CL Redux

McCain arrives in Libyan rebel stronghold
http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/04/22/libya.war/index.html?hpt=C1

1/ Obama said Thursday that U.S. Predator drones were deployed in the North African nation as part of the NATO-led military efforts there.

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said, however, that the deployed drones were forced to return due to bad weather.

2/ Unmanned aerial vehicles offer more precise targeting because their low-flying capability allows for better visibility, "particularly on targets now that have started to dig themselves into defensive positions," Gates said.

3/ Large explosions and the sound of jets over Tripoli Thursday night indicated NATO has likely increased the intensity of its airstrikes on Gadhafi's key command and control military sites.

<b>
4/ The alliance has issued a new warning to Libyan civilians to stay away from military areas, foreshadowing plans for attacks on targets seen as strategically significant in stopping the government's attacks against civilians, a NATO military official said Thursday.


5/ The next phase will largely involve increased airstrikes on key Gadhafi command, control and communications sites in and around Tripoli, although targets in other areas could be hit as well, said the official, who declined to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter.
</b>

6/ After two days of fierce fighting, <b>Libyan rebels were able to take control of a post office building on the main thoroughfare of Tripoli Street, </b>rebel military spokesman Ahmed Bani told CNN Friday.

"This victory is quite important for us, and it shows that we are advancing and we are heading in the right direction," Bani said.
He said some pro-Gadhafi fighters were negotiating for their lives and that the rebels gave them assurances in exchange for a surrender of weapons.
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<b> How gaddafi is forcing students into Fight </b>
http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/2011/04/201141885827731124.html

In a Misurata medical clinic lays one of Gaddafi's fighters. The 19-year-old boy, who does not want his identity revealed, was a student of electrical engineering in Tripoli. When the fighting started and his lessons were cancelled he says he was forced to join Gaddafi's troops.

"We were kept locked in the camp and trained for two weeks and then they took us to the battalion," he explains.

Told only that they would be fighting foreign mercenaries, they were brought to Misurata, he recounts. When they came under heavy fire from the rebels, their officer turned and ran. The boy followed and says his own brigade shot him.

"The instructions were that nobody should go back. I lay on the ground bleeding for one-and-a-half hours," he says.

Breaking into tears, he adds: "I haven't seen my family in more than a month."
 
good one .. here are few points

<< my comments
all these pattern similarities of this APRIL month to last year APRIL/MAY 2010 may be one of the MAJOR factor in Goldman Sachs last week OIL SELL call

>>

1/ Exactly a year ago, oil had spiked up from $72 a barrel in February to almost $90 at the end of April (a high not seen again for 7 months), raising concerns that high oil prices would be a problem for the economy.

Currently, oil has spiked up from $84 a barrel in February to $112 a barrel, raising concerns that high oil prices could be a problem for the economy.

2/ Exactly a year ago, gold was in a nice rally after a pullback low in February. Currently, gold has been in a nice rally after a pullback low in February.

3/ A year ago, the respected Shiller ‘Cyclically Adjusted P/E Ratio’ (CAPE) indicated that the S&P 500 was 30% overvalued. It currently shows it to be 40% overvalued.

<b>
4/ A year ago, the Investors Intelligence sentiment survey of investment newsletters had climbed into its historic danger zone of more than 50% bullish. Last week it reached 55.4% bullish, only 16.3% bearish, the largest spread since the bull market top in 2007, and higher than its level in late April last year.

5/ A year ago today, the VIX Index (also known as the Fear Index), which measures the sentiment of options players, was at an extreme low 16.3, showing a total lack of fear or bearishness (high level of bullishness and complacency), a level usually seen at market tops.

The VIX today is at 14.7, an even more extreme low, showing even less fear.


6/ A year ago today we were approaching the market’s ‘Sell in May and Go Away’ unfavorable season, and complaining about the low trading volume. The market rally this week, as we approach this year’s ‘Sell in May and Go Away’ unfavorable season, has been with low volume of fewer than 1 billion shares traded daily on the NYSE.

That’s not even a complete list of the similarities to a year ago today.


7/ And it’s uncomfortable. Because exactly a year ago today, in the midst of the excitement over earnings reports, the market was just three trading days from topping out into the scary April-July correction of last year.



8/ By the time the correction ended in July, GDP growth had slowed to just 1.7% in the second quarter, and the Fed panicked, reversed its plans to end the stimulus efforts, and began promising another round of quantitative easing (QE2).

There’s no guarantee the last two situations will also be similar, but the similarities up to this point are spooky and worthy of investors’ attention.

</b>
Quote from EON Kid:

Mayday, Mayday: Suspicious Similarities To Last Year For Stocks

http://blogs.forbes.com/greatspecul...picious-similarities-to-last-year-for-stocks/
 
If US unmanned Drones are successful next week taking major Tanks/armor vehicles and Command and Control centers in Tripoli that can shift balance in favour of Rebels.

we need to watch carefully the success of these US Drones in Tripoli , Misrata and Sirt citites....

But the problem is all these 'Command and control' the gaddafi family and military officers ( and some military ammunition ) who are issuing commands are I SUSPECT in the basement of Hospitals and Schools for sure.

