Goldman Sachs now expects crude to rally. :eek: 
http://tinyurl.com/3rtu4fe
time to load up the truck!!
http://tinyurl.com/3rtu4fe
time to load up the truck!!
CL Redux
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
Had good ideas today, with awful implementation. Did some revenge trading in frustration, moved my stop to basically a point were it wasn't a stop anymore, etc.
Last trade: shorted .70 out on a trailing stop (1 min chart) at 19. Target was a point and of course there it goes now
Put me in the green (slightly +100 USD) for the day, but quite a pathetic day for me.
Congrats to those who've been making a killing lately.
Leaving now for a date.
Last trade: shorted .70 out on a trailing stop (1 min chart) at 19. Target was a point and of course there it goes now
Put me in the green (slightly +100 USD) for the day, but quite a pathetic day for me.
Congrats to those who've been making a killing lately.
Leaving now for a date.
Had good ideas today, with awful implementation. Did some revenge trading in frustration, moved my stop to basically a point were it wasn't a stop anymore, etc.
Last trade: shorted .70 out on a trailing stop (1 min chart) at 19. Target was a point and of course there it goes now
Put me in the green (slightly +100 USD) for the day, but quite a pathetic day for me.
Congrats to those who've been making a killing lately.
Leaving now for a date.
---
Vis, they're going to raise margin reqs through the roof, so it will not make much of a difference. Those that are trading now with the same size as usually either are under-capitalized (as myself) or do not, IMHO, understand how to account for volatility in their position sizing (no offense meant to anyone).
Last trade: shorted .70 out on a trailing stop (1 min chart) at 19. Target was a point and of course there it goes now
Put me in the green (slightly +100 USD) for the day, but quite a pathetic day for me.
Congrats to those who've been making a killing lately.
Leaving now for a date.
---
Vis, they're going to raise margin reqs through the roof, so it will not make much of a difference. Those that are trading now with the same size as usually either are under-capitalized (as myself) or do not, IMHO, understand how to account for volatility in their position sizing (no offense meant to anyone).
Goldman sees new oil rally after predicting drop
----
<b> Goldman Sachs said </b>
"We continue to believe that the oil supply-demand fundamentals will tighten further over the course of this year, and likely reach critically tight levels by early next year should Libyan oil supplies remain off the market," it said.
It said it believed that this week's correction in oil prices, which fell from above $125 per barrel of Brent crude to below $106 on Friday, was sparked by disappointing economic data releases and U.S. oil inventory data.
<b>"The sell-off yesterday (May 5) has likely removed a large portion of the risk premium that we believe has been embedded in oil prices, which could suggest further downside may be limited from here."
</b>
"However, we remain wary of potential further downside should economic data releases in coming days continue to disappoint, with the focus now turning to today's (May 6) non-farm payroll report in the United States."
-------
GOOD BUYING OPPORTUNITY?
Goldman rocked markets in April by calling a nearly $20 fall in Brent, saying speculators had pushed prices ahead of fundamentals.
Goldman was one of the first banks to predict $100 oil last decade, in 2005 when prices were closer to $50 a barrel, but it stayed bullish for some time after oil peaked at $147 in 2008.
<b>"In terms of timing, Goldman got it (the crash) right this time. Well done," said an oil trader with a major rival bank. </b>
"It (this week's fall) was a move driven by macro funds after U.S. and German data disappointed and (European Central Bank President Jean-Claude) Trichet did not deliver on yet another rate rise," he said.
<b>
"With Asian funds having liquidated some of their position today I think we will now see prices stabilizing and even if U.S. jobs data is poor this afternoon, I don't think it will turn as horrible as yesterday," he added.
</b>
Other major commodity players among banks, Barclays Capital and Deutsche Bank, said on Friday the current levels might be a good buying opportunity.
"While further downside from potential weaker macro releases cannot be ruled out, the general trend from here should be higher, rather than lower, in our view," said Amrita Sen, an oil analyst at Barclays.
She added that worries about tight supplies and unrest in the Middle East will outweigh concerns about U.S. gasoline demand destruction or slower Asian demand due to inflation.
Deutsche Bank commented: "We believe composure will return to commodity markets as underlying fundamentals remain bullish in our view... We believe the collapse in oil prices this week is more a positioning event than a change underlying fundamentals."
Andrew Moorfield, the head of oil division at Lloyds, said he saw oil at around $110 in 2011 and $100-$110 going forward.
