CL Redux
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
Looks volatile.
[/B]
UN on Syria
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http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/04/26/syria.unrest/index.html
(CNN) -- More than 400 people have been killed in Syria across several weeks as the government has cracked down on protesters seeking reform, a human rights group in the country said Tuesday.
The Syrian Human Rights Information Link reported at least 416 people have died since March 18 in incidents linked to the violence. The group named 413 of those killed and cited three unidentified bodies. While the vast majority are apparently civilians, the group's list describes a few of the dead as members of the army or police.
The U.N. Security Council was expected to focus on Syria Tuesday as it considers a statement condemning the violence.
A U.N. diplomat said a draft Security Council statement sponsored by France, Portugal and the United Kingdom condemned the violence and called for restraint. It also supported Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon's call for an independent investigation on the matter.
A final statement could be agreed upon by Tuesday, the diplomat said.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy said Tuesday "the situation in Syria is unacceptable." He added that -- as has been the case for the Ivory Coast and Libya -- "nothing will happen without a resolution from the Security Council."
British Foreign Secretary William Hague condemned "any violence and killings perpetuated by Syrian security forces."
"This violent repression must stop," Hague said in a statement. "President Assad should order his authorities to show restraint and to respond to the legitimate demands of his people with immediate and genuine reform, not with brutal repression."
Asset Freeze
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The United States is preparing new sanctions against members of al-Assad's regime who are overseeing the violent crackdown, according to several senior U.S. officials with knowledge of the action. A new Treasury Department executive order targeting senior officials accused of human rights abuses would involve an asset freeze and travel ban, as well as prohibiting them from doing business in the United States.
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http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/04/26/syria.unrest/index.html
(CNN) -- More than 400 people have been killed in Syria across several weeks as the government has cracked down on protesters seeking reform, a human rights group in the country said Tuesday.
The Syrian Human Rights Information Link reported at least 416 people have died since March 18 in incidents linked to the violence. The group named 413 of those killed and cited three unidentified bodies. While the vast majority are apparently civilians, the group's list describes a few of the dead as members of the army or police.
The U.N. Security Council was expected to focus on Syria Tuesday as it considers a statement condemning the violence.
A U.N. diplomat said a draft Security Council statement sponsored by France, Portugal and the United Kingdom condemned the violence and called for restraint. It also supported Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon's call for an independent investigation on the matter.
A final statement could be agreed upon by Tuesday, the diplomat said.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy said Tuesday "the situation in Syria is unacceptable." He added that -- as has been the case for the Ivory Coast and Libya -- "nothing will happen without a resolution from the Security Council."
British Foreign Secretary William Hague condemned "any violence and killings perpetuated by Syrian security forces."
"This violent repression must stop," Hague said in a statement. "President Assad should order his authorities to show restraint and to respond to the legitimate demands of his people with immediate and genuine reform, not with brutal repression."
Asset Freeze
-------------------
The United States is preparing new sanctions against members of al-Assad's regime who are overseeing the violent crackdown, according to several senior U.S. officials with knowledge of the action. A new Treasury Department executive order targeting senior officials accused of human rights abuses would involve an asset freeze and travel ban, as well as prohibiting them from doing business in the United States.
On the Daily chart below , few notables
4/225, 4/26 : we have DOJI bars
4/4, 4/5 : we have DOJI bars on these Monday , tuesday also ( next days bull run )
3/24 , 3/25 : DOJI bars but it is Thursday , Friday ( next week sell off ) , this may not apply here as we are not on Thu/Friday ..
4/225, 4/26 : we have DOJI bars
4/4, 4/5 : we have DOJI bars on these Monday , tuesday also ( next days bull run )
3/24 , 3/25 : DOJI bars but it is Thursday , Friday ( next week sell off ) , this may not apply here as we are not on Thu/Friday ..
Thinking of putting in a buy limit order at 111.20 or so with a stop loss at 110.98 or so--maybe I could catch an overnight dip and then IV's bull run. Cheers or jeers?
