CL Redux
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
another great day of teamwork on this thread. thanks lady 'n gents!
yes, Ms. NoDoji. I present you the Call of the Day award.
yes, Ms. NoDoji. I present you the Call of the Day award.
no way! i actually took the same trade but entry at .39. but here's the kicker: moved stop way too quickly and got out at .29. so where u were unhappy with 100 ticks, i only got 10. so you're 10 times better...or rather 10^10 better?lol i'm gettin there. gotta learn patience.
questions if i may: what levels did u see that u should've have used as a trail stop instead of 98.41 and how'd u make that great call of 97.5? was it low of 5/9?
long 98.88
25c stop
25c stop
couldn't updaye result in realtime on this one as was watching 'the apprentice'.
I took +20
However, another smallish losing day
Good to see the thread started 'schizo' and Nodoji posting calls.
And Visaria, keep your calls coming, tempted to simply follow you!
I once took .10 on a trade that then ran well over a point without me (this was back in the early fall when a single price swing of a point was rarely seen in CL) because I moved a stop too quickly. I learned my lesson about moving stops too soon that day!
The initial target zone on that trade was the lower tend line of the symmetrical triangle on the 5-min chart. That doesn't mean I was planning to take profits there, because I believe that continuation of a previous strong trend is more common in a triangle breakout.
I watched price there and when the triangle broke, I moved my stop to a couple ticks above the previous 5-min bar (2:05pm ET). There was a pivot line where price made a feeble attempt to hold, and when that broke, I moved my stop a couple ticks above the previous 5-min bar high and let it ride for a while.
My mistake was that instead of continuing to use levels for trailing, I saw price appearing to base in the low 98.30's and I gave it a few chances to break down, got impatient following and locked in the point on my trade. It moved only a tick or two through my stop and turned immediately for the move to my 97.50 target. At the time I tightened my stop, it should've been tightened no closer than 98.63 (break of the 1-min bar high during the basing formation).
I borrowed Schizo's broken crystal ball to come up with the 97.50 low. He didn't tell me he had it repaired and it now indicates exact targets
I rarely post trades, because I rarely have anything open during pit hours besides my charts, but I logged in to this thread to find out why CL stopped trading about 5 seconds after I closed out one of my trades. I thought the short I took @ 99.41 would be worth posting so I could give a real time example of how I manage a trade with a potentially large target in a pretty volatile market (a break of the LOD would be a full point).
Gotta love those triangles!
<<
- some Interesting observations for Crude drop from Reuters.
- I was thinking this OIL drop is initiated mainly by EURO drop ...
- interesting trading halted 5 min. by circuit break, did you guys notice ? I did not . of course today I was most of the time away from computer as busy with other things
>>
---
<b>Gasoline slump drags oil prices to second big drop </b>
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011...E7G601S20110511?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews
(Reuters) - Oil prices tumbled over 4 percent on Wednesday after an unexpected rise in gasoline stocks amid slowing demand sent prices into a tailspin, triggering a five-minute halt in trade and fueling the second big commodities sell-off in a week.
The momentum of gasoline's biggest fall in over two years washed across the oil complex and hit everything from silver to copper to the euro. Early losses stemming from weak Chinese industrial output data and gains in the dollar tied to Greek debt woes spiraled through the day, setting off sell-stops.
The abrupt tumble drove oil volatility to its highest close since mid-March as traders struggled to figure out where markets might find equilibrium after diving more than $13 a barrel from their peak just last week.
"The gasoline market continues to run crazy. Last week's steep slide has increased volatility in the market, and we are still responding skittishly to that," said Gene McGillian, analyst for Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut.
"The market is nervous."
Unlike last Thursday's precipitous fall concentrated in the crude oil market, activity focused on gasoline, which fell after the first rise in stocks in 12 weeks and as traders reckoned it less likely that flooding would affect refineries bordering the Mississippi River.
<b>Trading of crude and refined products halted after gasoline futures dropped 25 cents, the limit down, tripping a five-minute circuit breaker aimed to calm feverish markets. It was the first time the breakers had been hit since the financial crisis in September 2008.</b>
Gasoline fell further after trade resumed, breaking technical levels. Total volume reached a record 240,000 lots.
Brent crude settled down $5.06 to $112.57 a barrel. U.S. crude fell $5.67 to $98.21 a barrel, after touching as low as $97.50 a barrel.
<b>U.S. gasoline futures suffered the biggest daily drop since September 2008, with the June contract settling at $3.1228 a gallon, losing 25.69 cents, or 7.6 percent. It was the biggest loss in dollar terms since September 2008.</b>
Rising fuel costs this year have fueled calls by U.S. lawmakers to cut down on speculation in oil markets.
Those calls grew louder on Wednesday, even as prices fell, with a group of 17 U.S. senators calling on regulators to immediately crack down on "rampant oil speculation" by hastening planned rules to limit concentration.