How can you attack those when they are in the basements of schools and hospitals and gaddafi makesure the school are with full of students everyday .

- John McCain visit is good moral boost for Rebels ...
 
Quote from oilfxpro:

I did some tests a few years ago , the U S open at U k time 13.30 , New York 8.30 produced the most profitable trades , the European morning sessions were not as profitable.Which times do you find best?

Yeah I'm finding that there are some key times where reversals tend to happen. Since I am on the West Coast all times are PST.

5:30 (which I miss because I'm still rubbing my eyes)
6:00
7:00
8:45
9:30
10:50 - 11:10 - I haven't nailed it down yet.

This is currently on limited data, as I'm still building my database. As you mentioned as well, my entries are most successful first thing in the morning, and also after 10:30 PST. I am trying to get in as much face time as I can at the moment, but I will likely be very picky with my trades when I begin trading the CL live. Ideally I think I will only take the 6:00 and the 10:30 trades so that I can better focus on the ES (my bread and butter for live trading). Currently I am comfortable with the fact that I may NEVER trade the CL live, but I am thoroughly enjoying the learning process.
 
http://palmoil.com/exchanges/nymex/holidays

NYMEX Trading Hours and Public Holidays
Trading Hours: from 9:00 a.m. - 2:30 p.m. (New York time)

HOLIDAYS (2011):

Date Holiday Schedule
Fri, Jan 1 New Year's Day
Mon, Jan 17 Martin Luther King, Jr. Day
Mon, Feb 21 President's Day
Fri, Apr 22 Good Friday

Mon, May 30 Memorial Day
Mon, Jul 4 Independence Day
Mon, Sep 5 Labor Day
Thu, Nov 24 Thanksgiving Day
Mon, Dec 26 Christmas Day


CME Globex Holidays http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/holiday-calendar/

Date U.S. Holiday

14-18 January ---- Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.
18-22 February ---- President’s Day
21-24 April ---- Good Friday

27-31 May ---- Memorial Day
1-5 July ---- Independence Day
2-6 September ---- Labor Day
7-10 October ---- Columbus Day
10-11 November ---- Veteran’s Day
23-25 November ---- Thanksgiving
23-27 December ---- Christmas
30 December 2011 - 3 January New Year’s
 
Libya notable events

http://blogs.aljazeera.net/live/africa/libya-live-blog-april-22

6:53pm
A Qatari military aircraft has arrived in Tunisia to build an advanced field hospital at Al-Zahabiyah area, near the border with Libya to treat people injured in Al-Gaddafi brigades attacks.

The plane is carrying a medical team, the first batch of equipment the hospital, 25 tonnes of medicines, medical supplies and ambulances.

6:19pm
AFP news agency has reported that president Nicholas Sarkozy agrees 'in principle' to visit rebel-held Benghazi.

6:18pm
AFP news agency has reported that France is in favour of giving frozen Libyan funds to rebels.

5:05pm
Reuters news agency has reported that US Senator John McCain on Friday called on the United States to recognize Libyan rebels as the true voice of the Libyan people and transfer frozen Libyan assets to them.

"I would encourage every nation, especially the United States, to recognize the Transitional National Council as the legitimate voice of the Libyan people," McCain said.

"They have earned this right and Gaddafi has forfeited it by waging war on his own people."
 
High gasoline prices prompt Justice Department to eye energy industry

http://articles.cnn.com/2011-04-21/...line-prices-gas-prices-higher-prices?_s=PM:US
Attorney General Eric Holder made no secret the move is a direct response to public angst, not to current evidence of any illegal conduct.

"Rapidly rising gasoline prices are pinching the pockets of consumers across the country," Holder said in a written statement released at the Justice Department.

"We will be vigilant in monitoring the oil and gas markets for any wrongdoing so that consumers can be confident they are not paying higher prices as a result of illegal activity," he said.

The working group will report to the existing Financial Fraud Task Force, which in turn reports to the attorney general.

The new working group will be composed of representatives of the Justice Department, the National Association of (State) Attorneys General, the Treasury Department, the Energy Department, and several financial regulatory agencies.

Holder said he is asking the group to explore "whether there is any evidence of manipulation of oil and gas prices, collusion, fraud, or misrepresentations at the retail or wholesale levels that would violate state or federal laws."

While promising official vigilance, the attorney general acknowledged regional differences in gasoline prices, and said, "It is also clear that there are lawful reasons for increases in gas prices, given supply and demand."
 
Nigeria :good map to give summary of the country
- see at the bottom of the page to see north south divide on wealth and all oil fields are in south

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13107867

Nigeria is Africa's biggest oil producer and among the biggest in the world but most of its people subsist on less than $2 a day.
The oil is produced in the south-east and some militant groups there want to keep a greater share of the wealth which comes from under their feet. Attacks by militants on oil installations led to a sharp fall in Nigeria's output during the last decade.
- But in 2010, a government amnesty led thousands of fighters to lay down their weapons.

----------
The head of the African Union observer team, former Ghanaian President John Kufuor, told the BBC he was satisfied.

"Nigeria hasn't been served too well for decades electorally, but to our pleasant surprise we found the people of Nigeria generally are the security against this," said Mr Kufuor.

"All of them co-operating to give the nation a befitting election."
 
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