CL Redux

<b>NYMEX-Crude dips ahead of expected soft GDP data </b>

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/28/markets-energy-nymex-idUSN2830029120110428

* NYMEX May RBOB gasoline and heating oil contracts expire on Friday.
* U.S. Energy Information Administration natural gas storage is due at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) on Thursday.

Thu Apr 28, 2011 8:26am EDT
* Lower North Sea cargoes limit oil losses
* Expectations for slowed U.S. growth data weighs on oil
* Coming up: EIA natgas data, 10:30 a.m. EDT Thursday

NEW YORK, April 28 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures slipped in choppy trading on Thursday, pulling back from a fresh peak above $113 a barrel ahead of economic data expected to show slower growth in the United States last quarter.

<b>
- A sliding dollar and
- signs of lower North Sea supplies had supported prices earlier.

Crude futures continue to find support from strong U.S. gasoline futures RBc1 after Wednesday's report from the Energy Information Administration showed gasoline inventories fell for the 10th week in a row last week, dropping to their lowest level since August 2009. [EIA/S]
</b>
FUNDAMENTALS
* On the New York Mercantile Exchange, June crude CLM1 dipped 12 cents, or 0.1 percent to $112.64 a barrel by 8:17 a.m. EDT (1217 GMT), trading from $112.36 to $113.70.

* Two cargoes of Forties crude oil due to load in May have been dropped from the export program because of production problems, traders said.
[ID:nWLA9142]

* Marathon Oil Corp (MRO.N) said it was beginning to bring units back online following a planned turnaround at its 78,000 barrel per day Canton, Ohio, refinery. [ID:nWNBB9411]

* U.S. economic growth likely braked sharply in the first quarter as higher food and gasoline prices crimped consumer spending. [ID:nN27171497]

* Output of Upper Zakum crude from the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) in the United Arab Emirates will fall in late April and May by as much as 40 percent because of a partial field outage, traders said. [ID:nL3E7FS1I0]

* Syrian security forces have killed at least 500 civilians in a
crackdown of a "peaceful democratic uprising", Syrian human rights
organization Sawasiah said. [ID:nLDE73R0OE]

* Russia's Prime Minister Vladimir Putin ordered an increase the export duty on oil products from May 1, adding that companies would be compensated with a lower mineral extraction or excise tax. [ID:nLDE73R19M]

* The United States threw a financial lifeline to rebels controlling
eastern Libya while forces loyal to Muammar Gaddafi harried insurgent strongholds in the west and far southeast of the country. [ID:nLDE73Q2D8]

* Yemen's opposition warned the government that violence against street protesters demanding the removal of President Ali Abdullah Saleh could derail a deal aimed at ending the political standoff. [ID:nLDE73R0FR]


MARKETS NEWS
* The dollar slid to three-year lows, helping U.S. crude oil tap a
2-1/2 year high, and stocks rose worldwide on bets after the Federal Reserve's downbeat statements Wednesday that ultra-loose U.S. policy will continue driving money into riskier assets. [MKTS/GLOB]

*Gold prices hit record highs after the Fed signaled continued
accommodation as the dollar's three-year low against a basket of major currencies attracted non-U.S. investors. [GOL/]

UPCOMING DATA/EVENTS
* At 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT) the advance U.S. first quarter gross
domestic product is expected to be up at an annualized 2 percent rate,
below the fourth quarter's 3.1 percent growth rate.
* U.S. jobless claims data released at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT) on
Thursday.
 
<b>
First-quarter U.S. economic growth slows to 1.8%
Inflation measures pick up
</b>
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/first-quarter-us-economic-growth-slows-to-18-2011-04-28

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The U.S. economy slowed markedly in the first quarter and inflation accelerated, clear evidence of the double whammy on the economy from higher gasoline prices.

In its first estimate Thursday, the Commerce Department said gross domestic product rose at a 1.8% annual rate between January and March, slower than the 3.1% pace in the prior three months.

Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected a slightly weaker 1.7% growth rate. See our economic calendar with forecasts of major indicators.

One of the big stories of the first quarter was weaker consumer spending. There was also a dramatic decrease in government spending and businesses slowed investments. The trade sector was also a slight drag on growth after boosting output in the fourth quarter.

“Slower consumer spending growth was an important contributor to the deceleration in overall growth in the first quarter, as were sharp declines in federal defense spending and expenditure by hard-pressed state and local governments,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc.

Markets had a somewhat negative reaction to
- the GDP and
- jobless claims data released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern

“The lackluster economic performance in the first quarter is less than generally anticipated at the start of the year, but we do expect a resumption of moderate growth going forward,” said Kathy Bostjancic, director of macroeconomic analysis for The Conference Board.

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke put himself squarely in this camp at his first-ever post-rate decision press conference Wednesday. Bernanke said Fed officials do not expect the slowdown in the first quarter to last. Read about historic Bernanke press conference.

<b>
The Fed is forecasting growth between 3.1% and 3.3% this year, which implies a big pick-up for the rest of the year.

But the weak growth in the first three months of the year was certainly one factor in the Fed’s decision not to take any steps this week towards an exit from its ultra-low monetary policy.
</b>

The weak GDP report also isn’t good news for President Barack Obama and Democrats. Obama’s approval ratings have sunk recently because of the slow recovery.

In the past four quarters, the economy has risen 2.3%, not fast enough to generate many new jobs and aggressively cut the unemployment rate.

Inflation rose in the first quarter at the fastest pace in over two years.
 
Quote from Picaso:

Chop, chop...

Ideas?
The 60-minute looks bullish to this wide-eyed noob, and I wasn't around to catch it at .47, so I'm looking for a place to get long--probably somewhere around a return to the 20 EMA on a 5-minute chart.
 
seems good short developing around 113.45 - 113.60 level for kind of double top short

add: if we get those levels , seems it may fade even before ... hard to tell :p

Quote from Picaso:

Chop, chop...

Ideas?
 
Quote from Eddiemorra:

just waiting to get stopped again, but target is at 112.60 for what its worth
Ah, I see the resistance at 113.15 that you were looking at. I may need to get long on a return to that now that we've busted through.

ADD: And the chop chops on . . . still waiting.
 
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