CL Redux

everyone here is going short, I was bottom picking. feel totally pissed

my technique is when it starts to go up, I jump in, then to my 3'intra-day chart EMA, when it hits my EMA, I hesitate to book profit, often fall off a significant amount.

the last trade is schizo' measured move results. break down from 98.5 (99.8 to 98.5) to 75.5 , not exactly. my target is 99. but I did not hold to there since I have something to do.
 

Attachments

Quote from NoDoji:


I borrowed Schizo's broken crystal ball to come up with the 97.50 low. He didn't tell me he had it repaired and it now indicates exact targets :p [/B]
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haha...tx a lot for sharing your analysis! very helpful... where was your initial stop? mine was at 99.56, 1 tick above high of the 2:01pm est 1minute bar. so risk was 17 ticks
 
NYMEX-Crude drops on inventory jump, gasoline tumble

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/11/markets-energy-nymex-idUSN1161938820110511

Wed May 11, 2011 5:46pm EDT
* RBOB gasoline dive triggers brief NYMEX trading halt
* U.S. crude, gasoline stocks jumped last week - EIA
* Coming up: US jobless claims, 8:30 a.m. EDT Thursday

NEW YORK, May 11 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures fell
more than 5 percent on Wednesday after an unexpected jump in
gasoline inventories reported by the government sent RBOB
gasoline futures into a tailspin.

RBOB gasoline futures' 25-cent slump intraday triggered a
five-minute trading halt on the New York Mercantile Exchange
for the motor fuel, heating oil and crude oil futures, the
first such trading stoppage since the 2008 financial crisis.

<b>
U.S. crude oil stocks rose 3.78 million barrels last week,
above expectations,
- and gasoline stockpiles increased by 1.3
million barrels, data from the U.S. Energy Information
Administration showed. [EIA/S]
</b>

Distillate stockpiles fell 843,000 barrels, the EIA said.
Before the release of the data, a Reuters survey of
analysts had forecast crude stocks to be up 1.4 million
barrels, with gasoline inventories seen down 200,000 and
distillate stockpiles up 400,000 barrels.

<b>Crude futures were pressured ahead of the inventory data by
- concerns about slowing economic growth in China
- and the dollar's strength amid continuing euro zone debt worries.</b>
 
Quote from wgp:

haha...tx a lot for sharing your analysis! very helpful... where was your initial stop? mine was at 99.56, 1 tick above high of the 2:01pm est 1minute bar. so risk was 17 ticks
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Mine was 99.55; I notice my charts seem to leave off a tick or so during this volatile price action. I show a high of 99.53 for both the 2:01 and the 1:59 ET bars and figured .55 was a safe bet. It never looked back though, once the entry was confirmed by way of that 1-min chart. I was very tempted to enter the position on the double touch of the upper TL of the triangle, but I waited first for the 5-min bar break, then the inevitable bounce that allows you to get the second mouse entry for the same price as the 5-min bar break.
 
Wow, what a day! Unfortunately I was slammed at work and didn't have time to watch the afternoon at all. I missed a doozie for sure. I hope everyone here killed it.

So I only took two trades this morning before realizing that inventories were today. I missed a fill on a short right after the number, but I didn't mark it.

Also, I'm starting to notice how important the most recent high volume prices are for continuation or failure of trend. I marked a couple of examples in the middle here. Because of this, I'm tinkering with the TOS Volume Profile, using an X number of bars for lookback to see if it helps or not in IDing price that should hold for continuations, and confirmation of trend change. I haven't locked down the bar lookback, but I think it could be promising. If I do add it to the chart, I'll probably have to turn the DOM off for a couple of weeks and just take notes to see if it gives me anything additional worth using.
2011-05-11-TOS_CHARTS_AMFinal.png
 
KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Thursday, May 12, 2011

8:30 AM ET. May 7 Unemployment Insurance Claims Report - Initial Claims

Weekly Jobless Claims (expected 440K; previous 474K)

Weekly Jobless Claims Net Change (expected -34K; previous +43K)

Cont Jobless Claims (prior week) (previous 3733000)

Cont Jobless Claims Net Chg (prior week) (previous +74K)

8:30 AM ET. April PPI

PPI (expected +0.6%; previous +0.7%)

PPI Core (expected +0.2%; previous +0.3%)

PPI Core Crude Goods (previous -2.3%)

PPI Core Intermediate Goods (previous +0.9%)

PPI Crude Goods (previous -0.5%)

PPI Energy Goods (previous +2.6%)

PPI Intermediate Goods (previous +1.5%)

PPI Passenger Cars (previous +0.9%)

8:30 AM ET. April Advance Sales for Retail & Food Services

Overall Sales (expected +0.6%; previous +0.4%)

Sales, Ex-Auto (expected +0.6%; previous +0.8%)

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index (previous -46.2)

10:00 AM ET. March Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales

Total Inventories (expected +0.8%; previous +0.5%)

10:00 AM ET. April 30 DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer

DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (previous 0%)

DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (52 Wk) (previous +2.6%)

10:30 AM ET. May 6 EIA Natural Gas Storage Report

Total Working Gas in Storage (previous 1757B)

Total Working Gas in Storage (Net Change) (previous +72B)

4:30 PM ET. May 2 Money Stock Measures

4:30 PM ET. May 11 Federal Discount Window Borrowings

Primary Credit Borrowings (previous 12M)

Primary Credit Borrowings W/E Daily Avg. (previous 11M)

Discount Window Borrowings (previous 16.28B)

Discount Window Borrowings W/E Daily Avg. (previous 16.61B)

4:30 PM ET. May 11 Foreign Central Bank Holdings

Foreign US Debt Holdings (previous 3.46T)

US Foreign Agency Holdings (previous 763.02B)

Foreign Treasury Holdings (previous 2.69T)
 
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