CL Redux

totally wrong,there is triple bottomor other many unknown variations there.

picked the bottom, totally missed afternoon's move. even I saw my signal, just kept ignoring it. lost confidence in bottom picking, last picking at 97.49 shouldbe a good one,but feel very bearish and out.

I will not look at daily chart, swing trading is harder. when I think about swing, I want to buy. but from the intra-day chart, absolutely it is a sell, so buy, then dump. did too much,sick of it.


the last one is July's contract.




Quote from NoDoji:

The daily chart is pure indecision with continuation down being far more likely on a technical basis.

A near term two-leg pullback to the 105-106 zone is not out of the question. If price were to revisit the 102.50 level and bulls overwhelmed, price would likely push readily to 105-106; if bears overwhelmed there, retest of the pivot low is more likely, followed by 92.00.

Barring a significant news event, I'd expect to see price fall at tomorrow's open.

If I were looking to put on a swing trade, I'd be sitting on my hands based on the daily chart, waiting for clarity.
More...
 

Attachments

Quote from trader198:

totally wrong
More...

O RLY?

Quote from NoDoji:

Barring a significant news event, I'd expect to see price fall at tomorrow's open.
More...

Check.

Quote from NoDoji:

The daily chart is pure indecision with continuation down being far more likely on a technical basis.
More...

So far, so good.
 
KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Tuesday, May 17, 2011

7:45 AM ET. May 14 ICSC-Goldman Sachs Chain Store Sales Index

Chain Store Sales Index - WoW (previous 0)

Chain Store Sales Index - YoY (previous +2.7%)

8:30 AM ET. April New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits

Total Starts (expected 565K; previous 549K)

Starts Percent Change (expected +2.7%; previous +7.2%)

Building Permits (expected 576K; previous 585K)

Building Permits Percent Change (expected -2.6%; previous +9.6%)

8:55 AM ET. May 14 Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

MoM % Change (previous -2%)

12MonChgPct (previous +4.7%)

52WkChgPct (previous +4.7%)

9:15 AM ET. April Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization

Industrial Production (expected +0.3%; previous +0.8%)

Capacity Utilization (expected 77.6; previous 77.4)

Capacity Utilization Net Change (previous +0.5)

4:30 PM ET. May 13 API Statistical Bulletin

Crude Stocks (Net Change) (previous +2.95M)

Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous -1.84M)

Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous +0.58M)

Refinery Runs (previous 82.2)
 
Quote from Visaria:

Has the market died? Or am am I trading the wrong contract month?

Sharp decrease in volatility today.
More...

volume shifting to july CL, prolly 50/50 today
 
OLD yesterday news
----------------------------

<< some Post Action analysis:

yesterday The reopening brought relief to the eight large refineries , so Leading Gasoline drag caused the drag in CL .

- RBOB closed lowest of last 2 months ...
- The friday 5/13 last hour spike in CL was due to this weekend fear of these Levees break down, once they opened on Saturday .. CL started down after Sunday .. and reversed to high on MOnday morning on ERUO stength ( 100 pips ) then draged to lower by monday close by following RBOB Drag
>>

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/16/markets-energy-nymex-idUSN164878320110516


NYMEX-Crude ends lower as gasoline skids below $3/ga

* Gasoline supply fears ease as Morganza Spillway opened
* Impact of IMF chief's arrest fade, euro up on optimism
* Coming up: API weekly stocks data, 4:30 p.m. EDT Tuesday

* On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude for June
delivery CLc1 settled at $97.37 a barrel, losing $2.28, or
2.29 percent, after trading from $96.90 to $99.65. It was the
lowest settlement since May 6, when the contract ended at
$97.18.

* NYMEX RBOB gasoline for June delivery RBM1 settled at
$2.9311 a gallon, down 14.33 cents, or 4.66 percent, after
trading between $2.9223 to $3.0810. It was the lowest since
prices closed at $2.8437 on March 16.


NEW YORK, May 16 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures
settled more than 2 percent lower on Monday, pressured as
gasoline futures fell below $3 a gallon for the first time
since mid-March.

A gasoline sell-off ignited as the key Morganza Spillway
was opened on Saturday to relieve flooding along the swollen
Mississippi River.

<b> The reopening brought relief to the eight large refineries
that are based along the Mississippi River between Baton Rouge
and Meraux, Louisiana, which collectively process about 12
percent of U.S. refined products. [ID:nN15127280]

Traders monitored the euro/dollar movement through the
day. In late trading, the euro had rebounded from seven-week
lows against the dollar as a European Union meeting backed
support for debt-laden countries. [FRX] [USD/]

Alon USA Energy's (ALJ.N) 80,000 barrel-per-day refinery
in Krotz Springs, Louisiana, should be safe from flood waters
because of new levees built in the past two weeks, Chief
Operating Officer Joseph said. [ID:nN16484897]
</b>

MARKETS NEWS
* A sell-off in recent winners among technology shares
caused the Nasdaq Composite Index to sink, dragging Wall Street
lower on signs of growing unease with pockets of U.S. economic
weakness. [.N]

* Gold was near unchanged as uncertainty about indebted
euro zone countries pressured equities, overshadowing the
positive influence of a weaker dollar. [GOL/]

* Copper rose for a third day, bouncing from overnight
losses as the euro recovered. [METL/]
 
Analysis: ICE v NYMEX for collars, calls, condors

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/16/us-cme-ice-options-idUSTRE74F35020110516

ICE has seen options trade volumes skyrocket, from just 875 contracts in early 2010 to 504,640 in the first four months of 2011. Still it is just a fraction of the deals done on the NYMEX, which a total of 8.71 million contracts traded in the first quarter of 2011, up 27 percent from a year ago.

NYMEX options volumes surged in 2008, peaking at just over 3 million contracts in May, before tumbling to 1.66 million contracts by December. The swing traced the steep rise and precipitous fall of crude prices from a record $147 a barrel to below $33 that year.

The peak and decline in 2008 volumes coincided with the collapse of investment banks Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns, both reportedly into crude options, as well as hedge fund Amaranth and the bankruptcy of storage and pipeline company SemGroup.

Brent has traditionally played second fiddle to WTI in terms of contracts traded, but over the last year it has emerged as the world's benchmark crude contract.

<b>Roughly two-thirds of the world's production prices against it. As NYMEX futures become increasingly tied to regional U.S. inventory conditions, Brent's challenge to WTI has grown.</b>

Brent volumes rose 38 percent in 2010 over 2009. Several times this year they have surpassed the NYMEX contract. Market share has grown due to shifting trading dynamics toward Asia due to growing Chinese demand, as well as moves among commodity indices away from the NYMEX contract to Brent.

The key issue in this shift is the landlocked nature of the U.S. crude benchmark and the market's desire for options that reflect more real-world crude economics, according to Jan Stuart, Global Energy Economist at Macquarie Bank in New York.

"If NYMEX wants to keep its options market share, it's got to fix the futures contract," he said.

Both exchanges are moving to offer more exotic options electronically. Unlike basic calls and puts, exotic options such as straddles, strangles, and collars are more difficult to trade electronically as they can be hard to standardize and execute as a single transaction.

NYMEX offers Average Price Options and Calendar Spread Options, which allow for some of the more complicated structures to be done as a single transaction. ICE currently offers these products only on an over-the-counter basis, but will likely offer them on the main platform once its volume grows, according to the exchange.

"Ultimately, it all comes down to cost and depth," a veteran options trader said.

"Whichever platform offers traders the lowest cost structure and liquidity, will win this battle."
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top