Oil above $124 as weak dollar supports
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/27/us-markets-oil-idUSTRE72D01W20110427
(Reuters) - Brent crude oil edged above $124 a barrel on Wednesday as support from a weaker dollar ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting expected to maintain its loose monetary policy countered rising U.S. inventories.
The dollar slid to a three-year low as investors bet the Fed meeting, which ends on Wednesday, would keep an easy policy, helping support dollar-denominated oil that has attracted investment as a hedge against inflation.
Brent crude for June rose 31 cents to $124.45 a barrel
U.S. crude was up 22 cents to $112.43.
"Investors are being very cautious ahead of the Fed meeting and prices are drawing support from a weak dollar," said Serene Lim, an analyst at ANZ. "Oil will continue to trade in this range till the outcome of the Fed meeting is known at least."
U.S. crude stocks jumped 4.9 million barrels last week as imports increased, the American Petroleum Institute (API) said on Tuesday before the release of the government's inventory report later on Wednesday.
Violence in the Middle East, which has largely shut down Libya's oil exports, has spilled over to Syria and Yemen, helping put a floor under the market.
U.S. INVENTORIES
Before the Fed's decision at 1630 GMT, investors will be watching out for the latest snapshot of U.S. fuel supplies.
A weekly report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) is expected
- to show crude stocks rising by 800,000 barrels -- much less than the increase reported by the API on Tuesday.
- Gasoline stocks are expected to fall 1.1 million barrels,
- while distillates are forecast to increase by 100,000 barrels.
U.S. crude has risen 23 percent so far this year and consumers in the world's largest economy are starting to show signs of being hurt by higher fuel costs.
President Obama on Tuesday urged producers to lift crude output as he sought to deflect public anger over high gasoline prices. U.S. motor fuel prices have become a heated political issue after pushing toward $4 a gallon.
Obama's appeal followed comments from top oil exporter Saudi Arabia earlier in the day that it was not comfortable with high oil prices and a strike last week by truckers in China protesting over higher fuel costs.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/27/us-markets-oil-idUSTRE72D01W20110427
(Reuters) - Brent crude oil edged above $124 a barrel on Wednesday as support from a weaker dollar ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting expected to maintain its loose monetary policy countered rising U.S. inventories.
The dollar slid to a three-year low as investors bet the Fed meeting, which ends on Wednesday, would keep an easy policy, helping support dollar-denominated oil that has attracted investment as a hedge against inflation.
Brent crude for June rose 31 cents to $124.45 a barrel
U.S. crude was up 22 cents to $112.43.
"Investors are being very cautious ahead of the Fed meeting and prices are drawing support from a weak dollar," said Serene Lim, an analyst at ANZ. "Oil will continue to trade in this range till the outcome of the Fed meeting is known at least."
U.S. crude stocks jumped 4.9 million barrels last week as imports increased, the American Petroleum Institute (API) said on Tuesday before the release of the government's inventory report later on Wednesday.
Violence in the Middle East, which has largely shut down Libya's oil exports, has spilled over to Syria and Yemen, helping put a floor under the market.
U.S. INVENTORIES
Before the Fed's decision at 1630 GMT, investors will be watching out for the latest snapshot of U.S. fuel supplies.
A weekly report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) is expected
- to show crude stocks rising by 800,000 barrels -- much less than the increase reported by the API on Tuesday.
- Gasoline stocks are expected to fall 1.1 million barrels,
- while distillates are forecast to increase by 100,000 barrels.
U.S. crude has risen 23 percent so far this year and consumers in the world's largest economy are starting to show signs of being hurt by higher fuel costs.
President Obama on Tuesday urged producers to lift crude output as he sought to deflect public anger over high gasoline prices. U.S. motor fuel prices have become a heated political issue after pushing toward $4 a gallon.
Obama's appeal followed comments from top oil exporter Saudi Arabia earlier in the day that it was not comfortable with high oil prices and a strike last week by truckers in China protesting over higher fuel costs.
Fed policy meeting: What to expect?
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/world-news/fed-policy-meeting-what-to-expect_538709.html
- I am interested is to hear his comments when they finish the purchasing of the treasuries totaling USD 600 billion, which is supposed to be finished by end of June.
