CL Redux

[BCE]

CL was tracking the index futures the last few hours. But just a minute ago they rallied and now I see it sold off. As I was typing that it didn't follow them up, it sold off. As I was typing my browser window closed itself. Hate when that happens.

You have to be really careful when trading CL to not assume it will follow the index futures as in one second it decides to do its own thing. Or it can have a more subtle or exaggerated move.

ADD: Sorry GS your pump doesn't seem to have worked. The last 15 minutes or so it sold off almost 2 1/2 points.

 

[BCE]

Further reflection on GS:

They panned it maybe a couple of weeks ago to drive it down and load up. Now they are probably pumping it to unload their positions on the way down.

 

[InvestVision]

Gee who is trading this BIG at pit close who can move $2

just before PIT close 15 min. big slide ...

By looking at CL slide Equities slide , and by looking at Equities slide CL slide further... loop continues

 

[InvestVision]

Goldman Sachs & his clients their trades are bit longer usually holding periods 1 to 3 months based on my reading of 'Goldman Research Reports' on Scribd .. I will post here when I recollect them.

They may do some short term for clients but their major portion is catching up with big Cycle moves up and down.


---
For now here is interesting GoldMan paper for people interested longer term view of the Commodity market .

Commodity Prices and Volatility:Old Answers to New Questions

http://www.scribd.com/doc/53623757/Goldman-Sachs-Explains-Commodity-Price-Cycle

Quote from BCE:

Further reflection on GS:

They panned it maybe a couple of weeks ago to drive it down and load up. Now they are probably pumping it to unload their positions on the way down.

 

[bik]

Quote from BCE:

CL was tracking the index futures the last few hours. But just a minute ago they rallied and now I see it sold off. As I was typing that it didn't follow them up, it sold off. As I was typing my browser window closed itself. Hate when that happens.

You have to be really careful when trading CL to not assume it will follow the index futures as in one second it decides to do its own thing. Or it can have a more subtle or exaggerated move.

ADD: Sorry GS your pump doesn't seem to have worked. The last 15 minutes or so it sold off almost 2 1/2 points.

Lesson learned. I was following the index, saw the bear flag, but went with the movement of the index. Thanks for the info.

 

[bigsnack]

Quote from bik:

Lesson learned. I was following the index, saw the bear flag, but went with the movement of the index. Thanks for the info.

There was a stretch of time also where CL was trading directly inverse to the indexes. I guess it just matters what group and what news item is moving it?

 

[DonCorleone]

as for me, fwiw, i actually don't pay attention to the indexes when i trade. i find it more of a distraction than anything else.

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from Eddiemorra:

Nodoji, when does the power of your apparant subliminal message wear off? (or is it forever now? )

Eddie, it's good forever, OK? Unless you're really TRYING to lose!

Quote from oilfxpro:

Out at 102 , and see my big balls.

Survived all the way down to 94.70 ..........

I'm not sure a 6:1 risk:reward is prudent with CL

P.S. - I was worried about you when I saw the overnight dump that had transpired :eek:

 

[bigsnack]

Hi everyone! Well I'm not going to toot my horn just yet, but I had another rocking day on this thing today. I know the super volatility is helping in a big way, but I felt in control of myself for the most part during the trading day.

AM:

1. Straight ahead setup, but I got tagged for a +1 on the last little bounce right before we started to melt.
2. I jumped my setup a bit early and got taken out on the stop run
3. I at least saw this as a stop run, and I figured that if we could get back up above where volume had just come in around 99.82 that the long was still valid. This thing ripped and didn't even pull back. 100 ticks straight up until the next volume spike.
4. I saw volume increasing on the move up from 6:52 - 7:04 so I figured up was the dominant trend at the time, I just couldn't see anything meaningful. When those whopper orders came in around 7:19, I decided I would buy if we broke above where the volume entered around 99.84's.

PM:

1. This setup looked pretty good, but I took it a bit early when volume came in around 9:53.
2. Again a decent setup, but I got taken out way before the meltdown while trying to trail swings.

Have a great weekend everyone!

 

[RichardRimes]

Quote from RichardRimes:

Is it my imagination or just my broker... priced out a trade for ONE CL and the margin was 13.5K?????? double what it had been...

note the time stamp...6:15 ET...Tues AM..

Sunday and into Mon nite after the OBL takedown I traded CL with the standard overnite margin a $6700ish..several scalps to the downside. This is BEFORE the big tank... sooooooooo

What did "THEY" know and when did they know it????? Perhaps it was silver? did the CL vix spike out of sight? dollar drop? I didn't hear of other brokers upping the margins.

Still has me puzzled today. The only time risk managers raise margin is when the market has dumped...or in the process of dumping. NEVER on big UP moves. This was such a "tell" ..... if I knew then what I'll know in the future If your broker ups your margin...go balls OUT DOWN!!!!! Reality is it sure kept me from even "thinking" of trading CL.