shoot, i'm still short from 105. what should i do, what should i do...
CL Redux
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
Nodoji coulda made about a million bucks today on oil!! lol, what a mad mad day.
Staying out now.
Up about 35 pips or so.
Overdue to revert back to losing every trade, but will enjoy it whilst it lasts.
Staying out now.
Up about 35 pips or so.
Overdue to revert back to losing every trade, but will enjoy it whilst it lasts.
Speaking of counter trends. When I got here a few minutes ago I played that mini bounce long near 104. Good thing I got out right away as it seemed to be fading. It may find its way back there at some point. Massive selling today.
Was thinking earlier which one of us saw 101 coming before 121 last week?
You just never know. 
Hope everyone followed the trend today and killed it. When I saw oil down so much overnight, I dug through my old notes to find the lower support levels and I stopped at the key daily level 102.70. I had a short on while it was crashing deep into the 101.00's and price was all over the map. I just sat there with my trailed stop way up in the 102.00's and couldn't decide what to do :eek:
I'm stepping away from my desk till the final hour.
Have fun!
I'm stepping away from my desk till the final hour.
Have fun!
dar's one of dem candlesticks with long tail on 10 min chart. what do you call dem?
I remember this guy from a few months ago.
Currencies
May 5, 2011, 11:14 a.m. EDT
Dollar jumps versus euro after Trichet disappoints
Japanese yen jumps to post-quake highs
By Deborah Levine and Polya Lesova, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) â The U.S. dollar rose by the most in two weeks against the euro, but stayed down versus the Japanese yen, on Thursday after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet omitted the kind of comments that traders were expecting to indicate another rate hike forthcoming for the euro zone.
âSo far it is what he has not said that is most important, with no signal that the ECB has changed its hawkish tone to the point where it is pulling the next rate hike into June instead of July, in the face of âelevatedâ uncertainty,â said Alan Ruskin, global head of G-10 FX strategy at Deutsche Bank.
Also, a report showed U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly climbed again in the latest week, further calling into question the countryâs ability to grow faster, weighing on stocks and causing trader to reverse some bets against the dollar.
Markets have reached a crossroads
Investor sentiment has been undermined as reality begins to hit home and global growth prospects come under scrutiny
The dollar index (BOARD-DXY) , which measures the greenback's performance against a basket of six currencies, turned up to 73.849, from 73.100 before the data and versus 73.095 in late North American trading.
The euro (U.S.:EURUSD) turned down sharply to $1.4605 from $1.4815 before the data after the ECB maintained its key rate unchanged at 1.25%. It rose by the most since mid-April, from around $1.4834 late Wednesday.
Against the Japanese yen, the dollar (U.S.:USDYEN) stuck to its losses, buying 79.97, from Â¥80.61. Itâs fallen for the past five sessions as well.
The Labor Department said the number of people who filed initial requests for jobless benefits surged by 43,000 to a seasonally adjusted 474,000 in the week ended April 30. While several special factors were noted, itâs still far from the direction that economists had been hoping for, and raises concerns that Fridayâs monthly payrolls data may be weaker than forecast. Read story on jobless claims.
In Trichetâs post-meeting press conference, he said the ECB never pre-commits on rates and will continue to monitor all developments in deciding what to do next. Read about ECB, Bank of England.
The words âmonitors very closelyâ will imply a rate increase in July, strategists at Credit Agricole said before his press conference. He tends to use the phrase âstrong vigilanceâ against inflation as indicating an imminent rate increase, which in this case would imply one in June.
His comments about the U.S. dollar also indicated European policy makers are aware a that a too-strong euro is not desirable, said Stephen Gallo, head of market analysis at Schneider Foreign Exchange.
âThis type of rhetoric will probably keep euro strength at bay for some time,â he said.
The euro has gained 9.2% against the dollar this year, mostly as investors expect rates in Europe to rise sooner than in the U.S. as the Federal Reserve remains on hold.
U.K. pound, Japanese yen, aussie
The British pound also extended losses after the U.S. data, having been little changed after the Bank of England left its policy rate unchanged, as expected.
Sterling (U.S.:GBPUSD) turned down 0.% to $1.6419.
The U.K. is also expected to raise rates before the Fed, which has boosted the pound 5.2% this year versus the greenback. Itâs lost 3.8% against the euro.
Analysts noted weak data around the world that may be prompting traders to reverse several types of carry trades -- in which a trader borrows in a cheap currency to buy higher yielding assets. Often, those trades have been funded in U.S. dollars and yen, used to buy the Australian and New Zealand dollars (to buy their higher yielding debt), stocks or commodities, all of which have come under pressure lately.
On Thursday, the Australian dollar fell after the country's retail sales for March came in well below expectations. The Aussie (U.S.:AUDUSD) fell 0.9% to $1.0651, compared with the dayâs high at $1.0770. Itâs come off a record high touched in recent days.
