CL Redux
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
We may be entering this May 2010 phase ....
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Quote from EON Kid:
Mayday, Mayday: Suspicious Similarities To Last Year For Stocks
http://blogs.forbes.com/greatspecul...picious-similarities-to-last-year-for-stocks/
---
Quote from InvestVision:
good one .. here are few points
<< my comments
all these pattern similarities of this APRIL month to last year APRIL/MAY 2010 may be one of the MAJOR factor in Goldman Sachs last week OIL SELL call
>>
1/ Exactly a year ago, oil had spiked up from $72 a barrel in February to almost $90 at the end of April (a high not seen again for 7 months), raising concerns that high oil prices would be a problem for the economy.
Currently, oil has spiked up from $84 a barrel in February to $112 a barrel, raising concerns that high oil prices could be a problem for the economy.
2/ Exactly a year ago, gold was in a nice rally after a pullback low in February. Currently, gold has been in a nice rally after a pullback low in February.
3/ A year ago, the respected Shiller âCyclically Adjusted P/E Ratioâ (CAPE) indicated that the S&P 500 was 30% overvalued. It currently shows it to be 40% overvalued.
<b>
4/ A year ago, the Investors Intelligence sentiment survey of investment newsletters had climbed into its historic danger zone of more than 50% bullish. Last week it reached 55.4% bullish, only 16.3% bearish, the largest spread since the bull market top in 2007, and higher than its level in late April last year.
5/ A year ago today, the VIX Index (also known as the Fear Index), which measures the sentiment of options players, was at an extreme low 16.3, showing a total lack of fear or bearishness (high level of bullishness and complacency), a level usually seen at market tops.
The VIX today is at 14.7, an even more extreme low, showing even less fear.
6/ A year ago today we were approaching the marketâs âSell in May and Go Awayâ unfavorable season, and complaining about the low trading volume. The market rally this week, as we approach this yearâs âSell in May and Go Awayâ unfavorable season, has been with low volume of fewer than 1 billion shares traded daily on the NYSE.
Thatâs not even a complete list of the similarities to a year ago today.
7/ And itâs uncomfortable. Because exactly a year ago today, in the midst of the excitement over earnings reports, the market was just three trading days from topping out into the scary April-July correction of last year.
8/ By the time the correction ended in July, GDP growth had slowed to just 1.7% in the second quarter, and the Fed panicked, reversed its plans to end the stimulus efforts, and began promising another round of quantitative easing (QE2).
Thereâs no guarantee the last two situations will also be similar, but the similarities up to this point are spooky and worthy of investorsâ attention.
</b>
---
Quote from EON Kid:
Mayday, Mayday: Suspicious Similarities To Last Year For Stocks
http://blogs.forbes.com/greatspecul...picious-similarities-to-last-year-for-stocks/
---
Quote from InvestVision:
good one .. here are few points
<< my comments
all these pattern similarities of this APRIL month to last year APRIL/MAY 2010 may be one of the MAJOR factor in Goldman Sachs last week OIL SELL call
>>
1/ Exactly a year ago, oil had spiked up from $72 a barrel in February to almost $90 at the end of April (a high not seen again for 7 months), raising concerns that high oil prices would be a problem for the economy.
Currently, oil has spiked up from $84 a barrel in February to $112 a barrel, raising concerns that high oil prices could be a problem for the economy.
2/ Exactly a year ago, gold was in a nice rally after a pullback low in February. Currently, gold has been in a nice rally after a pullback low in February.
3/ A year ago, the respected Shiller âCyclically Adjusted P/E Ratioâ (CAPE) indicated that the S&P 500 was 30% overvalued. It currently shows it to be 40% overvalued.
<b>
4/ A year ago, the Investors Intelligence sentiment survey of investment newsletters had climbed into its historic danger zone of more than 50% bullish. Last week it reached 55.4% bullish, only 16.3% bearish, the largest spread since the bull market top in 2007, and higher than its level in late April last year.
5/ A year ago today, the VIX Index (also known as the Fear Index), which measures the sentiment of options players, was at an extreme low 16.3, showing a total lack of fear or bearishness (high level of bullishness and complacency), a level usually seen at market tops.
The VIX today is at 14.7, an even more extreme low, showing even less fear.
6/ A year ago today we were approaching the marketâs âSell in May and Go Awayâ unfavorable season, and complaining about the low trading volume. The market rally this week, as we approach this yearâs âSell in May and Go Awayâ unfavorable season, has been with low volume of fewer than 1 billion shares traded daily on the NYSE.
Thatâs not even a complete list of the similarities to a year ago today.
7/ And itâs uncomfortable. Because exactly a year ago today, in the midst of the excitement over earnings reports, the market was just three trading days from topping out into the scary April-July correction of last year.
8/ By the time the correction ended in July, GDP growth had slowed to just 1.7% in the second quarter, and the Fed panicked, reversed its plans to end the stimulus efforts, and began promising another round of quantitative easing (QE2).
Thereâs no guarantee the last two situations will also be similar, but the similarities up to this point are spooky and worthy of investorsâ attention.
</b>
