiment with 14 day

You're like my husband, always coming up with these strange MA periods for me to look at :D
 
I was long 98.40 when I saw ES going up, and then got stopped out. Mistake was that I did not wait for my indicator to give me a buy signal. (If I waited for a buy signal, I would have made money being long on CL) I really just should have gone long ES on the fib pullback. I was silly.

I ended up with a small loss for the day. I made most of my money back shorting CL. Was listening to CNBCPRO, and they said natural gas and oil inventories were up. So I put in short at a level of resistance where I also thought my indicator would give me a good signal. If this level was broken I felt then we have a true reversal and not a pullback.

CL spiked up and filled me on the short in 5 seconds and was already 7 ticks in my favor less than a second later. I think longs were running stops and had targets in this level, and shorts like me were willing to short, so strong volume came into it. I then took a walk downstairs and when I got back my target was hit.

I notice that volume is starting to get higher for July on CL. Are you switching to July, or will wait to June to switch?

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.html


Quote from NoDoji:

You're like my husband, always coming up with these strange MA periods for me to look at :D
 
Quote from oraclewizard77:

CL spiked up and filled me on the short in 5 seconds and was already 7 ticks in my favor less than a second later. I think longs were running stops and had targets in this level, and shorts like me were willing to short, so strong volume came into it. I then took a walk downstairs and when I got back my target was hit.

I notice that volume is starting to get higher for July on CL. Are you switching to July, or will wait to June to switch?

Nice job end of day. There was a 5-min triangle forming and price had two failed b/o through the upper TL, probably taking out quite a few shorts and attracting longs. I was still confused about direction (I am annoyed by symmetrical triangles), but that third little weakass fbo through the line was my signal, even though price was still well above the 20 EMA.

I traded July today because early on the volume was quite higher on the July contract.
 
Quote from oraclewizard77:

I notice that volume is starting to get higher for July on CL. Are you switching to July, or will wait to June to switch?

My rule of thumb - trade the contract w/ the most volume. It's quick and easy.

Watch volume on the CL the 3rd week of every month and usually Wed or Thu is when you should roll to the new month. Yesterday M started with more but as the day went, the gap narrowed and then today it wasn't even close. Unless you have a trading strategy that capitalizes the volume difference, stick w/ the contract w/ the most volume and you'll never go wrong.
 
Back
Top