- Apart from the immediate short-dated market, the lack of trust between the banks still prevails. They are extremely reluctant to lend each other period money from three months to six months, nine months to one year. Until that improves, there is an exact correlation between quantitative easing and wholesale deposit market. I think they are fairly closely aligned. <b>But clearly Mr Bernanke has plans in this. So, we are obviously very interested to hear why he thinks it can happen.</b>
Q: In that case, if he plays true to form and says something in the nature of perhaps not continuing quantitative easing immediately, but retains the tone of keeping monetary policy loose for an extended period of time or rates low for an extended period of time. What do you expect will be the reaction of the markets, especially the dollar?
A: The dollar in my opinion will continue to be weak. I am not saying itâs going to fall out of bed because it has fallen an awfully long way.
- But where others are cutting their deficit or making some effort to do so and while other countries, particularly the European Union have shown no reluctance to put interest rates up in the face of inflation, the United Kingdom is a little bit of an exception to the rule because of the recovery process is very brittle.
- But when you look at also the likes of China, India where you faced the music, you have not abrogated your responsibilities and you have increased interest rates. <b>So, really until such time as all these factors are taken into account by United States, I think itâs unrealistic to think that the dollar will firm up.</b>
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/world-news/fed-policy-meeting-what-to-expect_538709.html
- I am interested is to hear his comments when they finish the purchasing of the treasuries totaling USD 600 billion, which is supposed to be finished by end of June.
- Apart from the immediate short-dated market, the lack of trust between the banks still prevails. They are extremely reluctant to lend each other period money from three months to six months, nine months to one year. Until that improves, there is an exact correlation between quantitative easing and wholesale deposit market. I think they are fairly closely aligned. <b>But clearly Mr Bernanke has plans in this. So, we are obviously very interested to hear why he thinks it can happen.</b>
Q: In that case, if he plays true to form and says something in the nature of perhaps not continuing quantitative easing immediately, but retains the tone of keeping monetary policy loose for an extended period of time or rates low for an extended period of time. What do you expect will be the reaction of the markets, especially the dollar?
A: The dollar in my opinion will continue to be weak. I am not saying itâs going to fall out of bed because it has fallen an awfully long way.
- But where others are cutting their deficit or making some effort to do so and while other countries, particularly the European Union have shown no reluctance to put interest rates up in the face of inflation, the United Kingdom is a little bit of an exception to the rule because of the recovery process is very brittle.
- But when you look at also the likes of China, India where you faced the music, you have not abrogated your responsibilities and you have increased interest rates. <b>So, really until such time as all these factors are taken into account by United States, I think itâs unrealistic to think that the dollar will firm up.</b>
Here is some speculative work from my side on CL action today
assumptions: basis for these 2 cases is equities and EURO maintain around current levels as of now , for any major changes in these 2 you need to adjust CL accordingly ..
As of now S&P: +4 points
EURO: 1.4650
A) Inventory report Bullish: crude : -1 Million gasoline: -3 million barrels
-- prices shoot up to 113 + , then take off from there
B) Inventory report Bearish: crude : +3 Million gasoline: -1.5 million barrels
-- prices will drop to 111.65 level for a brief 30 minute period after 10:30 EDT report then take off from there and maintain 112.50 + levels
These 2 cases are for 1.5 hours after inventory report , after that it will take normal FED meeting expectation Factor/ EURO/Equities ..
assumptions: basis for these 2 cases is equities and EURO maintain around current levels as of now , for any major changes in these 2 you need to adjust CL accordingly ..
As of now S&P: +4 points
EURO: 1.4650
A) Inventory report Bullish: crude : -1 Million gasoline: -3 million barrels
-- prices shoot up to 113 + , then take off from there
B) Inventory report Bearish: crude : +3 Million gasoline: -1.5 million barrels
-- prices will drop to 111.65 level for a brief 30 minute period after 10:30 EDT report then take off from there and maintain 112.50 + levels
These 2 cases are for 1.5 hours after inventory report , after that it will take normal FED meeting expectation Factor/ EURO/Equities ..