STRONG VOLUME, HIGH VOLATILITY
Trading volumes, which have spiked amid the frenzied trade seen over the past week, surged again. Brent trading exceeded 770,000 lots in late U.S. activity, about 72 percent over the 30-day moving average, while trading on U.S. crude futures was about 40 percent over that average.
Oil market volatility rose sharply after the release of inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, sending the CBOE's oil volatility index out of a narrow trading range to hit a high of 43.8 percent.
In addition to the surprise build in gasoline inventories, the first rise in stocks after 11 consecutive declines, the EIA report showed a large rise in crude oil stockpiles as gasoline demand continued to trail year-ago levels.
Early pressure on prices came after data showed China's industrial output growth eased much more than expected in April, suggesting the world's second-biggest economy is cooling. Consumer inflation eased modestly to 5.3 percent in April from a 32-month high in March of 5.4 percent.
Crude plunged more than $16 a barrel last week -- down 10 percent on Thursday alone -- with investors weighing factors from the death of Osama bin Laden to the impact of higher fuel and commodity costs on the economies of consumer nations to monetary policy in major economies.
CME Group Inc, which owns the NYMEX, increased margins on Monday amid soaring volatility, and ICE Clear Europe followed suit on Wednesday, creating more downward pressure on prices.
- some Interesting observations for Crude drop from Reuters.
- I was thinking this OIL drop is initiated mainly by EURO drop ...
- interesting trading halted 5 min. by circuit break, did you guys notice ? I did not . of course today I was most of the time away from computer as busy with other things
>>
---
<b>Gasoline slump drags oil prices to second big drop </b>
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011...E7G601S20110511?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews
(Reuters) - Oil prices tumbled over 4 percent on Wednesday after an unexpected rise in gasoline stocks amid slowing demand sent prices into a tailspin, triggering a five-minute halt in trade and fueling the second big commodities sell-off in a week.
The momentum of gasoline's biggest fall in over two years washed across the oil complex and hit everything from silver to copper to the euro. Early losses stemming from weak Chinese industrial output data and gains in the dollar tied to Greek debt woes spiraled through the day, setting off sell-stops.
The abrupt tumble drove oil volatility to its highest close since mid-March as traders struggled to figure out where markets might find equilibrium after diving more than $13 a barrel from their peak just last week.
"The gasoline market continues to run crazy. Last week's steep slide has increased volatility in the market, and we are still responding skittishly to that," said Gene McGillian, analyst for Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut.
"The market is nervous."
Unlike last Thursday's precipitous fall concentrated in the crude oil market, activity focused on gasoline, which fell after the first rise in stocks in 12 weeks and as traders reckoned it less likely that flooding would affect refineries bordering the Mississippi River.
<b>Trading of crude and refined products halted after gasoline futures dropped 25 cents, the limit down, tripping a five-minute circuit breaker aimed to calm feverish markets. It was the first time the breakers had been hit since the financial crisis in September 2008.</b>
Gasoline fell further after trade resumed, breaking technical levels. Total volume reached a record 240,000 lots.
Brent crude settled down $5.06 to $112.57 a barrel. U.S. crude fell $5.67 to $98.21 a barrel, after touching as low as $97.50 a barrel.
<b>U.S. gasoline futures suffered the biggest daily drop since September 2008, with the June contract settling at $3.1228 a gallon, losing 25.69 cents, or 7.6 percent. It was the biggest loss in dollar terms since September 2008.</b>
Rising fuel costs this year have fueled calls by U.S. lawmakers to cut down on speculation in oil markets.
Those calls grew louder on Wednesday, even as prices fell, with a group of 17 U.S. senators calling on regulators to immediately crack down on "rampant oil speculation" by hastening planned rules to limit concentration.
STRONG VOLUME, HIGH VOLATILITY
Trading volumes, which have spiked amid the frenzied trade seen over the past week, surged again. Brent trading exceeded 770,000 lots in late U.S. activity, about 72 percent over the 30-day moving average, while trading on U.S. crude futures was about 40 percent over that average.
Oil market volatility rose sharply after the release of inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, sending the CBOE's oil volatility index out of a narrow trading range to hit a high of 43.8 percent.
In addition to the surprise build in gasoline inventories, the first rise in stocks after 11 consecutive declines, the EIA report showed a large rise in crude oil stockpiles as gasoline demand continued to trail year-ago levels.
Early pressure on prices came after data showed China's industrial output growth eased much more than expected in April, suggesting the world's second-biggest economy is cooling. Consumer inflation eased modestly to 5.3 percent in April from a 32-month high in March of 5.4 percent.
Crude plunged more than $16 a barrel last week -- down 10 percent on Thursday alone -- with investors weighing factors from the death of Osama bin Laden to the impact of higher fuel and commodity costs on the economies of consumer nations to monetary policy in major economies.
CME Group Inc, which owns the NYMEX, increased margins on Monday amid soaring volatility, and ICE Clear Europe followed suit on Wednesday, creating more downward pressure on prices.