âThere has been weak PMI data in the US, China and European non-core countries, weak retail sales data in countries including Germany, and generally weak U.K. data,â said strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman. âWhile we believe that taken together the data may represent a slowing of growth prospects for the second quarter, we believe it to be temporary and that this does not represent a turning point for growth.â
That reversal of carry trades has helped take the yen back up to a level not seen since just after Japanâs massive earthquake and tsunami. Japanese officials worries a strong yen would hold back the countryâs ability to recover, and prompted central banks around the world to take the extraordinary step of intervening in currency markets to stem the yenâs gains.
Still, analysts said they donât expect an actual intervention right now because Japan has been on holiday.
However, âthe risk of at least verbal intervention in the coming sessions is rising significantly,â said strategists at RBC Capital Markets.
Currencies
May 5, 2011, 11:14 a.m. EDT
Dollar jumps versus euro after Trichet disappoints
Japanese yen jumps to post-quake highs
By Deborah Levine and Polya Lesova, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) â The U.S. dollar rose by the most in two weeks against the euro, but stayed down versus the Japanese yen, on Thursday after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet omitted the kind of comments that traders were expecting to indicate another rate hike forthcoming for the euro zone.
âSo far it is what he has not said that is most important, with no signal that the ECB has changed its hawkish tone to the point where it is pulling the next rate hike into June instead of July, in the face of âelevatedâ uncertainty,â said Alan Ruskin, global head of G-10 FX strategy at Deutsche Bank.
Also, a report showed U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly climbed again in the latest week, further calling into question the countryâs ability to grow faster, weighing on stocks and causing trader to reverse some bets against the dollar.
Markets have reached a crossroads
Investor sentiment has been undermined as reality begins to hit home and global growth prospects come under scrutiny
The dollar index (BOARD-DXY) , which measures the greenback's performance against a basket of six currencies, turned up to 73.849, from 73.100 before the data and versus 73.095 in late North American trading.
The euro (U.S.:EURUSD) turned down sharply to $1.4605 from $1.4815 before the data after the ECB maintained its key rate unchanged at 1.25%. It rose by the most since mid-April, from around $1.4834 late Wednesday.
Against the Japanese yen, the dollar (U.S.:USDYEN) stuck to its losses, buying 79.97, from Â¥80.61. Itâs fallen for the past five sessions as well.
The Labor Department said the number of people who filed initial requests for jobless benefits surged by 43,000 to a seasonally adjusted 474,000 in the week ended April 30. While several special factors were noted, itâs still far from the direction that economists had been hoping for, and raises concerns that Fridayâs monthly payrolls data may be weaker than forecast. Read story on jobless claims.
In Trichetâs post-meeting press conference, he said the ECB never pre-commits on rates and will continue to monitor all developments in deciding what to do next. Read about ECB, Bank of England.
The words âmonitors very closelyâ will imply a rate increase in July, strategists at Credit Agricole said before his press conference. He tends to use the phrase âstrong vigilanceâ against inflation as indicating an imminent rate increase, which in this case would imply one in June.
His comments about the U.S. dollar also indicated European policy makers are aware a that a too-strong euro is not desirable, said Stephen Gallo, head of market analysis at Schneider Foreign Exchange.
âThis type of rhetoric will probably keep euro strength at bay for some time,â he said.
The euro has gained 9.2% against the dollar this year, mostly as investors expect rates in Europe to rise sooner than in the U.S. as the Federal Reserve remains on hold.
U.K. pound, Japanese yen, aussie
The British pound also extended losses after the U.S. data, having been little changed after the Bank of England left its policy rate unchanged, as expected.
Sterling (U.S.:GBPUSD) turned down 0.% to $1.6419.
The U.K. is also expected to raise rates before the Fed, which has boosted the pound 5.2% this year versus the greenback. Itâs lost 3.8% against the euro.
Analysts noted weak data around the world that may be prompting traders to reverse several types of carry trades -- in which a trader borrows in a cheap currency to buy higher yielding assets. Often, those trades have been funded in U.S. dollars and yen, used to buy the Australian and New Zealand dollars (to buy their higher yielding debt), stocks or commodities, all of which have come under pressure lately.
On Thursday, the Australian dollar fell after the country's retail sales for March came in well below expectations. The Aussie (U.S.:AUDUSD) fell 0.9% to $1.0651, compared with the dayâs high at $1.0770. Itâs come off a record high touched in recent days.
âThere has been weak PMI data in the US, China and European non-core countries, weak retail sales data in countries including Germany, and generally weak U.K. data,â said strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman. âWhile we believe that taken together the data may represent a slowing of growth prospects for the second quarter, we believe it to be temporary and that this does not represent a turning point for growth.â
That reversal of carry trades has helped take the yen back up to a level not seen since just after Japanâs massive earthquake and tsunami. Japanese officials worries a strong yen would hold back the countryâs ability to recover, and prompted central banks around the world to take the extraordinary step of intervening in currency markets to stem the yenâs gains.
Still, analysts said they donât expect an actual intervention right now because Japan has been on holiday.
However, âthe risk of at least verbal intervention in the coming sessions is rising significantly,â said strategists at RBC Capital Markets.