CL Redux

Quote from Picaso:

What's your stop? Thank you.
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These option trades were both premature and badly executed (wrong contract). I finally closed 4 lots on MAY 12 at 14:09.55 for a -0.10 loss per contract, having doubled down (bought 2 lots) on May 11 at 12:14:52 at 0.50. You can double down on long options, because they have positively skewed payoffs, which offsets the problem of double digit kurtosis caused by doubling down. In hindsight, convexity saved my day, because these options went to stub quotes overnight when ES retested 95 lows (kudos to those who predicted it and made money on it). With options there is no need for stops really... that's what convex payoffs are for - to stop losses and then to quickly buy back for you. Of course the expiry was wrong (I pulled up the front month options in error... CL naming convention did not help here... yes, it was that simple - I'm not a cowboy trading with one week to expiry - I duly deserved to lose it all:)
 
Quote from DonCorleone:

Thanks for your presence, Ms. Nodoji! :D

man, by that time, i was too excited to cover my short positions near Picaso's price i called it a day. in hindsight i could've doubled my winnings had i gone long!
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You're welcome! I, too, was short and I covered quickly when that breakout was very weak. Normally I'm always thinking ahead, ready for the next trade, but when you're in a position one direction with a very strong trending move overall, it's tough to shift gears really quick. I covered on the break back up through .18 and was happy as a clam, then suddenly I see the formation on the 1-min chart and I think, "Failed final flag!" and jumped on it long as fast as I could. Very often I miss that early entry for a reversal signal and then I wait through quite a few price gyrations before getting confident enough to start trading in the new direction. I'm very glad to have that 1-min chart right on top of the 5-min, because it's not real clear at first on a 5-min chart, then it just pops out at you on the 1-min.
 
KID , good multiple LONG calls from 97.0 level from your side ...

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Oil settles higher after late-hour comeback

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oi...y-above-98-a-barrel-2011-05-12?dist=afterbell


SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Crude-oil prices settled higher on Friday, staging a comeback in the last hour of floor trading to secure weekly gains of 2.5%, its best since early April.

Gasoline futures edged up as fears the Mississippi River flooding could disrupt refinery production over the weekend helped prices move higher.

<b>A rising dollar pressured oil and other commodities most of Friday, taking the spotlight in the absence of pressing news or other catalysts, analysts said.</b>

A stronger dollar is negative for commodities as it makes them more expensive to holders of other currencies.

<b>
“For those with thicker skin, we continue to remain biased towards the short side, especially if the U.S. floods that are expected to hit the South East in about 10 days time do not damage a number of refineries that lie along the route,” analysts at MF Global said. “That is a big if for now.” Read about refiners gearing up to battle acts of nature.
</b>

A gallon of regular gasoline retailed for an average of $3.982 Friday, slightly below Thursday’s $3.984, according to AAA’s Daily Fuel Gauge Report.

“People are unwilling to go short (on heating oil and gasoline futures) just in case something happens over the weekend,” said Hamza Khan, an analyst with The Schork Group in Philadelphia. “A lot can happen in two days.”
 
yes, I saw the 97.09, the volume is low. actually saw 98.63 breakdown, but very reluctanly. so first I was bottom picking, saw the bounce 97.6, then the second time, I jumped in, stopped out and went short, thought it may free fall another 3points, but it went back, reversed to long, out at my ema because my wife wanted to do some choires, ouch.
when back to desk, it is at 98.6+, want to jump in, but kind of hate to buy above my EMA (lots of time I get burned hard there), dropped to 97.79, relaxed a little bit, bought it at my ema 98.17, still holding for overweek play, may be able to get out at 100+
 

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when the setup occurs, people do go short.
I thought it is in an indicive zone. volume dries up after a big correction, better watch out upside breakout.
when market hits resistance, it reverses and it will reverse hard.

when you look the daily chart, it is exactly at Feb. High. if go short for swing, I will wait it to new low 94.63 with significant volume or when it touches my EMA and fall through EMA under

I am cautious. just like a big runup, feels it will never fall, but it suddenly falls without any notice, and penetrates EMA with schizo's measured move.


whatever weekend happens, will not affect much. just writer's borrowed analysis


Quote from InvestVision:

[people are unwilling to go short (on heating oil and gasoline futures) just in case something happens over the weekend,?said Hamza Khan, an analyst with The Schork Group in Philadelphia. “A lot can happen in two days.?[/B]
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when i looked the daily chart, one setup pops out of my mind

from 114.83 to 94.63 (low), then to 104.7(high), then to 95.25 (low), then to 99.3+....not yet

1 -2-3 1-2-3? I guess where the next stop is.

anybody has the same interpretation
 
Quote from trader198:

when i looked the daily chart, one setup pops out of my mind

from 114.83 to 94.63 (low), then to 104.7(high), then to 95.25 (low), then to 99.3+....not yet

1 -2-3 1-2-3? I guess where the next stop is.

anybody has the same interpretation
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The daily chart is pure indecision with continuation down being far more likely on a technical basis.

A near term two-leg pullback to the 105-106 zone is not out of the question. If price were to revisit the 102.50 level and bulls overwhelmed, price would likely push readily to 105-106; if bears overwhelmed there, retest of the pivot low is more likely, followed by 92.00.

Barring a significant news event, I'd expect to see price fall at tomorrow's open.

If I were looking to put on a swing trade, I'd be sitting on my hands based on the daily chart, waiting for clarity.
 
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