"Despite this week, the demand curve for oil remains with an upward trajectory... Globally, this general fall in commodities prices will reduce the drag many were starting to think they were having on economic growth."
<b>
Colin O'Shea, head of commodities at Hermes, who helps manage over $2 billion, also said the correction was a good opportunity for investors to get into the market if they missed out on the previous rally.
"Fundamentally, in the energy space and in crude oil, not a lot has actually changed. We have got diminishing spare capacity, globally demand is picking up, we have got some supply-side issues -- so the factors that caused the price rises right throughout 2010 are still there," he said.
</b>
----
<b> Goldman Sachs said </b>
"We continue to believe that the oil supply-demand fundamentals will tighten further over the course of this year, and likely reach critically tight levels by early next year should Libyan oil supplies remain off the market," it said.
It said it believed that this week's correction in oil prices, which fell from above $125 per barrel of Brent crude to below $106 on Friday, was sparked by disappointing economic data releases and U.S. oil inventory data.
<b>"The sell-off yesterday (May 5) has likely removed a large portion of the risk premium that we believe has been embedded in oil prices, which could suggest further downside may be limited from here."
</b>
"However, we remain wary of potential further downside should economic data releases in coming days continue to disappoint, with the focus now turning to today's (May 6) non-farm payroll report in the United States."
-------
GOOD BUYING OPPORTUNITY?
Goldman rocked markets in April by calling a nearly $20 fall in Brent, saying speculators had pushed prices ahead of fundamentals.
Goldman was one of the first banks to predict $100 oil last decade, in 2005 when prices were closer to $50 a barrel, but it stayed bullish for some time after oil peaked at $147 in 2008.
<b>"In terms of timing, Goldman got it (the crash) right this time. Well done," said an oil trader with a major rival bank. </b>
"It (this week's fall) was a move driven by macro funds after U.S. and German data disappointed and (European Central Bank President Jean-Claude) Trichet did not deliver on yet another rate rise," he said.
<b>
"With Asian funds having liquidated some of their position today I think we will now see prices stabilizing and even if U.S. jobs data is poor this afternoon, I don't think it will turn as horrible as yesterday," he added.
</b>
Other major commodity players among banks, Barclays Capital and Deutsche Bank, said on Friday the current levels might be a good buying opportunity.
"While further downside from potential weaker macro releases cannot be ruled out, the general trend from here should be higher, rather than lower, in our view," said Amrita Sen, an oil analyst at Barclays.
She added that worries about tight supplies and unrest in the Middle East will outweigh concerns about U.S. gasoline demand destruction or slower Asian demand due to inflation.
Deutsche Bank commented: "We believe composure will return to commodity markets as underlying fundamentals remain bullish in our view... We believe the collapse in oil prices this week is more a positioning event than a change underlying fundamentals."
Andrew Moorfield, the head of oil division at Lloyds, said he saw oil at around $110 in 2011 and $100-$110 going forward.
"Despite this week, the demand curve for oil remains with an upward trajectory... Globally, this general fall in commodities prices will reduce the drag many were starting to think they were having on economic growth."
<b>
Colin O'Shea, head of commodities at Hermes, who helps manage over $2 billion, also said the correction was a good opportunity for investors to get into the market if they missed out on the previous rally.
"Fundamentally, in the energy space and in crude oil, not a lot has actually changed. We have got diminishing spare capacity, globally demand is picking up, we have got some supply-side issues -- so the factors that caused the price rises right throughout 2010 are still there," he said.
</b>
Quote from DonCorleone:
Goldman Sachs now expects crude to rally. :eek:
http://tinyurl.com/3rtu4fe
time to load up the truck!!
Quote from DonCorleone:
Goldman Sachs now expects crude to rally. :eek:
http://tinyurl.com/3rtu4fe
time to load up the truck!!
Hi Guys
Everyone's killing it today? Can't help but laugh.
After they drove it down a couple of weeks ago with their panning it call and no doubt loaded up, now that they're long they've decide to pump it. What else would one expect from GS? ADD I was talking to a guy in a coffee shop here the other day from Silicon Valley. And he told me that in the late 90's when he was a broker they'd be calling their clients and recommending buys of the exact same thing their traders were dumping, and vice versa. No new information here.
Now at 99.30 , close seems 100 +
question is do we see 98.0 before close it to 100+ , it seems not but you never know
question is do we see 98.0 before close it to 100+ , it seems not but you never know
i see bear flag...